the virus mess-up …

The UK Governments insistence on checking for antibodies is the wrong direction, it is actual viral infection (being an active carrier) that surely is what we need particularly for the NHS. Knowing carriers cuts down forward thrust, antibody presence is the slow baggage cart that follows, not the intrusive nature of the virus particles themselves at the spearhead so to speak. Right now press-speak / soundbites are rife with crazy often silly analogies, now we are getting ‘green shoots’,  theres at least one new one each day.  bbc r4 reveals this morning the UK Government is going for the wrong virus test, that hardly in reality any NHS staff have been tested for the the virus itself. And now we hear four frontline Doctors are dead.

I see after say a three week absence we are again hearing of ‘herd immunity’ which in crude low tech societies would be the eventual outcome, I thought we were capable of better than this.

The waffle and BS from no.10 is becomg a bit stale and ineffectual, I feel the best or capable advisors seem absent, even one top-flight UK university can perform more tests (was that a day or a week) that all the Government backed UK-wide tests performed so far. Apparently as of yesterday no-one has contacted all the small independent labs or University labs at taking up the workload.

Methinks Imperial College seems the Government principal contributor, front-line NHS staff Docs etc are basically ignored, the PPE is disastrous, contraryto the Government spin, woefully insufficient, unsuitable old or dirty, very little full face or of sufficient protection.  When Doctors ten days ago were using terms such as ‘lambs to the slaughter’ then we really are in a fix, Docs are not prone to over-exaggeration; after all, educationally (and their experience) is the best Britain has. China will have much that we need, after all they will have ramped up production massively.

So many things are quite not what they seem, a mask will not really save you from infection unless its full face and forced air ventilation. Virus are notoriously small, sub-microscopic unless you go to the electron microscope; their smallness hence means they are scattered as confetti everywhere. In my opinion conventional masks merely hinder outward breath and therefore particle projection. It was stated as ‘news’ this morning that coughs and sneezes have been found by a lab in the USA to project eight and nine feet respectively. Good God, how simplistic have we become?

I now have a disinfectant floor tray at my house entrance so I can help clean my footwear, I suspect supermarket floors are a source of coronavirus-19 infection and spread. I also suspect pet dogs, so hands off! Our carpets could become a reservoir. Likewise mobile phones will be reservoirs of infection.

Some people just don’t seem to ‘get it’ how social distancing is vital to knock the spread. I still see a neighbour every day have his buddies round for motorbike buddy talk; I’ve seen this elsewhere, biker guys seem so sad and lonely … HAVE to talk.

I feel so sorry for third world countries, for the poor, the displaced. At least we in the west are more able to create space and distance to thwart the spread.

Its a Thursday and we are informed its another Thursday evening front-step applause for the NHS and other vital workers, supermarket staff etc. I’m just wondering, increasingly sceptical of this move, after all realise the smallness of the virus itself, its probable it will stay in the air for days; therefore everyone out on their step collectively sharing their breath and exultation is a sure guarantee to destroy any effort at social distancing. Madness! 

Virus are measured in millionths of an inch, to open the engineers micrometer at one thousandth of an inch would mean we could fit in one hundred virus particles side by side … if they are as big as ten millionths of an inch. Difficult to find coronavirus-19 particle size online. Search term ‘morphology’ gets the results we need.

The second link below allows us a glimpse at the sophistication and knowledge employed by the scientists themselves. It always worthwhile to realise what others do for a living, their level of education and abilities .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4369385/

We read from the above wiki, using the handy search term ‘morphology’  the virus particles are 120nm which of course is metric as is all lab and scientific work. Pasting from google search we find I quote …. A nanometer is one billionth of a meter, 0.000000001 or 10-9 meters. The word nano comes from the Greek word for “dwarf.” unquote.

Heres an example of group stupithink… this is unwieldy, note how the 0’s are not kept in threes for ease of reading, nowhere in engineering do we use tiny dimensions as ‘parts of a metre’ in small component manufacture it is ALL in mm (millimetre) or hundredth part thereof. Therefore knock off three noughts to get part of a mm ie in mm = 1×10-6 ie 0.000001mm, hint the ‘6th bit’ being the position of the final number one.

