I subscribe to updates from carbonbrief.org and this just arrived in this morning. Makes for interesting reading, and pertinent to these last few weeks wishing this countrys leadership can get back to focusing on climate change, the elimination of poverty and coping with the future.
But lets also remind ourselves of COP26 Glasgow … what did it achieve?
Were the right people invited?
How will COP26 be viewed in hindsight?
In actual effect was it pointless?
One could be certainly justified in saying it was pointless, the IPCC we must remember does not factor in the effects of methane, something that can arrive as microbial activity, thawing methane hydrate previously locked as ice, and subsea ice itself thawing and allowing vent to previously trapped methane fields. Also, I find it erroneous when the multiplication factor of say 80x is bandied around for methane which is a projection over an incredibly generous time frame, in reality with a series of big releases in one season of thawing our time on this planet would be measured in months, and at that timeframe the methane effect must surely be many hundreds that of CO2.
This rolled up into a news story mid-December and quite rightly too but what no-one is mentioning is the monstrous tidal wave and subsequent follow-on ripples when the Thwaites Glacier drops into the sea. This is not an ‘if’, it is an absolute certainty, only question is ‘when’ … and probably a lot quicker than we have bargained for. The question is, how far around the globe will this tsunami from Thwaites actually penetrate?
We hear of the likes of Henry Dimbleby on bbc r4 this teatime informing us of the need to re-wild, the need to minimise meat consumption (yes I concur) but the arguament re methane in agriculture is quite tiny (and laughable) when one considers the likely many multiple ‘methane burps’ from the Arctic; our actions to remedy are a mere pin-prick and is JUST NOT worth the effort! As well as feel-good platitudes we need to evaluate quantities, realise the scale of what nature can throw at us. Then we’ll realise how we are wasting our time.
I’ve seen so-called ‘re-wilding’ and I suggest creating a better urban landscape, more competent gardens at home is a more valuable exercise.
It is pointless but lets pretend we are trying, we need ….
i) a one child policy.
ii) the near elimination of the American style burger culture.
iii) to live close/ local to our work.
I myself am a twit, no fridge, no washing machine (or tv or mobile) … but does my personal endeavour really help matters at all, not at all unless I can get half of every country in the world to do the same. Will they, not really and y’know it doesn’t even matter….
I’ve lain fallow on this for a few weeks following the damp squib of a wasted COP26 Glasgow, to let the dust settle so to speak, to reflect. The IPCC should hang their heads in shame.
The four years of a trump vested interest and an ‘in reverse’ shambles of what could only laughingly be called an ‘administration’ (note I deny him upper case) has not helped this planet or its peoples in any way whatsoever unless of course you are already an exceedingly rich US billionaire; lets face it millions are small change these days….
But trump is not a billionaire, no matter how crooked his schemes and evasions it has still left him hanging on propped up by debt from lenders of near last resort.
I worry about the Yemen, the inexcusable shambles of a deliberately callous Afghanistan withdrawl etc etc
In all this blog of say six hundred posts I reckon my sources are of good quality, will stand to scrutiny and illuminate and educate. Brave people, particularly in the USA, they face demotion or dismissal for speaking like this.
Heres two for climate change …
Note in the above from Dr Guy Macpherson his concern at the big hit from ozone depletion at 02:45 from rising sea level and hence the loss and destruction of nuclear generation (ie meltdown) and hence near instant ozone loss rendering the ‘out of doors’ uninhabitable. Its a chilling quote “The living will envy the dead” at 03:28. My own hobby horse is diatoms and the oceanic plankton that scrub half of the worlds carbon for us for free, all are near or are actually microscopic; trees and land based CO2 conversion will fail us I’m sure and unfortunately the plankton too. We’ve played with a world size chemistry set and it all appears inevitable. I found the link for the above on …. https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/
Here below is disturbing footage, note the blackened ice, note how beavers are colonising further north and flood the land / permafrost with their dams, the catastrophic opening of Arctic ocean seaways with accompanying noise pollution destroying marine mammal habitat and their ability to communicate and organise.
An occasional diary of lines in the sky for North East England, posting 18th Dec ’21.
Last few days mostly bright blue skies, often unseasonably warm and often lines in the sky which I’m classifying as chemtrail. Its pointless talking to anyone about this, with zero sum knowledge the average person will still refute any suggestion of mine.
