Arctic methane and its speed of delivery.

As this link below stresses and it is quoting Natalia Shakhova, University of Alaska (a world expert) when methane burps it will be exraordinarilly fast, hours, a day or two, not years. And note also the strength of methane over CO2 in a short time frame, I think its 120 fold over a five year period, imagine if that can be possible when its a two day or two week time-frame for the methane to do its work.

Release of Arctic Methane “May Be Apocalyptic,” Study Warns

Today I’m using my old stack with Firefox and immediately a whole new world of links and information unfolds, I knew fine well my newer purchase of six months ago (Dell with windows 10)  was holding me back from getting at the online news and reports that I need.

more to follow.

IPCC and the refusal to acknowledge the importance of impending methane release.

IPCC is wrong.

Just now I heard on bbc r4 ‘Inside Science’ an interview with Phil Williamson  from Univ East Anglia ie https://people.uea.ac.uk/p_williamson   … concerning the latest report from the IPCC in which impending methane release is given very low priority. This is utterly baffling, quite erroneous and I think the placative ‘one metre by the end of the century’ to be shameful in its misleading nature.

There will not be any  ‘end of century’ to witness I am afraid.

Most of what was said I disagreed with from Phil Williamson, for instance stating that coral reefs could re-generate in fifteen years is utter nonsense, yet again no mention of the bryozoan / diatom symbiosis. Diatoms factor into so many perspectives of what we are going through. I may be wrong, merely an interested layman here. However to quote myself …

Diatoms also live a symbiotic relationship with Bryozoans ie the coloured animals that create and live in coral reefs. It is a dire irony that consuming the oil and gas of ancient diatoms ie comprising 70% of the oil and gas industry has led to both their own and our demise. No-one has ever seen a diatom with the naked eye.
diatoms – climate-change-briefing
climate-change-briefing.com/category/diatoms/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diatom

http://www.microscopy-uk.org.uk/micropolitan/marine/algae/index.html

I would have thought last years IPCC Annual Report in which low importance was given to impending methane release (ie thawing permafrost cap releasing already formed methane gas, rapidly rising microbial activity and thawing methane calthrates; both from land and from the horribly shallow East Siberian ice shelf )  would have now been aligned with enlightened thinking but no, its been swept under the carpet yet again by the IPCC and its select band of contributors. In addition Phils endeavour to constantly massage downward the numbers to 1.5 from 2.0 degrees warming is taking things too far, as dangerous as any over-exaggeration, in my opinion from what I read of other scientists 2 deg C will soon come and go, to be overshot rapidly.

Why is it Prof Peter Wadhams was not interviewed, he knows ice, a lifetimes work.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/aug/21/farewell-to-ice-peter-wadhams-review-climate-change

Its the nature of nature to ramp and accelerate as outside influences ie mans fossil fuel greed and polluting activities come home to roost. ‘Ye reap as ye shall sow’ seems appropriate. https://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/Bible-Verses-About-Reap-What-You-Sow/

Sorry to get Biblical but maybe its an ‘endtimes prompt’ because after all as time trundles on what else shall we cling to, occupy our time?

 

 

Work in progress, more info on IPCC obfuscation as info is obtained, merely the opinion of an interested layman.

A few hours later and bbc r4 again broadcasts the radio programme ‘Inside Science’ from five hours previously. Never before have I been so glad of a quick repeat. I feel sorry for Phil Williamson, I can hear in his voice the tension between what the IPCC expects and his own self worth and integrity; he invites others to reach their own conclusions, this I applaud. This also highlights the IPCC to focus on published papers where in fact change is happening SO FAST that published and peer reviewed papers have a self defeating time lag that we now need to circumvent, a view I’ve held since I first latched on to climate change a couple of years ago. Therefore the best we can be sure of is to listen to the likes of Peter Wadhams and for instance Jason Box and Natalia Shakhova.

https://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/blogs/99-russian-scientists-excluded-from-presenting-important-research-as-nasa-goddard-director-tries-to-discredit-observational-scientific-research

From the above I quote …

The event, held a fortnight ago, is still causing controversy beyond the negative tweeting by NASA Goddard Director, Dr Gavin Schmidt. Schmidt aimed his presentation at discrediting the Russian’s work, using theoretical models, without expertise in methane, or credible data. The end result is that the Russian team have composed a letter to Royal Society President, Sir Paul Nurse, asking for an opportunity to present their findings, including contributions from over 30 scientists working in the region for over 20 years.

end of quote.

