All of this is only my guesswork in realising the need to self-isolate, but I bet I’m not far off the mark. Here I am in NE England and last nights Guardian website has a map of the UK and by estimating the size of the pictorial data it looks to be seven deaths from the virus in the North East.
Lets say two weeks to show symptoms and a week to die therefore seven deaths show the scene at three weeks ago; at 1% fatality therefore 700 infected as of three weeks ago.
If contamination doubles every three days therefore 96,000 carriers are present right now Friday in this region ie north east England. Divide that by say thirty big supermarkets as a handy indicator of populations or areas (and where we still congregate) and it means 3,200 carriers in each of thirty areas across the region today. Lets use the Morpeth, Northumberland area as an illustration, divide 96,000 carriers by 30 and we get 3,200 carriers in that area and probably most if not all shop at the main supermarket. As my g/f concedes everything I’ve feared / predicted has come true.
I’ve been using disposable gloves for a month, have feared groceries, post and deliveries for the last three weeks, all are left in the hallway for a few day before opening and post and parcels only received wearing fresh gloves that are immediately binned. I operate 3m not 2m distancing and get angry when I see needless waffle at the supermarket or wherever. Remember this virus as with all viruses has never been seen by any form of optical light microscope, only are they detectable as huge populations grown in the lab or by a scanning electron microscope. Covid-19 loves the respiratory tract and is delighted to hitch a free ride on the exhaled air from peoples lungs.
I can well see why the UK Government wants us all to be self-isolating and its importance for this simple arithmetic to indicate IT IS RIGHT NOW that we need to self-isolate.
My fears and prediction of the USA catastrophe is now apparent. A combination of trump idiocy and pay as you go is incendiary to the corona virus situation. His recent cant and BS of ‘all well by Easter’ is exactly the wrong message, this will excuse people to be less vigilant. I’ve always alluded to the similarity of Mao and trump, at this rate he’ll join the big-boy league of mass killings through incompetence posing as ability.
My fearful prediction sorry to say is that our sample area of Morpeth could well have thirty two deaths by three weeks time. We heard on the bbc radio news a few days ago of instructions for each Parish to locate thirty burial plots and a site for a mass grave. It was unfortunate the term ‘herd immunity’ was much bandied two or three weeks ago, in fact this is what must happen but its not nice to hear.
I don’t think we need much of mathematical modelling from Imperial (no disrespect intended) to see what is happening, fag packet workings are sufficient, all we need know are transmission rates, multiplying factors such as rates of growth and time from infection to death and the exact numbers of deaths in the last 24 hrs. I’ve marked in my diary to revisit this post in three weeks ie Friday 17 April and see how close my fearful guesses have materialised.
I feel so sorry for frontline NHS Staff, badly let down with essential supplies and merely a face mask, ill-fitting pinny and gloves is tragic, to some extent the Johnson Government has repeatedly whitewashed over this glaring shortfall. I also feel so sorry for people in London and also supermarket check-out staff are in a woefully vulnerable position.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019
https://www.theguardian.com/world/coronavirus-outbreak
As detailed below in the Guardian today thank goodness only one country has a so-called leader so hopeless. I think also and I’ve never heard anyone say as such being out of the EU I think has allowed us to react (mostly) effectively.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/trump-narcissism-american-blood-coronavirus
And a day later an appraisal of trump performance yet again confirms his gross unsuitability to be a President of anything …. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster
Hint: never speak directly to anyone, turn 90 degrees if absolutely essential you must speak, merely nod at the supermarket check-out.
Minimise / elimate all needless chatter to anyone outside the home.
Make it a 3m rule, 2m is too close to be safe. Exercise social distancing within the family, within the home, walk out for exercise but keep apart!
Only accept post and parcels with gloves, bin the gloves and leave the items unopened / untouched for a few days.
Wear disposable gloves at all times and particularly if needing to go to a shop. Try not to hop from shop to shop, ideally one shop only. If no gloves use a food bag or kitchen towel, bin all once out of the shop. Use a disposable bag and gloves when gripping the shopping basket or trolley, safer to self scan.
Ideally shed your outside or shopping clothes once home and wash them straight away.
Remember no-one has ever seen a virus through an optical microscope, they are so small, an analogy could be when fine ground chilli powder is everywhere and we know from experience how it can ‘get everywhere’ when cooking.
Avoid fools ! And regard everyone as being a carrier therefore avoid.
The unfortunate but accurate term ‘herd immunity’ means that possibly everyone will become infected.
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