How slow and stupid we are …

I read Sam Carana and anything from Guy McPherson; he has a critical enquiring mind, one of the youngest Professors ever appointed in the USA.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

The slowness,  blindness and inaccuracy of the IPCC is astounding. I think I’m correct in saying didn’t include subsea methane release in their most recent ‘modelling’ (highly inaccurate anyway) and ignored melting Arctic ice. Lewis Carrol could have written the script. Levels that are in the short term are the levels that will destroy us, say x130 for methane; theres no medium or long term worth considering, we’ll not be here.

Anyways, 2C will come and go v quickly, better start thinking 3C plus, which of course means human life is teetering and gone.  Think about it, feedback loops of enormous world encompassing comprehensivity, nature in the raw so to speak, grain production areas disabled, theres nowhere else it can be done, corporations had better get ‘superfood’ substitutes developed v quickly. Thank God I don’t live in a large centre of population, water distribution / delivery / pumping and sewage disposal will become so critical.  And so on and so on …

So many pundits / governments / media voices seem to wish to project a false prediction that somehow or other 2 degrees C of warming will leave us all at a levelling off, when in fact the whole system of nature is now a frightening series of triggers and feedback loops revving up to go faster.

  • ice loss
  • jet stream
  • weather patterns
  • sea level rise
  • methane
  • green growing things ‘go in reverse’ for CO2 conversion
  • algae / diatom crash the oceans die (witness diatom / bryozoan symbiosis ie coral reef.
  • grain production
  • insects (pollinators) gone
  • aluminium levels
  • drinking water
  • power stations are nearly all coastal
  • etc

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/new-high-temperature-records-set-in-alaska-again-as-heat-wave-is-set-to-relinquish-grip/70008760

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hottest-weather-of-season-on-tap-for-northeast-as-record-challenging-heat-wave-builds/70008824

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48810170

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/arctic-winter-warmest-record-temperature-global-warming-climate-change-north-pole-melting-ice-caps-a8243631.html

 

 

Permafrost, or what was permafrost.

The term permafrost always stuck in my mind from my UK secondary school teacher Mr Lowes, as if he knew its importance, he probably did.  This practical hands-on in your face geography, knowledge and recognition of landscape is a trillion miles in every respect from climate deniers and principally trump and his dastardly callous refusal to ‘get real’ to acknowledge and act accordingly. Its as if ‘act accordingly’ is something singularly missing in the trump gene pool. To ban the use of ‘climate change’ from USA science is a crime, a war crime. Likewise all his hangers-on and sycophants are aiding and abetting his crooked regime, they help no-one whatsoever, blood ties for so many at the top or feeding influence and outlook to an already skewed mentality is a recipe for disaster. As with journeying to the North and knowing of thawing permafrost, the only trips trump takes in his excruciatingly expensive motorcade are the many times built landscape, prestige thoroughfares. Ironic, a reality star (…only in his own mind) yet as far from reality as any hood or crook or bent lawyer that ever existed in the green pastures and open vistas of New York.

Never mind, all things trump WILL come to an end. Yet in the meantime the USA has minimal Diplomatic presence in the world, is reduced to a laughing stock; its medical care for ordinary citizens much reduced, environment and workers rights again much diminished, trade and trust all much eroded and no-one will ever confer or ask trump of his opinion on anything.

trump will be removed as if a malignant stump; a conman, a paste board sham.

 

 

 

 

I am baffled …

I had held YaleClimateConnections as worthwhile and a valid source for climate change info, not that I’m much of an avid watcher of these things, I’ve a life to lead and have gleaned full well where we are heading. When will the penny drop that ppl have not the time for presentations of say fifteen minutes, youtube has many other items that need to be scanned as quickly as possible, an attached precis in document form would be mighty handy.  But this mornings visit has me baffled. For instance at 02:40 we are told “by 2100” (a misnomer in itself) that I quote loosely …  “Permafrost carbon feedback by 2100 ‘is’ smaller, much smaller than human fossil fuel emissions” … EH ! ? “Its about ten percent of that” …. CRIKEY. Sorry, invert your arguament then factor in a move of the decimal point.