Also,

https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2017/06/interview-by-nick-breeze-with-dr.html

How the Arctic climate drama runs its course

And …

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/09/ipcc-sea-level-rise-report/598765/

 

The ‘main man’ Sam Carana reports on the limp kow-towing IPCC Report and informs us that the IPCC doesn’t even add in methane from the submerged East Siberian ice-shelf ie what will be a quick warming and vast release of methane from less than 50m of underwater thaw; this beggars belief. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/09/ipcc-report-ocean-and-cryosphere-in-a-changing-climate.html

 

 

 

Greenland ice melt.

I keep it brief, we know fine well what is to happen;  I haven’t the patience nor attention span for a fifteen minute ‘presentation’ or anyone droning on with minutae so to speak.

Its obvious already we are into extreme weather events both in ferocity and frequency,   likewise ice melt is heading in a most awful direction, note undersea ice volume as unseen from sat images will soon in a year or two at most surprise us all. Most arctic ice quite horribly is 0.5 metres or less.

Chemtrails are getting clever too, Tuesday morning last before any visible light from the Sun I could see huge definite parallel trails across the sky, I photographed them too with tripod and timer. Also this morning weather sat revealed huge amount of chemtrails NW of Ireland in the North Atlantic heading towards Ireland and Europe. Remember this most likely I am assuming contains aluminium, barium, strontium, etc in nano-particle form.

Therefore I am mindful to ‘keep it simple’ to live a righteous considerate life, gain pleasure where I can, to help whoever I may and am so sorry we are at such ‘interesting times’.

The real big triggers are ice loss, disappearing permafrost and the dreaded arctic methane (say x120 the nastiness of CO2 in the first five years) which are land based and beneath shallow water ie under 50m water depth of the East Siberian Iceshelf, as illustrated on any map of the north polar region.

For Arctic ice google Prof Peter Wadhams. http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/

Look also how near un-reported is the loss of diatoms a particular interest of mine, these being the actual originators of 70% of the worlds oil and gas reserves, no-one has ever seen a single diatom with the naked eye yet to my untrained amateur mind the loss of diatoms is directly linked to massive widespread pacific seabird collapse, coral decline and the probable loss of ocean cloud systems and associated generation of DMS and the conversion of or generation of 20% of the worlds oxygen. By diatoms we can also include other marine / water based algae. Plankton is the next level of food chain above algae, both much neglected as a news item for the general public.

We all know as kids how ice melts, we wake up and next morning its all gone.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/07/greenland-melting-second-time-this-summer-bad/

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

 

 

Esquire and links…

The Esquire article holds worthwhile links to get a grip on climate change, it would benefit donald j trump enormously to get a handle on this  ….

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a26077427/trump-tweet-midwest-cold-global-warming/

With warming oceans you can forget abt the marine food chain, lower strata and indispensable diatoms, algae, plankton hardly get mentioned yet are crucial. Its my opinion its diatom collapse that we’ve lost coral reef, its a symbiotic relationship and have yet to find one article stating this case.  Its burning the oil and gas remains of diatoms that has led us to this predicament, ironic in the extreme. A few months ago i posted a ‘make a model of planet Earth’ whereby the usable space ie a mile total on this planet is represented by a one thousandths of an inch cigarette paper moistened onto the surface of a kids eight inch diameter football. Scale one thou inch equals one mile. A lot of the ice is melting from below, as when kids, we are so suprised next day its gone. As Sam Carana tells us its when grain production fails that we will really be in a predicament. Its as if everything we have, nature etc is merely a scummy film ready to be wiped off.

https://wordpress.com/read/feeds/84273524/posts/2153823518

trump is a dickhead of an extreme and dangerous kind, seems theres a word to express his wish to incubate, spread and render viable the worst of ignorance for the common masses i mean those people he cares not one jot for other than poll and voting numbers … the spread of ignorance agnotology.