These things classed chemtrail do not disperse quickly as per conventional condensation trail but persist and broaden as minutes and even the hour passes by, as proved yesterday afternoon and this morning at sunrise, pics below. Its assumed much elevated chemtrail aluminium levels are to blame for autism in CA kids, loss of smaller life forms in west coast USA streams and rivers, increased combustibility as per crazy wildfires, etc etc. Lets also think collapse of seabird population which is hardly mentioned, but if we lose the microscopic diatoms (of which we draw 70% of the worlds oil and gas from ancient deposits) we are speeding their demise and their vital function as carbon capture. All of this is scientifically verifiable ….. ask any professional diatomist ie the experts that are employed by oil exploration companies.
We’ve opened up a crazy box of interconnected feedbacks, we’ve played with something we shouldn’t. Glasgow COP26 was a travesty; waffle and humbug. A childs football is eight inch diameter, this corresponds at an inch per thousand miles, the usable space we have is one thousandths of an inch ie cigarette paper thin, a quarter thickness of 80gsm copier paper (ie the thin stuff).
This ‘whitening’ of the skies i suspect is going to be a near everyday experience here in North East England.
Fisrstly heres this morning ie 08:30 GMT Saturday 18th Dec 2021.
The above lasted in the sky for an hour or two, did not fade away anything like a regular ‘contrail’.
Above is late afternoon Friday 17th December, more obvious in reality, all the lines are chemtrail.
In the above NASA Worldview screenshot for 16th Dec ’21 my own experience tells me theres more chemtrail effect or presence than the raw tyro would appreciate, but over north east England and its coastline its obvious theres chemtrail and the maturing product of same.
Above is 15th Nov ’21 early morning, theres too much going on here for any well balanced individual to take pics of everything! Look carefully, theres several chemtrail plus chemtrail reaction ie a needless hazy obscured sky.
Chemtrail above, 19 Nov ’21 north east England. We had lots of chemtrail at around this time, half hidden at best.
This bugs me, for the first time ever I can hang out towels at 11pm just short of them dripping with a hand wring from a wash in my downstairs loo sink as per my usual routine (being sans washing machine at this location) and bingo next morning they are dry. This may be usual in say the Caribbean but is not the norm for the north east of England in mid November!
The year end of 2026 is the line in the sand I chose for what is tolerable and what is as mentioned to friend Gary the point at which I presume conditions may well become difficult indeed. COP26 has been an utter failure, who the hell handpicks these numskulls? Pundit Beckwith over on youtube includes footage and dreary as his presentations as ever are they do illustrate some very misleading presentations at COP26. Footnote: Paul, please try and assimilate NT manner and humour…. your fifteen minute vids are hell to get through.
COP26 seems to have utterly disregarded interconnected amplifying feedbacks and their importance, their many-fold increase over anything linear, ‘linear’ being the darling of COP26 and the emasculated head in the sand IPCC and the curse of NOT being able to get a grip on what really is happening.
One country India should not have been allowed to water down the COP26 statement re coal use, the general concensus and plain common sense dictates how we should proceed. Its no use the individual doing his or her best to minimise carbon footprint when its the big emitters and industries that must offer clout and crunch the big numbers.
A statement, merely something on paper, this is what men in suits do best, when will the scientists and engineers be given chance to show their best? I think an alternative to COP needs to be instigated, I would hope such a thing is happening right now. But if you read and listen to tone and the possible outcome of many experts on this, those at the sharp end with knowledge, direct observation and data they too think as I do that a vast chemistry set of reactions has been set in motion and I doubt theres much we can do. For instance look at jet stream, arctic warming, Greenland ice melt, ocean plankton, etc etc.
COP26 was feeble, an obfuscation, fiddling whilst Rome burns.
In all practicality with impending arctic methane and the interconnectedness of amplifying feedbacks its all just window dressing so to speak but as responsible adults and responsible nations we must do our best, we must never give up on this. Though it would be useful to think we could look back and think we did our best the scene set is not good and immediate practical effect of our efforts looks very poor indeed. One point five will soon look irrelevant to everyone, it will blow away in the breeze, but if it helps minds focus then so be it.
Watching silly billionaires pour their money into junk spaceflights and super yachts is uncomfortable to watch; shame upon them, pity we couldn’t boycott their activities, I never have been keen on Amazon anyway. A glorified shopkeeper!
note in the above the heat over vast at present still withheld gas reserves in northern Canada and likewise the heat exactly over the shallow Laptev Sea ie northern Siberia. In time and we are already in my opinion at that point the Arctic instead of cooling the planet will become a vast engine, an agency of heating, our enemy so to speak. Its only in recent years scientists are working out the worlds water circulation into the Arctic, the importance and danger between fresh and saline, warm and cold.