I find this misinformation and crap hard to stomach. Methinks there is skewed thinking, Orwellian newspeak in action; its called trump, the EPA putting the screws on. Maybe shrouded as a general balm to quell any mass hysteria? IPCC is not much better, its most recent foray into ‘forecasting’ I think I’m right in saying deliberately did not include material contributed by Prof Peter Wadhams the worlds expert on Arctic ice and forgot to factor in Arctic methane !!!

Earlier the first nugget of wisdom in this pointless misinformation from Yale is of the plant life re-colonising and will transform some areas of thawing permafrost / methane release to a nett uptake ie 00:50 and onto 01:00 ! Blimey … now that is real optimism gone crazy. Sorry but even a child would say a thin layer of green encroachment is far outnumbered by the dirty soup of thawing permafrost that in itself provides physical depth and bulk, coupled with and absence of oxygen to generate the dreaded methane that is 80-120 times he potency of the already dreaded CO2. Short term potency is all we need consider, human life will not be here to see it extend to the medium term. Remember too that with increasing CO2 and methane green growing things actually back down and go into reverse in their much needed conversion. Already diatom / algal populations and conversion are going into reverse, also diatom / bryozoan symbiosis on coral reef needs explaining clearly, not just the glib ‘bleaching’. Yesterday even, reading of the tiny numbers of remaining Right Whale and the loss of their principal food no mention is made that it is the loss of lower food chain, again diatoms/ algae that will probably be at the root of this problem.

Maybe I should have been a scientist, I hope I could get at the truth better than this.

 

Theres nothing in this presentation / vid that i can let go unchallenged, its back to back misinformation and nonsense, its endless and what is most alarming is that its issued June 2019!

“The abrupt thaw could represent about a half of the total permafrost climate feedback” at 02:50 …  in my opinion try 1,000 % plus.

“If we can slow down human carbon emissions” … no its all set in motion, nice optimism, but interconnected feedback loops and the workings of nature are so very stacked against us ie 03:25

“Hit our economy” …. yes indeed!

This is like something made by twelve year olds.

 

 

postscript … note the term ‘restricted grammar and limited vocabulary’ … reminds one of the Idiot in Chief presently occupying (sometimes) the Oval Office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspeak

One could say quite fairly that in this fag paper thin layer that we inhabit viewing the world as a childs football (ie 0.001in on an eight inch sphere) … drilling and capturing mostly the oil and gas from ancient diatoms that has upset the equilibrium which first allowed humankind to thrive and therefore latterly upset the amazing and horrifying multiplicity of feedback loops have now been forced to realign to the newly introduced contaminants and effluent that now trigger the chemical formula and physical  laws that are quite unstoppable.

trumps refusal and crowbar silencing (as with YaleClimateConnections above) are far worse than any war crime and he should be tried as such. Whilst we’ve got people in the dock maybe Carl Benz, Rudolf Diesel and Henry Ford are to be answerable. Strange but true.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

arctic methane.

Arctic methane is the biggie, on a ten year timescale x120 more potent then CO2 … this we know already from many sources online, I mean blogs and material from sensible people not alarmist junk of which the latter I tend to avoid.

Explaining to a new friend yesterday its not just the two and three deg C rise by at my guess 2026 (I’ve a £1k wager on this for 3C+ by end 2026) that will in itself hurt us ie its just a hotter day to endure … BUT its the effect on world interconnected natural systems with locked in feedbacks and associated drives that respond at such fine-scale limits that will alter this biosphere to become un-livable, this literally one thou inch thick biosphere on an eight inch diameter childs football.  This is thinner than any layer of modern varnish, more like the old fashioned shellac.  Already the jet stream has split into two loops and is streaming hot moist air over the Arctic. My guess is that the end of the greenland ice sheet I quote “By 2100” as bandied in the general press is woefully overestimated; the nature of ice melt is a law unto itself.