 

postscript : here a link from the above Esquire article, near total absence of insects and butterflies from Puerto Rican forest as visited by scientific professionals  ie 98% of ground dwelling insects are gonehttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/15/insect-collapse-we-are-destroying-our-life-support-systems

 

 

To discuss Global Warming …

This link below provides a lot of topics for discussion, the primary one being the IPCC falls short of providing the full picture of where we are heading with Climate Change; of falling short of what could be likely reality in the years ahead.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

As I’ve always said (at least from Nov 2017 which was for the first time I switched on to Climate Change) …. the IPCC incorporates large scale carbon capture that has yet to be invented in any serious form and ignores the upcoming effect of methane in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates. Lets enumerate the points and note that I do agree with what Sam Carana has to say which I argue is not bias but reason, the evidence and common sense. When trump as yesterday states that the Climate Change Scientists are being ‘political’ he himself is operating at a totally political and morally unsound position. Every sane thinking person on the planet knows this, the canaries are screaming but trump and his twisted and bitter white old men of the GOP insist otherwise !!!

Let me work through to precis Sams points …

  1.  IPCC has moved the baseline (though I’ve yet to read the IPCC document) …  imagine already how much smelting, burning of coal, steam power had added carbon to the atmosphere already by 1850.
  2. IPCC erroneously applies a straight line projection for whatever lies ahead, in reality its a huge tangle of interconnected self and mutually re-inforcing feedback ever increasing feedback loops. What engineers call positive feedback ie an expotential knock-on and is an upward curve, never conforms to a straight line plot.
  3. IPCC ignores spikes, these causing the really nasty shock effects.
  4. IPCC baseline chosen to wallpaper over the worse view from any other historical baseline.
  5. IPCC playing with the stats.
  6. Anomaly as ocean temperature is at surface and land temp figs as air based figures, this Sam Carana tells us can introduce error.
  7. Method and missing data not embracing latest thinking / developments
  8. IPCC omits temp spikes of 2016 that would have as yet again increased the projected figures and are omitted.
  9. WOW … IPCC does not take into account all the real world happening now events ie snow and ice loss, albedo effect, methanes, last ten year carbon effect, aerosol effect, increased water vapour feedback, jet stream alteration, sea level rise and expansion, green plant CO2 conversion fall off, carbon from wildfires, etc etc. Each single point is so very interconnected and all exacerbate each other.  May I add loss of diatoms and plankton that are major CO2 to O converters as well as being part of ocean weather systems, losing coral reef being a symptom of a the more fundamental crash in ocean food chain, the diatoms. Its time now for a fast tracking approach to science, silly bloody clusters of cagouled junior scientists out on the ice shelf / mass is looking a bit twee; a two year peer review is too slow.
  10. IPCC seems stuck in a time bubble, looking at a carbon ‘budget’ approach when in fact carbon is a massive deficit, a carbon bankruptcy, a bankrupt carbon lifestyle that has to be fundamentally altered (which I doubt we can).
  11. Same old song, IPCC is deficient in abolishing fossil fuels.
  12. Tax or fees needed on polluters. Note the worlds obsession with cheap air travel, polluting gas guzzlers, car based lifestyle (of which I too am some way guilty). In my opinion even electric vehicles are suspect and not as green as we’d like to think.

 

Okay, enumerated rant over. As stated previously, I keep things brief here at this new blog of mine. Human nature being what it is, hubris, the desire for status-objects and lifestyle, recreational air travel, a meat diet … all are near insurmountable obstacles.  There would have to be unwavering catastrophe before affluent western populations realise changes must occur and of course global warming and climate change being what it is ie a cumulative self re-inforcing feedback all change would be too late.

