I read Sam Carana and anything from Guy McPherson; he has a critical enquiring mind, one of the youngest Professors ever appointed in the USA.
The slowness, blindness and inaccuracy of the IPCC is astounding. I think I’m correct in saying didn’t include subsea methane release in their most recent ‘modelling’ (highly inaccurate anyway) and ignored melting Arctic ice. Lewis Carrol could have written the script. Levels that are in the short term are the levels that will destroy us, say x130 for methane; theres no medium or long term worth considering, we’ll not be here.
Anyways, 2C will come and go v quickly, better start thinking 3C plus, which of course means human life is teetering and gone. Think about it, feedback loops of enormous world encompassing comprehensivity, nature in the raw so to speak, grain production areas disabled, theres nowhere else it can be done, corporations had better get ‘superfood’ substitutes developed v quickly. Thank God I don’t live in a large centre of population, water distribution / delivery / pumping and sewage disposal will become so critical. And so on and so on …
So many pundits / governments / media voices seem to wish to project a false prediction that somehow or other 2 degrees C of warming will leave us all at a levelling off, when in fact the whole system of nature is now a frightening series of triggers and feedback loops revving up to go faster.
- ice loss
- jet stream
- weather patterns
- sea level rise
- green growing things ‘go in reverse’ for CO2 conversion
- algae / diatom crash the oceans die (witness diatom / bryozoan symbiosis ie coral reef.
- grain production
- insects (pollinators) gone
- aluminium levels
- drinking water
- power stations are nearly all coastal
The term permafrost always stuck in my mind from my UK secondary school teacher Mr Lowes, as if he knew its importance, he probably did. This practical hands-on in your face geography, knowledge and recognition of landscape is a trillion miles in every respect from climate deniers and principally trump and his dastardly callous refusal to ‘get real’ to acknowledge and act accordingly. Its as if ‘act accordingly’ is something singularly missing in the trump gene pool. To ban the use of ‘climate change’ from USA science is a crime, a war crime. Likewise all his hangers-on and sycophants are aiding and abetting his crooked regime, they help no-one whatsoever, blood ties for so many at the top or feeding influence and outlook to an already skewed mentality is a recipe for disaster. As with journeying to the North and knowing of thawing permafrost, the only trips trump takes in his excruciatingly expensive motorcade are the many times built landscape, prestige thoroughfares. Ironic, a reality star (…only in his own mind) yet as far from reality as any hood or crook or bent lawyer that ever existed in the green pastures and open vistas of New York.
Never mind, all things trump WILL come to an end. Yet in the meantime the USA has minimal Diplomatic presence in the world, is reduced to a laughing stock; its medical care for ordinary citizens much reduced, environment and workers rights again much diminished, trade and trust all much eroded and no-one will ever confer or ask trump of his opinion on anything.
trump will be removed as if a malignant stump; a conman, a paste board sham.
Arctic methane is the biggie, on a ten year timescale x120 more potent then CO2 … this we know already from many sources online, I mean blogs and material from sensible people not alarmist junk of which the latter I tend to avoid.
Explaining to a new friend yesterday its not just the two and three deg C rise by at my guess 2026 (I’ve a £1k wager on this for 3C+ by end 2026) that will in itself hurt us ie its just a hotter day to endure … BUT its the effect on world interconnected natural systems with locked in feedbacks and associated drives that respond at such fine-scale limits that will alter this biosphere to become un-livable, this literally one thou inch thick biosphere on an eight inch diameter childs football. This is thinner than any layer of modern varnish, more like the old fashioned shellac. Already the jet stream has split into two loops and is streaming hot moist air over the Arctic. My guess is that the end of the greenland ice sheet I quote “By 2100” as bandied in the general press is woefully overestimated; the nature of ice melt is a law unto itself.
Note that of recent years no-one is bandying the expression that ‘nature is resilient’ anymore …
8 inch dia = 8k miles dia of planet Earth
therefore .001 in (one thou inch) = 1 mile approx.
cigarette paper = 0.001 in (copier paper is 0.004 in)
And still diesel drivers idle their engines all day, at work, at supermarkets whilst waiting, during lunchbreaks etc etc.
So much if not all of our CO2 to O conversion shuts down at increased CO2 levels, it does not / can not ‘rise to the occasion’, ie green plants and forests, diatoms, algae. Likewise my particular ‘hobby horse’ and fascination with diatoms is a critical factor, the irony of using ancient deposits of oil and gas mainly derived from diatoms has led to their own and our demise, see also the loss of the symbiotic relationship of diatoms to bryozoans ie coral reef. No-one has ever seen with the naked eye a diatom yet nearly all of our petrol and oil carbon lifestyle is based upon them.