Note that of recent years no-one is bandying the expression that ‘nature is resilient’ anymore …

8 inch dia = 8k miles dia of planet Earth

therefore .001 in (one thou inch) = 1 mile approx.

cigarette paper = 0.001 in (copier paper is 0.004 in)

And still diesel drivers idle their engines all day, at work, at supermarkets whilst waiting, during lunchbreaks etc etc.

So much if not all of our CO2 to O conversion shuts down at increased CO2 levels, it does not / can not ‘rise to the occasion’, ie green plants and forests, diatoms, algae.  Likewise my particular ‘hobby horse’ and fascination with diatoms is a critical factor, the irony of using ancient deposits of oil and gas mainly derived from diatoms has led to their own and our demise, see also the loss of the symbiotic relationship of diatoms to bryozoans ie coral reef.  No-one has ever seen with the naked eye a diatom yet nearly all of our petrol and oil carbon lifestyle is based upon them.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251

 

 

 

 

Arctic thawing and landslides…

I assume this exposes hidden methane hydrates to thaw even quicker, accelerate microbial activity, allow subterranean gases to emerge and may well divert established waterflow toward raw earth. A couple of times in my life I’ve been close to landslip material and its a substance unrealised until one has seen and handled it.

An aside, my own husbandry of a watercourse to help reduce erosion … a place I know has had needlessly a mile of ditches re-dug which were very old and functioned fine already, the field border and ditches date from 1680 are moss lined, bound with perennial herbs and a highly efficient web of roots both fibrous and woody to bind it all together.  Lots of runs, holes and trackways from I guess vole activity. Now all this has been scraped away and dumped onto the other side of the road, exposed raw earth will most certainly be eroded and washed down as is already evident a few weeks following the needless so-called ‘improvement’ …  the complete mile is on a hill and runs down in basically a straight line downwards.  This is new work is a recipe for disaster. Again, I know that hill and for the last few winters merely as an anonymous citizen have known which drainage conduit to unblock with my six foot pry-bar to get things functioning (mostly from fly-tipped builders and garden waste) yet also each year for days previous to my visit all the locals, farmers, gamekeepers, middle class out of town country dwellers have sailed past in their cars and done nothing as the torrent carves out and undercuts the edge of the road.  So, as yet again the man in the digger has no intimate knowledge of what he is doing, no perceptible aptitude and merely wrecks what already functions perfectly well. A case in point being run off channels where I don’t think run-off will occur in many cases.  I guarantee as is already being demonstrated that once the heavy rain run-off flushes downwards the silt build up will in fact create flooding, blockage, overspill further down where none need have occurred. I often think man as a labouring animal, as trying to engage with intelligent / common sense husbandry is increasingly becoming useless at this small intimate scale. Further down, each year I also quite easily can divert side of road run-off back into the drainage channel merely banking a few inches of earth and voila! … job done. The digger driver has completely ignored these points / locations. My charming aside re basic hydrology now finished, back to the dreaded thawing permafrost.

http://theconversation.com/thawing-permafrost-is-triggering-thousands-of-landslides-across-the-arctic-114702

Greenland ice melt …

Possibly I’ve overlooked this link, its inevitable climate change fatigue kicks in and we must remember to live our lives and not be over-consumed with the web keyboards and screens, incredible thieves of time.  I also wonder at how google manipulates and quite how and why we are steered to particular content, but never mind that for now.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/21/health/greenland-ice-melt-study-intl/index.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/06/world/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-unprecedented-rate-climate-change-wxc/index.html

I think we all know as children that ice disappears far quicker than we can realise, next morning waking up and Bingo its all gone. Its laughable when we read of headlines or targets utilising  ‘two degrees by the end of the century’  … lets say its more likely four degrees (or more) by 2025 ie six years from now …  in my opinion I cannot see how this can be avoided.