There are three embedded vids at the bottom of Sam Caranas blog, lets listen to the first briefer version of Prof Peter Wadhams wise words (a practical Scientist, a lifelong specialist in sea ice) and pretend not to notice the tedious drawn out intro …

  • IPCC non-alarmist, soft pedalling on feedback machanisms.
  • IPCC pays no attention to potential run-away warming.
  • IPCC by not mentioning a major contributor/s its as if it doesn’t exist !
  • More of the same little sticking plasters or feelgood initiatives are no longer any good.
  • Note that even if we stopped all emmisions ie 100% … its already not sufficient to avert us to catastrophe.
  • World expert on sea ice Prof Wadhams tells us that what the IPCC says on sea ice is ‘daft’. Listen to this crap from the IPCC “An ice free summer once every hundred years”  !!!
  • To approximately quote Prof Wadhams “One would have thought that by now the IPCC would be so embarrassed by its out-dated modelling to have withdrawn that type of approach”. “Pretending the situation isn’t the way it is”.
  • Not a single well-known sea-ice researchers name on the author list from the IPCC.

Lets not forget thawing permafrost and the East Siberian iceshelf.

I’ve thought for years that a condensed print onto paper resume of such talkie vids would save time, get the point across quicker. You can name the app after me …..

It vexes me at the increasing and needless number of ever bigger SUVs and even more expensive cars that my neighbours buy; quite needless as we can hardly assume they are involved in ‘light haulage’! I assume they a) feel they need them and b) are drawn into such a value system. I’ve a neighbour that eats nothing but meat and most others that value a meal at its meat content or its closeness to an oversized burger. Others that thrill at their endless air travel, even a weekend break involves the airport or the insanity of a weekend home a thousand miles away. I’m no angel, far from it but strive to somehow do better, to keep things simple, a lighter carbon footprint and have done for years; at least my work is nearby and I’ve no need to venture more than a few miles.

 

Ward Hunt Ice Shelf.

I’m no genius. I try to include links and hope people revisit the sites over time so as to see whatever is latest. Therefore a link followed from here can update itself and be a regular port of call providing lots of material to mine into. Heres one from the very useful site neven1 that I posted recently and takes us to … a link to material published in 2004 and still certainly is worthwhile reading ie ….. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/wardhunt

I need to try to seek out more of the microbial/ algal activity of the deposits mentioned, but I know fine well such microscopic imagery will hardly exist, so seldom is it shown to the wider public and I don’t know why, are there journalistic filters that are blind or ignorant to this ???  I don’t think David Attenborough has any interest in this either. This baffles and annoys me, yes we can take the sight of a diatom without wretching.

 

diatoms
diatoms anyone can see through a simple microscope.

 

The algal/ protozoan aspect of this fascinates me and looms large in my approach to nature. You can’t see it but it is very important and on a global scale utterly essential for life on this planet. Its a bit like my curiosity for chemtrails, as with algae it is not direct and in your face but it most certainly is important. It must have been mighty difficult or near impossible centuries ago to get people to realise theres important and essential ‘worlds’ all around us that cannot even be seen! I could imagine rustic types tekkin excitedly o de ‘atoms’ theh chessed oot ont fields yisterdeh, lowped ower’t wall, but deyn’t worry, he nos where deh nestin  ….

Heres another updated version first link … https://earthdata.nasa.gov/user-resources/sensing-our-planet/breakup-of-the-ward-hunt-ice-shelf

I can’t help but notice a certain reticence in the second newer article.

 

 

 

 

Climate Change links …

I started this blog half a year ago to bring together pithy to the point links and worthwhile material to try and save time for others. It sort of works as I hoped, visitor numbers are woefully low but if nothing else its been an education for myself and a valuable repository.  I bring you only quality material … ie science / pro contributors. Hint: click these film channels to see more.

 

 

 

Above at 05:20 note that the top ten percent on the planet produce 50% of the CO2 emissions. People knock China for instance (and India) but aren’t we lucky the bicycle was their mode of transport for the ordinary, the masses. And to see an Indian train with hundreds cling to the exterior must surely be max utilisation of motive power.