Arctic thawing and landslides…

I assume this exposes hidden methane hydrates to thaw even quicker, accelerate microbial activity, allow subterranean gases to emerge and may well divert established waterflow toward raw earth. A couple of times in my life I’ve been close to landslip material and its a substance unrealised until one has seen and handled it.

An aside, my own husbandry of a watercourse to help reduce erosion … a place I know has had needlessly a mile of ditches re-dug which were very old and functioned fine already, the field border and ditches date from 1680 are moss lined, bound with perennial herbs and a highly efficient web of roots both fibrous and woody to bind it all together.  Lots of runs, holes and trackways from I guess vole activity. Now all this has been scraped away and dumped onto the other side of the road, exposed raw earth will most certainly be eroded and washed down as is already evident a few weeks following the needless so-called ‘improvement’ …  the complete mile is on a hill and runs down in basically a straight line downwards.  This is new work is a recipe for disaster. Again, I know that hill and for the last few winters merely as an anonymous citizen have known which drainage conduit to unblock with my six foot pry-bar to get things functioning (mostly from fly-tipped builders and garden waste) yet also each year for days previous to my visit all the locals, farmers, gamekeepers, middle class out of town country dwellers have sailed past in their cars and done nothing as the torrent carves out and undercuts the edge of the road.  So, as yet again the man in the digger has no intimate knowledge of what he is doing, no perceptible aptitude and merely wrecks what already functions perfectly well. A case in point being run off channels where I don’t think run-off will occur in many cases.  I guarantee as is already being demonstrated that once the heavy rain run-off flushes downwards the silt build up will in fact create flooding, blockage, overspill further down where none need have occurred. I often think man as a labouring animal, as trying to engage with intelligent / common sense husbandry is increasingly becoming useless at this small intimate scale. Further down, each year I also quite easily can divert side of road run-off back into the drainage channel merely banking a few inches of earth and voila! … job done. The digger driver has completely ignored these points / locations. My charming aside re basic hydrology now finished, back to the dreaded thawing permafrost.

http://theconversation.com/thawing-permafrost-is-triggering-thousands-of-landslides-across-the-arctic-114702

Global warming …

This link is usually my first port of call for Arctic warming,  a highly qualified professional well worth reading. He knows all the active professionals / scientists and is certainly their equal, this is acknowledged. He says what he thinks, he no longer has any academic position / daytime job to fear losing.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/an-infinite-scream-passing-through-nature.html

Northern Canada: +22C when it should be zero.

Yikes, ultra creepy temp increase  … anything that says by 2100 Greenland Ice Massif will be gone … more like 2026 I’d say. This end of 2026 point in time is when i would think we are somewhere at a minimum of  3 to 4C global warming, you can wave goodbye to anything like a piddling 2C prediction … quite laughable sticking to 2C considering the interconnectedness of natures climate systems and feedback loops. If I’m not correct then I will donate £1k GBP to charities, no quibble.  Remember, the accelerating nature of ice melt is working against us, any child knows wake up next morning and it can often be an exasperating sight to see all the ice and snow mostly gone overnight as often happens here in northern England. Realise too that with increased ice-melt the freshwater adds to increasing humidity and rainfall. Therefore no albedo effect ie the reflective nature of a white landscape is lost and ad infinitum heat absorbancy spirals way beyond most publicly available predictions. Permafrost becomes mush, methane tumbles upwards from microbial, geological and thawing hydrate; better sort some space for all the oxygen cylinders we will need.

And then what ?

 

Heres a pic of what its like up there in NWT … https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/mackenzie-valley-winter-road-closed-1.5064202

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/truck-plunges-deline-ice-road-1.3477869

 

Postscript; thinking of ice loss, not even the term logarithmic in relationship to volume decay is applicable when the temperature is rapidly increasing as in the North West Territories cited above, any ‘steady state’ conformity to plotting arithmetic curves or laws of decay goes out the window or into the newly formed lake. Again, thinking of childhood observation of a quick thaw here in temperate England, all the melt seemed to merely sink into the earth itself which in a permafrost situation up north is the last thing we need. So therefore in my mind most ‘predictions’ are invalid, unreal because thawing ice behaves in its own unique way. Its back to what I fear by 2026.