Ice is funny stuff, once huge bodies of it ie the Greenland ice sheet is most obviously melting with endless melt pools and rivers falling thousands of feet into the interior of the ice massif then theres nothing that in all practicality can be done to halt this process. In pure vengeance I’d like to winch trump and his cronies beneath a helicopter and dump them in the middle of the fast thawing wilderness, a childish idea perhaps, but for the harm and delay they have caused I think perfectly justifiable.
Watch out for methane which exists in three forms, vast trapped reserves, subsea frozen hydrate and as the result of a warming of ancient carbon deposits now being prompted to microbial activity. As repeated already the irony of burning ancient diatomaceous oil and associated gas deposits has led to their oceanic demise, thats half of the world CO2 conversion gone, increasing CO2 also means trees and green land based CO2 conversion activity will also decrease, its their natural reaction. Fun times ahead.
postscript, please read arctic-news.blogspot … here i copy and paste re methane and the IPCC total refusal to acknowledge its importance or apparently its existence !!!
copy and paste …”One of the largest threats is seafloor methane and despite repeated warning from some of the best experts in the field, the IPCC simply waves away this threat. This and other elements in the bar have been discussed in detail in many earlier posts such as this one and on the extinction page.”
COP26 is a failure, worse than I feared it would be.
Where are the scientists, where are the new ideas, the latest data, feedback projections?
It has dumbed down even below what a weak and blind IPCC could have stage managed.
I predicted a huge backlash to mans intransigence and eternal hubris and boy o boy theres going to be some very angry people, and in many senses rightly so.
Its my opinion the UK Government is delighted we are entering rapid and gross inflation, it will massage downwards the huge spend from Rishi, much of the money being quite un-needed, £10k lump sums to small businesses that didn’t need it and a furlough scheme that I reckon has been much abused and which continued for far too long. Covid is still out there but in many instances its a case of “Covid – what covid?”
I’m not impressed on the performance of bbc radio news on getting detail out on what really matters as we move forward to an unstoppable oven of catastrophe, this will make any war look as a minor scale dummy run.
We hardly hear of the feedback effect of multiple systems all catastrophically amplifying each others effect and eventually the collapse of one another, like a house of cards, in essence negating or destroying each single systems ability to survive; lets throw a few probable eventualities around…
diatoms and plankton will die, are in fact dieing, therefore half of the world CO2 to O collapses. Who mentions this?
the ability of land based green growing things decreases CO2 conversion as CO2 itself increases, never mind methane.
aerosol masking multiplier.
ice gone, particularly the importance of vertical melt.
fact: jet stream now in two parts, dragging warm wet air over the Arctic.
fact: sunspot max for 2026 and transition from El Nana to El Nino coincides!
weather systems will waver and abandon the worlds conventional food production areas.
meat production (burgers?) needs to be drastically curtailed / minimised.
live near to your work.
does anyone consider pollution from commercial sources, diesel fuelled agriculture, construction and the military?
if we are for a fact losing/ have lost insect populations, hence we are losing small songbirds then what if we lose earthworms … that would be catastrophe.
if the oceans are warmer and of greater bulk what of tectonic plate shift?
existing wind and solar depends on established conventional weather patterns, not weather in flux.
we need a one child policy.
Nero himself would be aghast as how we are holding our nerve and blind to what is happening, fiddling with inconsequentials when the big things need to be addressed. The tree problem for instance, unless its evergreen ie the conifer then here in northern latitudes we have a thing called autumn leaf fall, likewise most green growing things, for half the year are near to dormant. The tree thing is difficult in the UK, already near all land is used as is most appropriate, theres not much slack.
Still thinking trees, we only have land surface to play with and most of that being unsuitable, yet six sevenths of the worlds surface is water, therefore in my opinion a solution must be water based / oceanic.
Heres an idea, rather than carbon offset which is in itself an often dubious mechanism we could have death offset, pay poor brown people to die instead of ourselves … mighty quicker than a one child policy! Whoops, gallows humour.
Timescale? I just read stuff (preferably by scientists) … year 2026 will I fear be a much different place than where we are now, see the above bullet point list, year 2030 may well have seen homo sapiens much compromised if not near extinct.
note in the above further down the page mention of ‘hole in sea ice in Laptev Sea 2010’,
The Laptev Sea will become famous for its shallowness and store of methane hydrate now set into melt mode. One could spend day upon day compiling this information, I only hope readers delve further than what at preseent at least at this address appears google presenting an obstacle at seeking out the latest scientific opinion, if it was fashion or burgers or stupid social networking it would be presenting me with a myriad of connections.
