I’ve lain fallow on this for a few weeks following the damp squib of a wasted COP26 Glasgow, to let the dust settle so to speak, to reflect. The IPCC should hang their heads in shame.
The four years of a trump vested interest and an ‘in reverse’ shambles of what could only laughingly be called an ‘administration’ (note I deny him upper case) has not helped this planet or its peoples in any way whatsoever unless of course you are already an exceedingly rich US billionaire; lets face it millions are small change these days….
But trump is not a billionaire, no matter how crooked his schemes and evasions it has still left him hanging on propped up by debt from lenders of near last resort.
I worry about the Yemen, the inexcusable shambles of a deliberately callous Afghanistan withdrawl etc etc
In all this blog of say six hundred posts I reckon my sources are of good quality, will stand to scrutiny and illuminate and educate. Brave people, particularly in the USA, they face demotion or dismissal for speaking like this.
Heres two for climate change …
Note in the above from Dr Guy Macpherson his concern at the big hit from ozone depletion at 02:45 from rising sea level and hence the loss and destruction of nuclear generation (ie meltdown) and hence near instant ozone loss rendering the ‘out of doors’ uninhabitable. Its a chilling quote “The living will envy the dead” at 03:28. My own hobby horse is diatoms and the oceanic plankton that scrub half of the worlds carbon for us for free, all are near or are actually microscopic; trees and land based CO2 conversion will fail us I’m sure and unfortunately the plankton too. We’ve played with a world size chemistry set and it all appears inevitable. I found the link for the above on …. https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/
Here below is disturbing footage, note the blackened ice, note how beavers are colonising further north and flood the land / permafrost with their dams, the catastrophic opening of Arctic ocean seaways with accompanying noise pollution destroying marine mammal habitat and their ability to communicate and organise.
This bugs me, for the first time ever I can hang out towels at 11pm just short of them dripping with a hand wring from a wash in my downstairs loo sink as per my usual routine (being sans washing machine at this location) and bingo next morning they are dry. This may be usual in say the Caribbean but is not the norm for the north east of England in mid November!
The year end of 2026 is the line in the sand I chose for what is tolerable and what is as mentioned to friend Gary the point at which I presume conditions may well become difficult indeed. COP26 has been an utter failure, who the hell handpicks these numskulls? Pundit Beckwith over on youtube includes footage and dreary as his presentations as ever are they do illustrate some very misleading presentations at COP26. Footnote: Paul, please try and assimilate NT manner and humour…. your fifteen minute vids are hell to get through.
COP26 seems to have utterly disregarded interconnected amplifying feedbacks and their importance, their many-fold increase over anything linear, ‘linear’ being the darling of COP26 and the emasculated head in the sand IPCC and the curse of NOT being able to get a grip on what really is happening.
COP26 is a failure, worse than I feared it would be.
Where are the scientists, where are the new ideas, the latest data, feedback projections?
It has dumbed down even below what a weak and blind IPCC could have stage managed.
I predicted a huge backlash to mans intransigence and eternal hubris and boy o boy theres going to be some very angry people, and in many senses rightly so.
Its my opinion the UK Government is delighted we are entering rapid and gross inflation, it will massage downwards the huge spend from Rishi, much of the money being quite un-needed, £10k lump sums to small businesses that didn’t need it and a furlough scheme that I reckon has been much abused and which continued for far too long. Covid is still out there but in many instances its a case of “Covid – what covid?”
I’m not impressed on the performance of bbc radio news on getting detail out on what really matters as we move forward to an unstoppable oven of catastrophe, this will make any war look as a minor scale dummy run.
We hardly hear of the feedback effect of multiple systems all catastrophically amplifying each others effect and eventually the collapse of one another, like a house of cards, in essence negating or destroying each single systems ability to survive; lets throw a few probable eventualities around…
diatoms and plankton will die, are in fact dieing, therefore half of the world CO2 to O collapses. Who mentions this?
the ability of land based green growing things decreases CO2 conversion as CO2 itself increases, never mind methane.
aerosol masking multiplier.
ice gone, particularly the importance of vertical melt.
fact: jet stream now in two parts, dragging warm wet air over the Arctic.
fact: sunspot max for 2026 and transition from El Nana to El Nino coincides!
weather systems will waver and abandon the worlds conventional food production areas.
meat production (burgers?) needs to be drastically curtailed / minimised.
live near to your work.
does anyone consider pollution from commercial sources, diesel fuelled agriculture, construction and the military?
if we are for a fact losing/ have lost insect populations, hence we are losing small songbirds then what if we lose earthworms … that would be catastrophe.
if the oceans are warmer and of greater bulk what of tectonic plate shift?
existing wind and solar depends on established conventional weather patterns, not weather in flux.
we need a one child policy.
Nero himself would be aghast as how we are holding our nerve and blind to what is happening, fiddling with inconsequentials when the big things need to be addressed. The tree problem for instance, unless its evergreen ie the conifer then here in northern latitudes we have a thing called autumn leaf fall, likewise most green growing things, for half the year are near to dormant. The tree thing is difficult in the UK, already near all land is used as is most appropriate, theres not much slack.
Still thinking trees, we only have land surface to play with and most of that being unsuitable, yet six sevenths of the worlds surface is water, therefore in my opinion a solution must be water based / oceanic.