As an engineer I naturally think in terms of ‘a thousandth of an inch’ I can visualise it, know where it matters, where to incorporate it and when to ignore and when to take account of it.

Now, I know 0.025 mm is roughly equiv to one thousandth of an inch ie 0.001in.

Therefore as we visualise a thousandth of a thousandth of an inch as in my initial micrometer example firstly above we add three more ‘0’ to the mix, ie 0.025mm     becomes  0.000 025mm (note I bunch up zeroes in groups of three for ease of reading).

Therefore 0.000,025mm = a millionth of an inch ie 0.000,0001in

As 0.000,001mm is 1nm (ie 10×10-6) the above value is 25nm.

Voila! We can now visualise in real terms what we are talking about.

Therefore the coronavirus-19 particles are five millionths of an inch. We can place not a thousand side by side in our micrometer opening of 0.001in as if they were a millionth of an inch but ‘merely’ but a fifth of this ie two hundred virus particles side by side.

This demonstrates the virus will behave more like a gas than a particle, you have only to see how hedgerow seed from common orchis floats dips and rises on the still air, never seeming to want to drop to earth and orchid seed is (to borrow a Boris word) hugely bigger.

 

Postscript: We are coming to one thousand deaths per day this weekend. Hold up your hands, form an ‘0’ with RH thumb and forefinger, this gives us eight little piggies to count with, each space representing three days ie a total span of 21 days. Count out from the left one thousand, two, four, eight, sixteen, thirty two, sixty four, one hundred and twenty eight thousand deaths in one day in three weeks time.  Well seeing social distancing is so vital, of the utmost importance. No wonder scientists talk of it ‘running through the herd’ this admits they have nothing else.

copyright climate-change-briefing.com 2020

the virus in NE England….

All of this is only my guesswork in realising the need to self-isolate, but I bet I’m not far off the mark. Here I am in NE England and last nights Guardian website has a map of  the UK and by estimating the size of the pictorial data it looks to be seven deaths from the virus in the North East.

Lets say two weeks to show symptoms and a week to die therefore seven deaths show the scene at three weeks ago; at 1% fatality therefore 700 infected as of three weeks ago.

If contamination doubles every three days therefore 96,000 carriers are present right now Friday in this region ie north east England. Divide that by say thirty big supermarkets as a handy indicator of populations or areas (and where we still congregate) and it means 3,200 carriers in each of thirty areas across the region today.  Lets use the Morpeth, Northumberland area as an illustration, divide 96,000 carriers by 30 and we get 3,200 carriers in that area and probably most if not all shop at the main supermarket. As my g/f concedes everything I’ve feared / predicted has come true.

I’ve been using disposable gloves for a month, have feared groceries, post and deliveries for the last three weeks, all are left in the hallway for a few day before opening and post and parcels only received wearing fresh gloves that are immediately binned. I operate 3m not 2m distancing and get angry when I see needless waffle at the supermarket or wherever. Remember this virus as with all viruses has never been seen by any form of optical light microscope, only are they detectable as huge populations grown in the lab or by a scanning electron microscope. Covid-19 loves the respiratory tract and is delighted to hitch a free ride on the exhaled air from peoples lungs.

I can well see why the UK Government wants us all to be self-isolating and its importance for this simple arithmetic to indicate IT IS RIGHT NOW that we need to self-isolate.

My fears and prediction of the USA catastrophe is now apparent. A combination of trump idiocy and pay as you go is incendiary to the corona virus situation. His recent cant and BS of ‘all well by Easter’ is exactly the wrong message, this will excuse people to be less vigilant. I’ve always alluded to the similarity of Mao and trump, at this rate he’ll join the big-boy league of mass killings through incompetence posing as ability.

My fearful prediction sorry to say is that our sample area of Morpeth could well have thirty two deaths by three weeks time.  We heard on the bbc radio news a few days ago of instructions for each Parish to locate thirty burial plots and a site for a mass grave. It was unfortunate the term ‘herd immunity’ was much bandied two or three weeks ago, in fact this is what must happen but its not nice to hear.

