Arctic methane is the biggie, on a ten year timescale x120 more potent then CO2 … this we know already from many sources online, I mean blogs and material from sensible people not alarmist junk of which the latter I tend to avoid.
Explaining to a new friend yesterday its not just the two and three deg C rise by at my guess 2026 (I’ve a £1k wager on this for 3C+ by end 2026) that will in itself hurt us ie its just a hotter day to endure … BUT its the effect on world interconnected natural systems with locked in feedbacks and associated drives that respond at such fine-scale limits that will alter this biosphere to become un-livable, this literally one thou inch thick biosphere on an eight inch diameter childs football. This is thinner than any layer of modern varnish, more like the old fashioned shellac. Already the jet stream has split into two loops and is streaming hot moist air over the Arctic. My guess is that the end of the greenland ice sheet I quote “By 2100” as bandied in the general press is woefully overestimated; the nature of ice melt is a law unto itself.
Note that of recent years no-one is bandying the expression that ‘nature is resilient’ anymore …
8 inch dia = 8k miles dia of planet Earth
therefore .001 in (one thou inch) = 1 mile approx.
cigarette paper = 0.001 in (copier paper is 0.004 in)
And still diesel drivers idle their engines all day, at work, at supermarkets whilst waiting, during lunchbreaks etc etc.
So much if not all of our CO2 to O conversion shuts down at increased CO2 levels, it does not / can not ‘rise to the occasion’, ie green plants and forests, diatoms, algae. Likewise my particular ‘hobby horse’ and fascination with diatoms is a critical factor, the irony of using ancient deposits of oil and gas mainly derived from diatoms has led to their own and our demise, see also the loss of the symbiotic relationship of diatoms to bryozoans ie coral reef. No-one has ever seen with the naked eye a diatom yet nearly all of our petrol and oil carbon lifestyle is based upon them.