Thom tells it like it is !

Useful ten minutes from Thom Hartmann, shorter vids are better vids, thanks Thom.

Heres the comment i made, makes sense ….

to quote myself ….

I’ve a benchmark pinned to my kitchen wall, it will be somewhere between three to four degrees C by end of 2026, if i’m wrong and it doesn’t reach that temperature then I’ll donate £1k GBP to the poor and needy (but i cannot see how it can be avoided by say 2030). From what I’ve read the interconnectedness of feedback loops is quite staggering and how very insightful independant scientist James Lovelock was in his book ‘Gaia’ to open this to the layman. I fear Greenland is going to de-ice a lot quicker than the ‘2100’ figure that is bandied about. Air travel, beef consumption and the need for multi-car households are all going to have to be crow-barred from the hands of the affluent west. I fear many will want to continue ‘as is’ until they are gasping for breath, in a confused state and eating basic rations merely to survive. And the rich? ….. maybe its time the rich were taxed a little more significantly. It annoys me at present at the silence from better reporting of the Pacific seabird die-off three and four years ago and near universal omission to mention the role diatoms play both as the base of the marine food chain, symbiosis with the now departed bryozoans and producing DMS and conversion of CO2 to O. As you rightly say IPCC is a most emasculated and lamentable in some respects charade, i realise its better than nothing but do we continually have to be making excuses? They didn’t even include Prof Peter Wadhams re Arctic ice !! The worlds expert.

unquote.

And i forgot to say the IPCC do not even factor in the impending release of methane in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates.

 

Greenland ice melt …

Possibly I’ve overlooked this link, its inevitable climate change fatigue kicks in and we must remember to live our lives and not be over-consumed with the web keyboards and screens, incredible thieves of time.  I also wonder at how google manipulates and quite how and why we are steered to particular content, but never mind that for now.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/21/health/greenland-ice-melt-study-intl/index.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/06/world/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-unprecedented-rate-climate-change-wxc/index.html

I think we all know as children that ice disappears far quicker than we can realise, next morning waking up and Bingo its all gone. Its laughable when we read of headlines or targets utilising  ‘two degrees by the end of the century’  … lets say its more likely four degrees (or more) by 2025 ie six years from now …  in my opinion I cannot see how this can be avoided.

Greenland we read will add 23 feet to global water levels, that is one heck of a lot of cities rendered inoperable, likewise nuclear power plants. With it come tsunamis, el Nino due to increased freshwater and associated rainfall and associated high winds. Its a horrible set of interconnected feedback loops, we read that such increased pressure on tectonic plates will cause plate movements. Right now the circulations of water and air is drawing cold out of the Arctic and pumping warmth into it. This looks bad for  the remaining ice sheet (albedo / reflecting the suns rays)  for thawing methane hydrate etc etc. Remember my illustration of the usable space we have on this planet, it corresponds to a one thou thick (0.001 in) cigarette paper licked onto a childs eight inch football. This illustration of mine also displays how our usable planetary space is so vulnerable to a changed set of circumstances or influencing factors.

I think at the moment with accelerated changes information is a little slow to seep through, theres a time-lag, scientists have always a need to be certain of their observations. Therefore what is actually happening ie jet stream, methane hydrates, ice melt is probably worse than we realise, or putting it less alarmist the data is moving too fast ahead of us.

Its baffling how in all this we still have the ‘counter-information movement’ that on google page one is adamant to correct any thoughts of climate change and that good ‘ol fossil fuels are our friends!  I praise Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in having the guts to get the message out that every single person is responsible for their carbon footprint, the energy and resources in day to day life ie to drastically reduce air travel, the need to minimise beef consumption.  Even here at my own place the washing machine broke a month ago and I’m quite capable of washing by hand. I am lucky, theres next to no dirt or grime on my clothes so therefore an hours soak in washing powder gets ’em as clean as any machine wash. So far i quite like this non-electric approach but of course deep winter will make it a quite onerous task and I do not have a houseful of kids and a husband to keep well presented.