At least i’m doing ‘something’ even if its quite by chance or the new circumstances of my wife passing away three years ago which has enabled me to do things differently, ie much reduced mileage in the car as I’m happier being nearer to home (I’m the ideal profile for an electric vehicle) …  washing machine bust and won’t be replaced, plastic bucket and a clothes line do all i want as theres no real dirt or grime to remove. Keeping the computer switched off most hours also helps in several ways, use books more, increase pleasure in sketching, copying, taking notes, memorise things … we don’t always need to be up on the latest news online, theres much human knowledge that is as good now as it was forty or a hundred years ago. I’ve no tv through choice and this suits me, bbc r3 and 4 provide sufficient, no mobile either and I’ve uninstalled the wireless remote heating thermostat. The only modern luxury I wish to retain is my central heating system and the pleasure of a hot bath !

Spinning and tumbling clothes dry here in England can be severely cut back and perhaps eliminated in many households, the washing line does all these things; particularly as these last few years we seldom have the rainfall here in NE England that we used to have.

Thom tells it like it is !

Useful ten minutes from Thom Hartmann, shorter vids are better vids, thanks Thom.

Heres the comment i made, makes sense ….

to quote myself ….

I’ve a benchmark pinned to my kitchen wall, it will be somewhere between three to four degrees C by end of 2026, if i’m wrong and it doesn’t reach that temperature then I’ll donate £1k GBP to the poor and needy (but i cannot see how it can be avoided by say 2030). From what I’ve read the interconnectedness of feedback loops is quite staggering and how very insightful independant scientist James Lovelock was in his book ‘Gaia’ to open this to the layman. I fear Greenland is going to de-ice a lot quicker than the ‘2100’ figure that is bandied about. Air travel, beef consumption and the need for multi-car households are all going to have to be crow-barred from the hands of the affluent west. I fear many will want to continue ‘as is’ until they are gasping for breath, in a confused state and eating basic rations merely to survive. And the rich? ….. maybe its time the rich were taxed a little more significantly. It annoys me at present at the silence from better reporting of the Pacific seabird die-off three and four years ago and near universal omission to mention the role diatoms play both as the base of the marine food chain, symbiosis with the now departed bryozoans and producing DMS and conversion of CO2 to O. As you rightly say IPCC is a most emasculated and lamentable in some respects charade, i realise its better than nothing but do we continually have to be making excuses? They didn’t even include Prof Peter Wadhams re Arctic ice !! The worlds expert.

unquote.

And i forgot to say the IPCC do not even factor in the impending release of methane in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates.

 

Greenland ice melt …

Possibly I’ve overlooked this link, its inevitable climate change fatigue kicks in and we must remember to live our lives and not be over-consumed with the web keyboards and screens, incredible thieves of time.  I also wonder at how google manipulates and quite how and why we are steered to particular content, but never mind that for now.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/21/health/greenland-ice-melt-study-intl/index.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/06/world/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-unprecedented-rate-climate-change-wxc/index.html

I think we all know as children that ice disappears far quicker than we can realise, next morning waking up and Bingo its all gone. Its laughable when we read of headlines or targets utilising  ‘two degrees by the end of the century’  … lets say its more likely four degrees (or more) by 2025 ie six years from now …  in my opinion I cannot see how this can be avoided.

Greenland we read will add 23 feet to global water levels, that is one heck of a lot of cities rendered inoperable, likewise nuclear power plants. With it come tsunamis, el Nino due to increased freshwater and associated rainfall and associated high winds. Its a horrible set of interconnected feedback loops, we read that such increased pressure on tectonic plates will cause plate movements. Right now the circulations of water and air is drawing cold out of the Arctic and pumping warmth into it. This looks bad for  the remaining ice sheet (albedo / reflecting the suns rays)  for thawing methane hydrate etc etc. Remember my illustration of the usable space we have on this planet, it corresponds to a one thou thick (0.001 in) cigarette paper licked onto a childs eight inch football. This illustration of mine also displays how our usable planetary space is so vulnerable to a changed set of circumstances or influencing factors.

