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IPCC

The IPCC is an organisation I am very sceptical of, the experts are ‘hand-sorted’ so to speak which as we know with the lamentable omission of Prof Peter Wadhams in their last big science-fest a few years ago and so by not publishing his work (the considerations of a world ranking Arctic ice expert) … this means mostly the IPCC can only offer a sanitised and diluted version of what could actually happen to us all.

Heres a case in point of the IPCC not liking the extent of what could occur in the next few years re climate change and how they throw out of the window any modelling that scares or offends them, its bad science, selective science of the worst sort, be sure to look at the chart …

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07/un-climate-panel-confronts-implausibly-hot-forecasts-future-warming

It must be remembered that if we model climate on a childs eight inch football the portion that we inhabit ie half a mile up and half a mile down equates to the thickness of a cigarette paper, one thousandths of an inch which is half the thickness of a human hair… FACT.

This means the chemistry set known as our worldwide climate systems are easily jarred and reactive to new ingredients ie temperature, ocean flow, atmospheric modifications, jet stream modification, ice loss, methane eruption, carbon particles ie dust, the loss of algal activity in the oceans, changing weather patterns over whole continents, etc etc.

In other words ‘crazy cussed stuff’ … such as drought where we don’t want it (lets say Americas grainbelt or Chinas rice bowl) and rain where it should not be for example in the Gobi Desert or the Himalayas (just guessing). Today we hear in the news that California is losing its electricity supply, upstream theres not enough water to power the hydro-electric generators.

Therefore in the above link which exposes the IPCC dislike of what could happen and refusal to accept modelling for a more catastrophic future than they are prepared to admit, I personally go with Sam Carana and fear the temperature rise will be greater than any contemplated by the IPCC, we are being spoon fed only what is deemed digestible by certain experts and vested interest.

What is fundamental to all this forecasting and modelling is that EVERYTHING seems somehow to be involved in a myriad of self reinforcing feedback loops. For instance today we hear on the news that Siberian fires are releasing carbon particles right up into the North Pole, this was easily seen on NASA Worldview a few days ago. Therefore the ice becomes darker, absorbs heat quicker and … BINGO melts faster from above, never mind the warmer water attacking from beneath. It will be near an instantaneous event when all ice ‘flashes’ from the Arctic, an event of probably weeks, months but not decades.

We have to fight, we cannot go down without a fight, but will it do any good? Not really.

It saddens me that hubris, name it what you will, will never un-mend peoples needs for vehicles of any sort which always one way or another carry huge carbon costs in manufacture and huge problems of disposal.

  • We need to live near our work, to walk there or maybe an electric or hydrogen trolleybus.
  • We need a one child policy everywhere. And applaud those with no children.
  • Car ownership of any sort needs to be a rarer thing.
  • Vastly reduce the American style burger culture.
  • Much reduce airflight for personal and even business need.
  • Minimise food waste, ie see your supermarket near closing, trolleyfulls of meat for disposal!
  • Only eat what you need.
  • Look at the footprint for concrete as a building material.
  • Look at the longevity of wind production, not so green.
  • etc etc name anything you like, there will be a downside to it!

If we lived ‘biblically’ simple farmers and traders and craftspeople I’m sure we would not be in this mess.

Will any of the above bullet points help us all … not really.

Climate change, a laymans guide.

I often feel there is difficulty in finding or locating the latest on climate change ie increasing methane, ice loss, feedback loops etc.

This overview by Sam Carana holds up well, succinct and eminently digestible for the layman; I am a layman.   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

It illustrates the stacking pernicious influences which in themselves arithmetically ensure sufficiently our downfall and even for this guaranteed scenario Sam Carana plays a light touch re the inevitable compounding and accelerating positive feedback loops that will push us into a whole new series of situations. Its all a quite dire mix, highly ironic as its mainly the consumption of oil and gas from ancient diatoms that has led to our demise, taking away the fundamental first layer of oceanic food chain and 20% of the worlds CO2 >O conversion. And yet no-one has ever seen a diatom with the naked eye.

I think I’m correct in saying it was independent scientist James Lovelock that discovered the gas DMS a product of oceanic plankton and its importance. I suggest read his autobiography, an instructive blend of practical science, talent and an independent thinking mind.

Also …  https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/dms–the-climate-gas-youve-never-heard-of/

Sam Carana in a more recent post highlights the disregard paid by the latest IPCC (Sept 2019) briefing / report in which NO FIGURE IS QUOTED for the effects of subsea methane in its three forms, frozen hydrates, microbial, capped gas deposits. The IPCC are criminal in this neglect. However not as criminal as donald trump in the rolling back and eradication of decades of wise strategies to husband the planet more sensibly; but of course trump would know nothing of the natural world.

 

Greenland ice, carbon capture, climate debate.

Debate is perhaps not the best term but a useful search tag for google to pick-up on, action is more likely a better route. Yet here below is recent material to help us focus and realise we need action and fast.

https://www.channel4.com/news/greenland-melting-four-times-faster-than-predicted

From the above …

02:02 … Greenland ice loss id 8,500 tons per second… PER SECOND.

02:15   Half permanent arctic ice has gone.

