I am baffled …

I had held YaleClimateConnections as worthwhile and a valid source for climate change info, not that I’m much of an avid watcher of these things, I’ve a life to lead and have gleaned full well where we are heading. When will the penny drop that ppl have not the time for presentations of say fifteen minutes, youtube has many other items that need to be scanned as quickly as possible, an attached precis in document form would be mighty handy.  But this mornings visit has me baffled. For instance at 02:40 we are told “by 2100” (a misnomer in itself) that I quote loosely …  “Permafrost carbon feedback by 2100 ‘is’ smaller, much smaller than human fossil fuel emissions” … EH ! ? “Its about ten percent of that” …. CRIKEY. Sorry, invert your arguament then factor in a move of the decimal point.

I find this misinformation and crap hard to stomach. Methinks there is skewed thinking, Orwellian newspeak in action; its called trump, the EPA putting the screws on. Maybe shrouded as a general balm to quell any mass hysteria? IPCC is not much better, its most recent foray into ‘forecasting’ I think I’m right in saying deliberately did not include material contributed by Prof Peter Wadhams the worlds expert on Arctic ice and forgot to factor in Arctic methane !!!

Earlier the first nugget of wisdom in this pointless misinformation from Yale is of the plant life re-colonising and will transform some areas of thawing permafrost / methane release to a nett uptake ie 00:50 and onto 01:00 ! Blimey … now that is real optimism gone crazy. Sorry but even a child would say a thin layer of green encroachment is far outnumbered by the dirty soup of thawing permafrost that in itself provides physical depth and bulk, coupled with and absence of oxygen to generate the dreaded methane that is 80-120 times he potency of the already dreaded CO2. Short term potency is all we need consider, human life will not be here to see it extend to the medium term. Remember too that with increasing CO2 and methane green growing things actually back down and go into reverse in their much needed conversion. Already diatom / algal populations and conversion are going into reverse, also diatom / bryozoan symbiosis on coral reef needs explaining clearly, not just the glib ‘bleaching’. Yesterday even, reading of the tiny numbers of remaining Right Whale and the loss of their principal food no mention is made that it is the loss of lower food chain, again diatoms/ algae that will probably be at the root of this problem.

Maybe I should have been a scientist, I hope I could get at the truth better than this.

 

Theres nothing in this presentation / vid that i can let go unchallenged, its back to back misinformation and nonsense, its endless and what is most alarming is that its issued June 2019!

“The abrupt thaw could represent about a half of the total permafrost climate feedback” at 02:50 …  in my opinion try 1,000 % plus.

“If we can slow down human carbon emissions” … no its all set in motion, nice optimism, but interconnected feedback loops and the workings of nature are so very stacked against us ie 03:25

“Hit our economy” …. yes indeed!

This is like something made by twelve year olds.

 

 

postscript … note the term ‘restricted grammar and limited vocabulary’ … reminds one of the Idiot in Chief presently occupying (sometimes) the Oval Office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspeak

One could say quite fairly that in this fag paper thin layer that we inhabit viewing the world as a childs football (ie 0.001in on an eight inch sphere) … drilling and capturing mostly the oil and gas from ancient diatoms that has upset the equilibrium which first allowed humankind to thrive and therefore latterly upset the amazing and horrifying multiplicity of feedback loops have now been forced to realign to the newly introduced contaminants and effluent that now trigger the chemical formula and physical  laws that are quite unstoppable.

trumps refusal and crowbar silencing (as with YaleClimateConnections above) are far worse than any war crime and he should be tried as such. Whilst we’ve got people in the dock maybe Carl Benz, Rudolf Diesel and Henry Ford are to be answerable. Strange but true.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I fear for and of Greenland …

Any google search for  ‘Greenland ice melt latest’  brings nothing but a picture of accelerated melting, which we knew fine well would happen and the much bandied around ‘by year 2100’ was just a load of baloney.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html

https://www.sciencealert.com/greenland-was-40-degrees-hotter-than-normal-this-week-and-things-are-getting-intense

https://scied.ucar.edu/longcontent/greenlands-ice-melting-faster

 

Permafrost is one quarter of northen hemisphere landmass.

Just read the fact that a quarter of all northern hemisphere land mass is permafrost over at National Geographic; this is quite staggering really.

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/environment/2018/08/exclusive-some-arctic-ground-no-longer-freezing-even-winter

Thinking aloud … if we factor in the permafrost that lies beneath shallow seas ie the East Siberian ice-shelf then I assume the at present mostly frozen but rapidly thawing methane hydrate and impending microbial activity might well account for half land mass in the northern hemisphere that is likely to massively overtake man made contributions to rising CO2?

Our slick western values and means of doing things seems that we live in our own self-aggrandised bubble, think trump at its extreme. For years I’ve never been easy with the constant hop on idea of air travel, thirty years since I’ve flown. Why do you need a second home in another country, another continent? The gravity of what is to unfold cannot justify selfish long distance vehicular travel in any form.

Likewise all my washing of clothes is by hand in a bucket and drip dry on a washing line. Depths of winter will not be so easy but since Feb ie north east England quite do-able, I actually enjoy the process. The extra time it takes costs zero as opposed to the electricity needed and factored cost of depreciation/ replacement etc of the washing machine and people say my shirts, my towels look so clean! Maybe with constantly thinking technology and cleverer washing machines are always ‘better’ we have long forgotten what the original basic approach can achieve. Think also the obsession with ipads, iphones, connectivity, I have little or nothing of those things (detest the idea of 5G) and I think pen and paper are still worthwhile particularly if you wish to learn and memorise. I cut up old Bonio boxes and dog feed cartons and these are admirable carry-in-your-pocket crib sheets.