I abhor groups and crowds at the best of times buts let remember theres going to be one heck of a covid spike after scenes such as this slow moving jumble of people. How horrifying to be trapped in such a manner.
Covid virus is so small two hundred of the virus will fit side by side in one thousandth of an inch … this equates to four hundred virus side by side across the thickness of a human hair ie 0.002in. Lab workers, biochemists etc know fine well as how dastardly small virus can be and how difficult therefore to work with.
Masks may hinder breath projection which is all to the good but I doubt have much effect at scrubbing inward breath, distance is crucial, as is hand washing and minimising cross contamination, imagine its a powerful red dye that sticks to surfaces, keep off!
It is our daily 365 lives that signal our true carbon footprint, at the moment I’ve got my annualised electricity for my house at 86p a day, at the old tariff I wonder if I can get that to below 80p? Now I just need to work on the gas. We mustn’t lose sight that we still need to be productive in our work and business, unless of course our lives are propelled into a new and topsy turvy world of extinct businesses, shortages and limitations.
I fear for the poor, already in the UK Boris and rich kid Rishi are doing their best to knock the poor back, blind to the hardship they are creating with stopping a measley £20 note, this in practical reality anything BUT the handy feelgood ‘levelling up’ as promised. A lot of of what we hear from number ten is mere feelgood mantra, a slogan, a handy peg to hang an air thin promise upon, a soundbite and little else. Look at the decade and more of defunding of the NHS, ditto Education. Boris ‘acts the part’ but is no politician of any great ability, he does not respect Parliament quite obviously and from my observation has no perceptible knowledge or desire to take us to a better place.
I have no fear of the future, its as if we ourselves are a vast experiment viewed from some distant planet so to speak; our journey of exploration and discovery has spanned a hundred thousand years of stone tools to agriculture, to towns and cities, religion, electricity, the electron, things digital etc. I really don’t know if its at all possible to ‘get out of this jam’.
But also I can’t help but feel what a pity we invented the internal combustion engine! knowledge or desire
At least as a species we’ll not go down without an effort.
The more I think about all this the more I get bugged … Mans intransigence and utmost stupidity, trumps one trillion to the already super-wealthy, the craving for the latest bigger and bigger SUV, the multi home and multi car lifestyle. And sadly academics and scientists at least so far to this point having to keep shtum re the real situation, otherwise you get fired, side-lined, demoted, transferred to other duties; the USA particularly endemic of this so very non-scientific manner of managing things.
Lets drag a few other points, elaborate and often wasteful food consumption ….. just look at the problem of obesity. The need for a foreign holiday. The nonsense of countries saying “Look at our reduced carbon footprint” when in fact most our of goods are made in China, shipped across the world and the West has the audacity to accuse Chine of carbon footprint! Lets remember until recent times all through the C20 the near universal personal mode of transport in China was the bicycle.
Meat being dumped, does this figure in the news, the actual amount of meat taken back off supermarket shelves as out of date, I’ve witnessed this late in the evening as standard supermarket practice, is there data on this, is it fully recognised? I think I’ve had merely half a dozen traditional Sunday dinners in thirty years and now cooking my own food even regrettably being a meat eater I can pad out any casserole or stew with lots of veg, herbs and spices, particularly so far with tricks from India and Pakistan, hint … incorporate punchpooran, a five seed mix that to my mind eliminates the need for salt or meat to any great extent.
In my opinion a one child policy is essential.
1.5 degrees is now a nonsense, its obscene to think this is still a valid number, likewise 2050 ….
Anything style ‘2050’ is utter nonsense, we haven’t got the time, I doubt we’ll be here. Likewise I doubt if the vast majority of humans will be here by 2035. I wonder how diluted will be the reports planned for the first day at COP26, I’d like to think there will be a few suprises, maybe scientists will come forward and ‘grow a pair’ so to speak.
This morning I read of the tragic and gross scouring of the sea bed by deep trawling, surely this should have been stopped years ago?
Interestingly its only been this week I’ve encountered the term ‘vertical melt’ … this is exactly what I’ve been railing about all the time I’ve blogged here, ie three / four years. As all kids know, the extent of snow and ice can still appear as it has been first arrived but only at closer observation can we see that in fact its the thickness that much reduces every day until suddenly one morning we wake up and our sledging and fun in the snow has completely gone. That, is the nature of snow and ice.
Link below for a high quality overview of climate change….