09:20   How we will have to live and the 3 trillion that is half of what is present day subsidy to the fossil fuel industries that SHOULD be directed to carbon capture.

Author David Wallace-Wells in the above at 09:20 informs us that the IMF estimated world subsidy to traditional fossil fuel industries is approx 5.3 trillion annually; wheras a spend of 3 trillion could possibly completely neutrelise world carbon emission to zero by  utilising carbon capture.

Here below is author David Wallace-Wells that when talking to scientists ‘off-the-record’ realised the disjoint between what scientists think and realise themselves and what is released to the public for general media / news consumption.

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Wallace-Wells

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Uninhabitable_Earth

https://www.penguin.co.uk/articles/2019/jan/david-wallace-wells-on-climate-change-and-the-uninhabitable-earth/

 

News from Siberia.

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/fire-and-flood-apocalypse-with-wildfires-raging-and-dire-threat-to-baikal-worlds-deepest-lake/

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/more-than-two-million-hectares-on-fire-in-siberia-with-turndra-on-fire-destryoing-the-permafrost/

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/massive-wildlife-tragedy-as-bears-and-foxes-flee-taiga-while-smaller-animals-suffocate-in-smoke/

The wildfires are easily found using NASA worldview.

 

 

 

 

We will all know the Lena and the Ob.

Most certainly as these immense rivers bigger than we westerners can visualise every minute every day supply vast quantities of warmed water onto the East Siberian ice shelf, the home of vast up to 20km deep stored carbon in oxygenless ie anaerobic conditions; the perfect laboratory for the production of vast amounts of methane as well as a catastrophic volume of methane ready to blow. The underwater ice cap itself has luckily sealed the methane, that is now going fast as it anywhere and everywhere on the circumpolar map of the Arctic where it shows white or pale blue, theres lots.

We should also realise the rivers Yenisey and the Kolyma.

Its a simple fact even a small portion of this impending methane release will destroy all CO2 conversion as we know it and us with it, last week at last a news story carried re ocean cloud formation and plankton (DMS) … to my mind too little reporting, too light ie no mention of the irony of diatom collapse (see where our oil and gas originated) and CO2 reduction quite futile. As in the link below the IPCC report is way off target (the usual plain underestimation / reduced easier to swallow figures misleadingly put forward) … but hey … why alarm anyone or Governments when we can trundle onwards with half a smile and half a conscience.

Mostly I know where we are going and this latest s/h windows 10 acquisition seems to thwart new or latest links. I cannot listen to Paul Beckwith now, only a briefer zippier presentation could hold my interest. Names I will still google for are Prof Kevin Anderson, Prof Peter Wadhams, Prof Paul Erlich, links in order below.

Prof Kevin Anderson  … https://tyndall.ac.uk/people/kevin-anderson

Prof Peter Wadhams … http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/

Prof Paul Erlich … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich

 

 

Heres Sam Carana ie arctic-news.blogspot.

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/ipcc-report-climate-change-and-land.html

 

And below a screen capture and a link for Siberia, it is big, the biggest landmass and the shallowest iceshelf we could imagine. Yet who in the west until now thinks of the rivers Lena and the Ob? Note vast plumes of smoke from forest fires, zoom in to see the areas alight.

Siberia worldview screenshot 11 Aug 2019 https://go.nasa.gov/2OPxvI4
Siberia worldview screenshot 11 Aug 2019 https://go.nasa.gov/2OPxvI4

I honestly don’t think I’ll be sat here in ten years time, in 2029, its quite impossible; there is just no way basic laws and interactions of physics and chemistry can be thwarted.

 

 

Scientists warning.

A month ago (June 21st 2019) I blogged and drew attention to how nonsensical, silly and downright intentionally misleading was a Yale presentation on youtube telling us how insignificant and quite benign was the impending release of methane (in three forms ie frozen hydrate, microbial and geological) as the permafrost melts, as it is in fact doing right now quite happily in all shallow Arctic sea including the East Siberian Ice Shelf.

My post re Yale Climate Connections nonsense … https://climate-change-briefing.com/2019/06/21/i-am-baffled/

A motley crew indeed … its called ‘funding’ …  pure and simple.

I’ve written this post energised by viewing today the vid below saying exactly as I do that basically the Yale presentation is garbage, staggering in its complacency and lack of knowledge; just a total and tragic disconnect from where we are at present.

The vid below is an embed on this page … http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

 

 

I think I’m correct in saying that last years folly of the 2018 IPCC Report did not include Dr Peter Wadhams Arctic Ice material (world expert) and ignored impending methane release.

In the above attention is drawn to the misleading nature of the Yale Climate Connections presentation (02:00), the importance of the Russian work on methane release (14:00) and how Natalia Shakhova cannot get her work peer reviewed or published as her data indicates methane levels her reviewers do not want to read of !! Basically this is censorship.

Below is a good intro to the subject … Natalia Shakhova, Univ Alaska, Fairbanks.

 

 

Another, easy read intro … https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/06/20/the-dangerous-methane-mystery/

Whilst we are here, a link below to a worthwhile read, climate change and the microbial aspect …

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-019-0222-5