Greenland we read will add 23 feet to global water levels, that is one heck of a lot of cities rendered inoperable, likewise nuclear power plants. With it come tsunamis, el Nino due to increased freshwater and associated rainfall and associated high winds. Its a horrible set of interconnected feedback loops, we read that such increased pressure on tectonic plates will cause plate movements. Right now the circulations of water and air is drawing cold out of the Arctic and pumping warmth into it. This looks bad for  the remaining ice sheet (albedo / reflecting the suns rays)  for thawing methane hydrate etc etc. Remember my illustration of the usable space we have on this planet, it corresponds to a one thou thick (0.001 in) cigarette paper licked onto a childs eight inch football. This illustration of mine also displays how our usable planetary space is so vulnerable to a changed set of circumstances or influencing factors.

I think at the moment with accelerated changes information is a little slow to seep through, theres a time-lag, scientists have always a need to be certain of their observations. Therefore what is actually happening ie jet stream, methane hydrates, ice melt is probably worse than we realise, or putting it less alarmist the data is moving too fast ahead of us.

Its baffling how in all this we still have the ‘counter-information movement’ that on google page one is adamant to correct any thoughts of climate change and that good ‘ol fossil fuels are our friends!  I praise Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in having the guts to get the message out that every single person is responsible for their carbon footprint, the energy and resources in day to day life ie to drastically reduce air travel, the need to minimise beef consumption.  Even here at my own place the washing machine broke a month ago and I’m quite capable of washing by hand. I am lucky, theres next to no dirt or grime on my clothes so therefore an hours soak in washing powder gets ’em as clean as any machine wash. So far i quite like this non-electric approach but of course deep winter will make it a quite onerous task and I do not have a houseful of kids and a husband to keep well presented.

James Lovelock in the text for his book  ‘Gaia’ long before it became common knowledge among ordinary people stresses the interconnectedness of natures many feedback loops, how earth is one heck of a developed and refined self regulating machine. Very much an independant Scientist and all the better for it.

In the link below the academic writing as Sam Carana is ahead of most of us (at least as to what we admit publicly) in his thinking. The apparent slowness, obfuscation and plain simple ignorance of trump and his backers and suchlike journalists and so-called news sites is staggeringly stupid, near beyond belief if other than it is real and happening.  http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html

At random google p.1 …

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-is-coming-for-your-hamburgers

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/07/green-new-deal-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-plan

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/14/politics/green-new-deal-proposal-breakdown/index.html

postscript …. 7th March 2019 bbc r4 news at 6pm we get a tailend at near the end of the prog re Greenland ice melt and how nowadays there is far more rain (pouring onto the ice massif). Uh-oh, i reckon my 4 deg C  by 2025 could well occur…. i would hardly think there could be much of the Greenland ice sheet remaining?

A strange thing to talk about ….

On bbc r4 this week we had ‘Inside Science’ devote a segment to the prospect of the increasing methane levels in the next few years, Professor Euan Nisbet from Royal Holloway University of London emphasising tropical wetland methane but if my ears are working  correctly never once mentioned Arctic methane.

I am assuming tropical methane is a more steady state influence yet the Arctic variety in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates is on an astoundingly high trajectory of growth ie explosions of methane off the chart so to speak.

bbc radio is often a bit wonky and yet another example and shame upon the presentation of the subject.

I’ve blogged on Arctic methane previously, plenty of tags.

One cannot help but feel we are plunged into darkness whilst having just entered a strange new room, our steps are tiny, we will tentatively, timidly grasp at anything.

 

I find it profoundly irritating (and I refuse to take part) that we have to ‘log in’ to use the listen again facilityfor bbc radio, this is new and a bloody nuisance …

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0002r6y

https://www.royalholloway.ac.uk/about-us/news/royal-holloway-researchers-lead-project-to-remove-greenhouses-gases-from-the-atmosphere/