This link below provides a lot of topics for discussion, the primary one being the IPCC falls short of providing the full picture of where we are heading with Climate Change; of falling short of what could be likely reality in the years ahead.
As I’ve always said (at least from Nov 2017 which was for the first time I switched on to Climate Change) …. the IPCC incorporates large scale carbon capture that has yet to be invented in any serious form and ignores the upcoming effect of methane in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates. Lets enumerate the points and note that I do agree with what Sam Carana has to say which I argue is not bias but reason, the evidence and common sense. When trump as yesterday states that the Climate Change Scientists are being ‘political’ he himself is operating at a totally political and morally unsound position. Every sane thinking person on the planet knows this, the canaries are screaming but trump and his twisted and bitter white old men of the GOP insist otherwise !!!
Let me work through to precis Sams points …
- IPCC has moved the baseline (though I’ve yet to read the IPCC document) … imagine already how much smelting, burning of coal, steam power had added carbon to the atmosphere already by 1850.
- IPCC erroneously applies a straight line projection for whatever lies ahead, in reality its a huge tangle of interconnected self and mutually re-inforcing feedback ever increasing feedback loops. What engineers call positive feedback ie an expotential knock-on and is an upward curve, never conforms to a straight line plot.
- IPCC ignores spikes, these causing the really nasty shock effects.
- IPCC baseline chosen to wallpaper over the worse view from any other historical baseline.
- IPCC playing with the stats.
- Anomaly as ocean temperature is at surface and land temp figs as air based figures, this Sam Carana tells us can introduce error.
- Method and missing data not embracing latest thinking / developments
- IPCC omits temp spikes of 2016 that would have as yet again increased the projected figures and are omitted.
- WOW … IPCC does not take into account all the real world happening now events ie snow and ice loss, albedo effect, methanes, last ten year carbon effect, aerosol effect, increased water vapour feedback, jet stream alteration, sea level rise and expansion, green plant CO2 conversion fall off, carbon from wildfires, etc etc. Each single point is so very interconnected and all exacerbate each other. May I add loss of diatoms and plankton that are major CO2 to O converters as well as being part of ocean weather systems, losing coral reef being a symptom of a the more fundamental crash in ocean food chain, the diatoms. Its time now for a fast tracking approach to science, silly bloody clusters of cagouled junior scientists out on the ice shelf / mass is looking a bit twee; a two year peer review is too slow.
- IPCC seems stuck in a time bubble, looking at a carbon ‘budget’ approach when in fact carbon is a massive deficit, a carbon bankruptcy, a bankrupt carbon lifestyle that has to be fundamentally altered (which I doubt we can).
- Same old song, IPCC is deficient in abolishing fossil fuels.
- Tax or fees needed on polluters. Note the worlds obsession with cheap air travel, polluting gas guzzlers, car based lifestyle (of which I too am some way guilty). In my opinion even electric vehicles are suspect and not as green as we’d like to think.
Okay, enumerated rant over. As stated previously, I keep things brief here at this new blog of mine. Human nature being what it is, hubris, the desire for status-objects and lifestyle, recreational air travel, a meat diet … all are near insurmountable obstacles. There would have to be unwavering catastrophe before affluent western populations realise changes must occur and of course global warming and climate change being what it is ie a cumulative self re-inforcing feedback all change would be too late.
There are three embedded vids at the bottom of Sam Caranas blog, lets listen to the first briefer version of Prof Peter Wadhams wise words (a practical Scientist, a lifelong specialist in sea ice) and pretend not to notice the tedious drawn out intro …
- IPCC non-alarmist, soft pedalling on feedback machanisms.
- IPCC pays no attention to potential run-away warming.
- IPCC by not mentioning a major contributor/s its as if it doesn’t exist !
- More of the same little sticking plasters or feelgood initiatives are no longer any good.
- Note that even if we stopped all emmisions ie 100% … its already not sufficient to avert us to catastrophe.
- World expert on sea ice Prof Wadhams tells us that what the IPCC says on sea ice is ‘daft’. Listen to this crap from the IPCC “An ice free summer once every hundred years” !!!
- To approximately quote Prof Wadhams “One would have thought that by now the IPCC would be so embarrassed by its out-dated modelling to have withdrawn that type of approach”. “Pretending the situation isn’t the way it is”.
- Not a single well-known sea-ice researchers name on the author list from the IPCC.
Lets not forget thawing permafrost and the East Siberian iceshelf.
I’ve thought for years that a condensed print onto paper resume of such talkie vids would save time, get the point across quicker. You can name the app after me …..
It vexes me at the increasing and needless number of ever bigger SUVs and even more expensive cars that my neighbours buy; quite needless as we can hardly assume they are involved in ‘light haulage’! I assume they a) feel they need them and b) are drawn into such a value system. I’ve a neighbour that eats nothing but meat and most others that value a meal at its meat content or its closeness to an oversized burger. Others that thrill at their endless air travel, even a weekend break involves the airport or the insanity of a weekend home a thousand miles away. I’m no angel, far from it but strive to somehow do better, to keep things simple, a lighter carbon footprint and have done for years; at least my work is nearby and I’ve no need to venture more than a few miles.