I don’t think we need much of mathematical modelling from Imperial (no disrespect intended) to see what is happening, fag packet workings are sufficient, all we need know are transmission rates, multiplying factors such as rates of growth and time from infection to death and the exact numbers of deaths in the last 24 hrs. I’ve marked in my diary to revisit this post in three weeks ie Friday 17 April and see how close my fearful guesses have materialised.

I feel so sorry for frontline NHS Staff, badly let down with essential supplies and merely a face mask, ill-fitting pinny and gloves is tragic, to some extent the Johnson Government has repeatedly whitewashed over this glaring shortfall. I also feel so sorry for people in London and also supermarket check-out staff are in a woefully vulnerable position.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019

https://www.theguardian.com/world/coronavirus-outbreak

As detailed below in the Guardian today thank goodness only one country has a so-called leader so hopeless. I think also and I’ve never heard anyone say as such being out of the EU I think has allowed us to react (mostly) effectively.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/trump-narcissism-american-blood-coronavirus

And a day later an appraisal of trump performance yet again confirms his gross unsuitability to be a President of anything …. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster

 

Hint: never speak directly to anyone, turn 90 degrees if absolutely essential you must speak, merely nod at the supermarket check-out.

Minimise / elimate all needless chatter to anyone outside the home.

Make it a 3m rule, 2m is too close to be safe.  Exercise social distancing within the family, within the home, walk out for exercise but keep apart!

Only accept post and parcels with gloves, bin the gloves and leave the items unopened / untouched for a few days.

Wear disposable gloves at all times and particularly if needing to go to a shop. Try not to hop from shop to shop, ideally one shop only. If no gloves use a food bag or kitchen towel, bin all once out of the shop. Use a disposable bag and gloves when gripping the shopping basket or trolley, safer to self scan.

Ideally shed your outside or shopping clothes once home and wash them straight away.

Remember no-one has ever seen a virus through an optical microscope, they are so small, an analogy could be when fine ground chilli powder is everywhere and we know from experience how it can ‘get everywhere’ when cooking.

Avoid fools ! And regard everyone as being a carrier therefore avoid.

The unfortunate but accurate term ‘herd immunity’ means that possibly everyone will become infected.

copyright climate-change-briefing.com 2020

Americas downfall will be its health system.

Has anyone thought about the fact that the American ‘having to pay’ health system, trumps mash-up of anything scientific or expert and the dreaded ICE persual of anyone of colour ie Mexican or Moslem will mean vast millions of poor and disadvantaged will be rendered as unclean, as lepers overnight?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak

In fact anyone below a ‘very good income’ will be I would imagine at a greater risk of not being intercepted, of being to use that horrible term a ‘super-spreader’. Or perhaps more accurately it means the poor will not be tested or effectively processed at the earlier stages of cov19; which of course is exactly the time when intervention is most useful. Therefore we can say that Americas so-called ‘health system’ is an utter shambles, is in fact the ‘worst case’ situation. This also highlights how trumps assault onto the poorer areas of society, the undocumented etc are feared to come forward. One could say that for some trump takes us back to the Stone Age; very fitting as trump denies science and expertise.

Thank goodness here in the UK we have the NHS. Old fashioned washing of hands is realised to be so important, something I always do readily anyway perhaps to a bit of a mild obsession few others seemed so inclined until now.

From what I can see the Chinese look to have handled this outbreak very well; they have the clout to lock down as required, yet the initial stages and the poor doctor that died are shameful. However the strength of the CCP has been to their advantage.

Therefore as much the USA with mobster and perennial liar / fantasist trump at the helm wishes to be seen as slick, quick and on the ball once we are through this coronavirus problem the USA I fear will have seemed so backward no matter how much trump tries to whitewash, as Stone Age compared to China.

Funny huh …  how in so few short years trump has taken America back to a third rate nation.

https://a.msn.com/r/2/BB10Um8V?m=en-gb&referrerID=InAppShare

 

trump and his many pronged attack on good sense and decency...
trump and his many pronged attack on good sense and decency…