I assume this exposes hidden methane hydrates to thaw even quicker, accelerate microbial activity, allow subterranean gases to emerge and may well divert established waterflow toward raw earth. A couple of times in my life I’ve been close to landslip material and its a substance unrealised until one has seen and handled it.
An aside, my own husbandry of a watercourse to help reduce erosion … a place I know has had needlessly a mile of ditches re-dug which were very old and functioned fine already, the field border and ditches date from 1680 are moss lined, bound with perennial herbs and a highly efficient web of roots both fibrous and woody to bind it all together. Lots of runs, holes and trackways from I guess vole activity. Now all this has been scraped away and dumped onto the other side of the road, exposed raw earth will most certainly be eroded and washed down as is already evident a few weeks following the needless so-called ‘improvement’ … the complete mile is on a hill and runs down in basically a straight line downwards. This is new work is a recipe for disaster. Again, I know that hill and for the last few winters merely as an anonymous citizen have known which drainage conduit to unblock with my six foot pry-bar to get things functioning (mostly from fly-tipped builders and garden waste) yet also each year for days previous to my visit all the locals, farmers, gamekeepers, middle class out of town country dwellers have sailed past in their cars and done nothing as the torrent carves out and undercuts the edge of the road. So, as yet again the man in the digger has no intimate knowledge of what he is doing, no perceptible aptitude and merely wrecks what already functions perfectly well. A case in point being run off channels where I don’t think run-off will occur in many cases. I guarantee as is already being demonstrated that once the heavy rain run-off flushes downwards the silt build up will in fact create flooding, blockage, overspill further down where none need have occurred. I often think man as a labouring animal, as trying to engage with intelligent / common sense husbandry is increasingly becoming useless at this small intimate scale. Further down, each year I also quite easily can divert side of road run-off back into the drainage channel merely banking a few inches of earth and voila! … job done. The digger driver has completely ignored these points / locations. My charming aside re basic hydrology now finished, back to the dreaded thawing permafrost.
This link is usually my first port of call for Arctic warming, a highly qualified professional well worth reading. He knows all the active professionals / scientists and is certainly their equal, this is acknowledged. He says what he thinks, he no longer has any academic position / daytime job to fear losing.
Yikes, ultra creepy temp increase … anything that says by 2100 Greenland Ice Massif will be gone … more like 2026 I’d say. This end of 2026 point in time is when i would think we are somewhere at a minimum of 3 to 4C global warming, you can wave goodbye to anything like a piddling 2C prediction … quite laughable sticking to 2C considering the interconnectedness of natures climate systems and feedback loops. If I’m not correct then I will donate £1k GBP to charities, no quibble. Remember, the accelerating nature of ice melt is working against us, any child knows wake up next morning and it can often be an exasperating sight to see all the ice and snow mostly gone overnight as often happens here in northern England. Realise too that with increased ice-melt the freshwater adds to increasing humidity and rainfall. Therefore no albedo effect ie the reflective nature of a white landscape is lost and ad infinitum heat absorbancy spirals way beyond most publicly available predictions. Permafrost becomes mush, methane tumbles upwards from microbial, geological and thawing hydrate; better sort some space for all the oxygen cylinders we will need.
And then what ?
Heres a pic of what its like up there in NWT … https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/mackenzie-valley-winter-road-closed-1.5064202
Postscript; thinking of ice loss, not even the term logarithmic in relationship to volume decay is applicable when the temperature is rapidly increasing as in the North West Territories cited above, any ‘steady state’ conformity to plotting arithmetic curves or laws of decay goes out the window or into the newly formed lake. Again, thinking of childhood observation of a quick thaw here in temperate England, all the melt seemed to merely sink into the earth itself which in a permafrost situation up north is the last thing we need. So therefore in my mind most ‘predictions’ are invalid, unreal because thawing ice behaves in its own unique way. Its back to what I fear by 2026.
At least i’m doing ‘something’ even if its quite by chance or the new circumstances of my wife passing away three years ago which has enabled me to do things differently, ie much reduced mileage in the car as I’m happier being nearer to home (I’m the ideal profile for an electric vehicle) … washing machine bust and won’t be replaced, plastic bucket and a clothes line do all i want as theres no real dirt or grime to remove. Keeping the computer switched off most hours also helps in several ways, use books more, increase pleasure in sketching, copying, taking notes, memorise things … we don’t always need to be up on the latest news online, theres much human knowledge that is as good now as it was forty or a hundred years ago. I’ve no tv through choice and this suits me, bbc r3 and 4 provide sufficient, no mobile either and I’ve uninstalled the wireless remote heating thermostat. The only modern luxury I wish to retain is my central heating system and the pleasure of a hot bath !
Spinning and tumbling clothes dry here in England can be severely cut back and perhaps eliminated in many households, the washing line does all these things; particularly as these last few years we seldom have the rainfall here in NE England that we used to have.