James Lovelock in the text for his book  ‘Gaia’ long before it became common knowledge among ordinary people stresses the interconnectedness of natures many feedback loops, how earth is one heck of a developed and refined self regulating machine. Very much an independant Scientist and all the better for it.

In the link below the academic writing as Sam Carana is ahead of most of us (at least as to what we admit publicly) in his thinking. The apparent slowness, obfuscation and plain simple ignorance of trump and his backers and suchlike journalists and so-called news sites is staggeringly stupid, near beyond belief if other than it is real and happening.  http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html

At random google p.1 …

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-is-coming-for-your-hamburgers

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/07/green-new-deal-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-plan

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/14/politics/green-new-deal-proposal-breakdown/index.html

postscript …. 7th March 2019 bbc r4 news at 6pm we get a tailend at near the end of the prog re Greenland ice melt and how nowadays there is far more rain (pouring onto the ice massif). Uh-oh, i reckon my 4 deg C  by 2025 could well occur…. i would hardly think there could be much of the Greenland ice sheet remaining?

Climate change discussion.

Just found this … https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

… its in nature.com so it has validity.

With the temp rise, the loss of diatoms and the loss of coral (erroneously in my opinion termed ‘bleaching) the bryozoans fail, die because the microscopic partners have gone. Therefore to paraphrase trump … “Who would have known invisible things could be so complicated” … yup!

I got the link above from arctic-news … makes for the grimmest reading, but I’m glad its there. As I’ve learnt and repeated for the life of this blog the past year it is the sledge hammer threat from the thawing subsea methane that will stop the pendulum of life. Its a fact, its elementary observation and realisation, things as yet hardly seen that we cannot get politicians or the IPCC to take heed; the latter as generally acknowledged by climate-savvy scientists to be a report twenty years behind; witness the fact that the IPCC does not even recognise or factor in the importance of arctic methane release which in fact will be the death of us all.

Yet can we get ‘the man in the street’ to ponder on these things, to think a little bit more ???

Go back to my post half a year ago ‘making a model of planet Earth’ we are in fact a habitable zone of a wet cigarette paper placed on a childs 8inch football. Thats all we have and so hence our habitable layer is ultra sensitive to change, is staggeringly interconnected in all climate systems, jet stream, oceanic waterflow, gulf stream, accelerated melting of Greenland ad infinitum …  never mind the fun down in the Antarctic.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/01/global-extinction-within-18-34-months.html

Please note I always have my radar turned on for either plain simple crackpot sites or sites designed to mislead or render a subject as ‘nuts’ ie misinformation. Beware that general media can be ‘loaded’ in this respect. My own beef being bbc radio news r4 being so un-crtical of trump and their choice of words actually sounding to support him or serve him up in the best light. That is what I think is the value of my blog, quality material.

postscript …. we may as well have the video from the latest arctic-news, it makes a valuable contribution.

 

Its just hit me, this year I cannot recall seeing the little hoverflies that used to be so prevalant at my local nature reserve the ‘pit heap’.

In five years time will I be able to see any honeybees, any pied flycatchers here in the UK ?? … I think the answer will be negative.

IPCC underestimations …. COP 24

Are massive and most likely catastrophically so. The battle is with nature and the natural world of feedback systems. All were in place, fully functioning and in equilibrium  well before we walked upright.

To paraphrase the twit in the White House …. “Who would have thought Climate Change could be so complicated” … Yes and so powerful and so all enveloping. Its ‘everything’ and its as if the roulette wheel decides our fate on one cruel spin.

Carbon capture must happen, yet so far its exploratory and small scale. And may I interject that for each oversize SUV or needless pick-up there will be a swathe of carbon capture apparatus to offset the crap!

The IPCC for instance does not even factor in loss of Arctic ice; its computer modelling is twenty years behind the times and not one recognised Ice Scientist was on the panel. Its as if we are suffering from collective stupidity, the Brits cannot handle the Brexit problem, the Americans are saddled with an idiot in the White House.