I think at the moment with accelerated changes information is a little slow to seep through, theres a time-lag, scientists have always a need to be certain of their observations. Therefore what is actually happening ie jet stream, methane hydrates, ice melt is probably worse than we realise, or putting it less alarmist the data is moving too fast ahead of us.

Its baffling how in all this we still have the ‘counter-information movement’ that on google page one is adamant to correct any thoughts of climate change and that good ‘ol fossil fuels are our friends!  I praise Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in having the guts to get the message out that every single person is responsible for their carbon footprint, the energy and resources in day to day life ie to drastically reduce air travel, the need to minimise beef consumption.  Even here at my own place the washing machine broke a month ago and I’m quite capable of washing by hand. I am lucky, theres next to no dirt or grime on my clothes so therefore an hours soak in washing powder gets ’em as clean as any machine wash. So far i quite like this non-electric approach but of course deep winter will make it a quite onerous task and I do not have a houseful of kids and a husband to keep well presented.

James Lovelock in the text for his book  ‘Gaia’ long before it became common knowledge among ordinary people stresses the interconnectedness of natures many feedback loops, how earth is one heck of a developed and refined self regulating machine. Very much an independant Scientist and all the better for it.

In the link below the academic writing as Sam Carana is ahead of most of us (at least as to what we admit publicly) in his thinking. The apparent slowness, obfuscation and plain simple ignorance of trump and his backers and suchlike journalists and so-called news sites is staggeringly stupid, near beyond belief if other than it is real and happening.  http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html

At random google p.1 …

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-is-coming-for-your-hamburgers

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/07/green-new-deal-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-plan

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/14/politics/green-new-deal-proposal-breakdown/index.html

postscript …. 7th March 2019 bbc r4 news at 6pm we get a tailend at near the end of the prog re Greenland ice melt and how nowadays there is far more rain (pouring onto the ice massif). Uh-oh, i reckon my 4 deg C  by 2025 could well occur…. i would hardly think there could be much of the Greenland ice sheet remaining?

Climate change discussion.

Just found this … https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

… its in nature.com so it has validity.

With the temp rise, the loss of diatoms and the loss of coral (erroneously in my opinion termed ‘bleaching) the bryozoans fail, die because the microscopic partners have gone. Therefore to paraphrase trump … “Who would have known invisible things could be so complicated” … yup!

I got the link above from arctic-news … makes for the grimmest reading, but I’m glad its there. As I’ve learnt and repeated for the life of this blog the past year it is the sledge hammer threat from the thawing subsea methane that will stop the pendulum of life. Its a fact, its elementary observation and realisation, things as yet hardly seen that we cannot get politicians or the IPCC to take heed; the latter as generally acknowledged by climate-savvy scientists to be a report twenty years behind; witness the fact that the IPCC does not even recognise or factor in the importance of arctic methane release which in fact will be the death of us all.

Yet can we get ‘the man in the street’ to ponder on these things, to think a little bit more ???

Go back to my post half a year ago ‘making a model of planet Earth’ we are in fact a habitable zone of a wet cigarette paper placed on a childs 8inch football. Thats all we have and so hence our habitable layer is ultra sensitive to change, is staggeringly interconnected in all climate systems, jet stream, oceanic waterflow, gulf stream, accelerated melting of Greenland ad infinitum …  never mind the fun down in the Antarctic.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/01/global-extinction-within-18-34-months.html

Please note I always have my radar turned on for either plain simple crackpot sites or sites designed to mislead or render a subject as ‘nuts’ ie misinformation. Beware that general media can be ‘loaded’ in this respect. My own beef being bbc radio news r4 being so un-crtical of trump and their choice of words actually sounding to support him or serve him up in the best light. That is what I think is the value of my blog, quality material.

postscript …. we may as well have the video from the latest arctic-news, it makes a valuable contribution.

 

Its just hit me, this year I cannot recall seeing the little hoverflies that used to be so prevalant at my local nature reserve the ‘pit heap’.

In five years time will I be able to see any honeybees, any pied flycatchers here in the UK ?? … I think the answer will be negative.