I’m happy I’ve halved my car miles, older, have explored my county sufficiently, have a rich ‘capital of happiness’ to draw from. Ten miles radius provides all I need, twenty miles would be a special outing!

Green up – carbon down!

 

 

 

The sadness of Polar Bears …

Harrowing and a topic I have somehow declined to read about to any extent. But heres a digestible account and worthwhile to realise how so screwed up we really are and this is merely the beginning …

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/02/polar-bears-starve-melting-sea-ice-global-warming-study-beaufort-sea-environment/

Global warming …

This link is usually my first port of call for Arctic warming,  a highly qualified professional well worth reading. He knows all the active professionals / scientists and is certainly their equal, this is acknowledged. He says what he thinks, he no longer has any academic position / daytime job to fear losing.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/an-infinite-scream-passing-through-nature.html

Northern Canada: +22C when it should be zero.

Yikes, ultra creepy temp increase  … anything that says by 2100 Greenland Ice Massif will be gone … more like 2026 I’d say. This end of 2026 point in time is when i would think we are somewhere at a minimum of  3 to 4C global warming, you can wave goodbye to anything like a piddling 2C prediction … quite laughable sticking to 2C considering the interconnectedness of natures climate systems and feedback loops. If I’m not correct then I will donate £1k GBP to charities, no quibble.  Remember, the accelerating nature of ice melt is working against us, any child knows wake up next morning and it can often be an exasperating sight to see all the ice and snow mostly gone overnight as often happens here in northern England. Realise too that with increased ice-melt the freshwater adds to increasing humidity and rainfall. Therefore no albedo effect ie the reflective nature of a white landscape is lost and ad infinitum heat absorbancy spirals way beyond most publicly available predictions. Permafrost becomes mush, methane tumbles upwards from microbial, geological and thawing hydrate; better sort some space for all the oxygen cylinders we will need.

And then what ?

 

Heres a pic of what its like up there in NWT … https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/mackenzie-valley-winter-road-closed-1.5064202

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/truck-plunges-deline-ice-road-1.3477869

 

Postscript; thinking of ice loss, not even the term logarithmic in relationship to volume decay is applicable when the temperature is rapidly increasing as in the North West Territories cited above, any ‘steady state’ conformity to plotting arithmetic curves or laws of decay goes out the window or into the newly formed lake. Again, thinking of childhood observation of a quick thaw here in temperate England, all the melt seemed to merely sink into the earth itself which in a permafrost situation up north is the last thing we need. So therefore in my mind most ‘predictions’ are invalid, unreal because thawing ice behaves in its own unique way. Its back to what I fear by 2026.

At least i’m doing ‘something’ even if its quite by chance or the new circumstances of my wife passing away three years ago which has enabled me to do things differently, ie much reduced mileage in the car as I’m happier being nearer to home (I’m the ideal profile for an electric vehicle) …  washing machine bust and won’t be replaced, plastic bucket and a clothes line do all i want as theres no real dirt or grime to remove. Keeping the computer switched off most hours also helps in several ways, use books more, increase pleasure in sketching, copying, taking notes, memorise things … we don’t always need to be up on the latest news online, theres much human knowledge that is as good now as it was forty or a hundred years ago. I’ve no tv through choice and this suits me, bbc r3 and 4 provide sufficient, no mobile either and I’ve uninstalled the wireless remote heating thermostat. The only modern luxury I wish to retain is my central heating system and the pleasure of a hot bath !

Spinning and tumbling clothes dry here in England can be severely cut back and perhaps eliminated in many households, the washing line does all these things; particularly as these last few years we seldom have the rainfall here in NE England that we used to have.

Climate change discussion.

Just found this … https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

… its in nature.com so it has validity.

With the temp rise, the loss of diatoms and the loss of coral (erroneously in my opinion termed ‘bleaching) the bryozoans fail, die because the microscopic partners have gone. Therefore to paraphrase trump … “Who would have known invisible things could be so complicated” … yup!

I got the link above from arctic-news … makes for the grimmest reading, but I’m glad its there. As I’ve learnt and repeated for the life of this blog the past year it is the sledge hammer threat from the thawing subsea methane that will stop the pendulum of life. Its a fact, its elementary observation and realisation, things as yet hardly seen that we cannot get politicians or the IPCC to take heed; the latter as generally acknowledged by climate-savvy scientists to be a report twenty years behind; witness the fact that the IPCC does not even recognise or factor in the importance of arctic methane release which in fact will be the death of us all.

Yet can we get ‘the man in the street’ to ponder on these things, to think a little bit more ???

Go back to my post half a year ago ‘making a model of planet Earth’ we are in fact a habitable zone of a wet cigarette paper placed on a childs 8inch football. Thats all we have and so hence our habitable layer is ultra sensitive to change, is staggeringly interconnected in all climate systems, jet stream, oceanic waterflow, gulf stream, accelerated melting of Greenland ad infinitum …  never mind the fun down in the Antarctic.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/01/global-extinction-within-18-34-months.html

Please note I always have my radar turned on for either plain simple crackpot sites or sites designed to mislead or render a subject as ‘nuts’ ie misinformation. Beware that general media can be ‘loaded’ in this respect. My own beef being bbc radio news r4 being so un-crtical of trump and their choice of words actually sounding to support him or serve him up in the best light. That is what I think is the value of my blog, quality material.

postscript …. we may as well have the video from the latest arctic-news, it makes a valuable contribution.

 

Its just hit me, this year I cannot recall seeing the little hoverflies that used to be so prevalant at my local nature reserve the ‘pit heap’.

In five years time will I be able to see any honeybees, any pied flycatchers here in the UK ?? … I think the answer will be negative.