Heres some exclamation marks !!!!!! and a few more !!!!!

Below is a vid tieing in Prof Peter Wadhams (Arctic Expert) and a presentation in immediate response to IPCC outdatedness / time lag / ineptitude.

Salient points ….

  • IPCC much over complacent.
  • Controversial area of geo-engineering not explored.
  • IPCC contains / embraces discredited modelling ie ice won’t disappear till end of century.
  • IPCC ignores albedo effect ie reflectivity of the suns warming rays instead of worst case being absorbed (think Arctic methane) .
  • IPCC ignores increased melting of Greenland.
  • IPCC not factoring in loss of ice caps.
  • Govts can quote any target for the future, yet we all know theres always a shortfall that is excused away sometime hence…

To contradict the IPCC, reaforestation is in a practical world not feasible; timescale too! But it always makes nice tv to see junior school bods piddling about with seedlings… Germany for instance is stripping forests to get at open cast mining of lignite  … dirty dirty dirty.

Also the bitchiness, obfuscation and sheer downright twattery of Science reared its head when Dr Wadhams chapter on arctic methane was omitted from a written book / presentation for a Conference in China (without informing Prof Wadhams)  because we are told the Harvard Prof in charge did not believe Arctic methane was a possibility !!!  Remember that methane will arrive from three sources, geological, microbial and the release from thawing frozen hydrates; all from vast areas previously frozen we never visit nor can visualise in their seemingly endless expanse, ie East Siberian ice shelf which exists in huge swathes of shallow sea.

Interestingly Stuarts presentation included ‘Villian of the Day’ naming Theresa May in which she has sanctioned fracking and fossil fuel infrastructure; I don’t know details.

 

 

Also, a brief list ….

https://www.scientistswarning.org/

https://paulbeckwith.net/https://paulbeckwith.net/

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/

 

 

 

Watch the ice …

Succinct and direct vid and also illustrates the flow outwards of ice into the North Atlantic. I wld have liked more written text but I assume format precludes, its an intentional brief hit of info.

Note also that its thickness that matters, from above we can still see some of the whiter older ice but at what thickness? Likewise Grenland, likewise everywhere. Here 7th Dec NE England its far too warm this morning, car thermometer tells me 10deg C.

https://nowthisnews.com/videos/future/nasa-animation-shows-arctic-ice-rapidly-depleting

climate change links …

My hope is that anyone stumbling upon this blog of mine will realise its my intention readers click back to older posts to find an unfolding list of useful material and associated serious and valuable websites, I generally only post repeated sources such as news sites hoping otherwise ppl will realise to ‘drill down’ to get the good stuff.

So here I am contradicting myself and posting material that I cannot allow to drift away unread …

https://e360.yale.edu/features/escalator-to-extinction-can-mountain-species-adapt-to-climate-change

Heres an overview of their latest material … https://e360.yale.edu/digest

Thats lots to be reading and a little of something else just found re Arctic warming  …  https://wordpress.com/read/feeds/12481054/posts/2079388346     …. theres some good embeds from Prof Peter Wadhams, I have his book here ‘A Farewell to Ice’.

It is sad beyond words that most of us in the West are now able to lead a pleasant moderately civilised and comfortable life and to see it all taken away by Natures intolerance of human activity. Perhaps that displays how I regard my position in the social or class structure of this country, that I assume automatically that my forbears led lives of hard work, long hours and the niggling fear of what might be around the corner, what might happen next. But maybe I am running to false conclusions, perhaps they were able to gain some happiness or satisfaction contrary to their aching limbs, subservience to an employer and multiple deaths at every stage of life from childbirth onwards?  My arguament would be that it is only in the last few decades where emancipation, workers rights, better housing, personal mobility, education and better conditions at work and access to healthcare have appeared on the scene. Yes, it is only recently we are better off speaking as a working class person.