Heres an idea, rather than carbon offset which is in itself an often dubious mechanism we could have death offset, pay poor brown people to die instead of ourselves … mighty quicker than a one child policy! Whoops, gallows humour.
Timescale? I just read stuff (preferably by scientists) … year 2026 will I fear be a much different place than where we are now, see the above bullet point list, year 2030 may well have seen homo sapiens much compromised if not near extinct.
note in the above further down the page mention of ‘hole in sea ice in Laptev Sea 2010’,
The Laptev Sea will become famous for its shallowness and store of methane hydrate now set into melt mode. One could spend day upon day compiling this information, I only hope readers delve further than what at preseent at least at this address appears google presenting an obstacle at seeking out the latest scientific opinion, if it was fashion or burgers or stupid social networking it would be presenting me with a myriad of connections.
I abhor groups and crowds at the best of times buts let remember theres going to be one heck of a covid spike after scenes such as this slow moving jumble of people. How horrifying to be trapped in such a manner.
Covid virus is so small two hundred of the virus will fit side by side in one thousandth of an inch … this equates to four hundred virus side by side across the thickness of a human hair ie 0.002in. Lab workers, biochemists etc know fine well as how dastardly small virus can be and how difficult therefore to work with.
Masks may hinder breath projection which is all to the good but I doubt have much effect at scrubbing inward breath, distance is crucial, as is hand washing and minimising cross contamination, imagine its a powerful red dye that sticks to surfaces, keep off!
It is our daily 365 lives that signal our true carbon footprint, at the moment I’ve got my annualised electricity for my house at 86p a day, at the old tariff I wonder if I can get that to below 80p? Now I just need to work on the gas. We mustn’t lose sight that we still need to be productive in our work and business, unless of course our lives are propelled into a new and topsy turvy world of extinct businesses, shortages and limitations.
I fear for the poor, already in the UK Boris and rich kid Rishi are doing their best to knock the poor back, blind to the hardship they are creating with stopping a measley £20 note, this in practical reality anything BUT the handy feelgood ‘levelling up’ as promised. A lot of of what we hear from number ten is mere feelgood mantra, a slogan, a handy peg to hang an air thin promise upon, a soundbite and little else. Look at the decade and more of defunding of the NHS, ditto Education. Boris ‘acts the part’ but is no politician of any great ability, he does not respect Parliament quite obviously and from my observation has no perceptible knowledge or desire to take us to a better place.
I have no fear of the future, its as if we ourselves are a vast experiment viewed from some distant planet so to speak; our journey of exploration and discovery has spanned a hundred thousand years of stone tools to agriculture, to towns and cities, religion, electricity, the electron, things digital etc. I really don’t know if its at all possible to ‘get out of this jam’.
But also I can’t help but feel what a pity we invented the internal combustion engine! knowledge or desire
At least as a species we’ll not go down without an effort.
The more I think about all this the more I get bugged … Mans intransigence and utmost stupidity, trumps one trillion to the already super-wealthy, the craving for the latest bigger and bigger SUV, the multi home and multi car lifestyle. And sadly academics and scientists at least so far to this point having to keep shtum re the real situation, otherwise you get fired, side-lined, demoted, transferred to other duties; the USA particularly endemic of this so very non-scientific manner of managing things.
Lets drag a few other points, elaborate and often wasteful food consumption ….. just look at the problem of obesity. The need for a foreign holiday. The nonsense of countries saying “Look at our reduced carbon footprint” when in fact most our of goods are made in China, shipped across the world and the West has the audacity to accuse Chine of carbon footprint! Lets remember until recent times all through the C20 the near universal personal mode of transport in China was the bicycle.
Meat being dumped, does this figure in the news, the actual amount of meat taken back off supermarket shelves as out of date, I’ve witnessed this late in the evening as standard supermarket practice, is there data on this, is it fully recognised? I think I’ve had merely half a dozen traditional Sunday dinners in thirty years and now cooking my own food even regrettably being a meat eater I can pad out any casserole or stew with lots of veg, herbs and spices, particularly so far with tricks from India and Pakistan, hint … incorporate punchpooran, a five seed mix that to my mind eliminates the need for salt or meat to any great extent.
In my opinion a one child policy is essential.
1.5 degrees is now a nonsense, its obscene to think this is still a valid number, likewise 2050 ….
Anything style ‘2050’ is utter nonsense, we haven’t got the time, I doubt we’ll be here. Likewise I doubt if the vast majority of humans will be here by 2035. I wonder how diluted will be the reports planned for the first day at COP26, I’d like to think there will be a few suprises, maybe scientists will come forward and ‘grow a pair’ so to speak.
This morning I read of the tragic and gross scouring of the sea bed by deep trawling, surely this should have been stopped years ago?
Interestingly its only been this week I’ve encountered the term ‘vertical melt’ … this is exactly what I’ve been railing about all the time I’ve blogged here, ie three / four years. As all kids know, the extent of snow and ice can still appear as it has been first arrived but only at closer observation can we see that in fact its the thickness that much reduces every day until suddenly one morning we wake up and our sledging and fun in the snow has completely gone. That, is the nature of snow and ice.
Link below for a high quality overview of climate change….
The IPCC is an organisation I am very sceptical of, the experts are ‘hand-sorted’ so to speak which as we know with the lamentable omission of Prof Peter Wadhams in their last big science-fest a few years ago and so by not publishing his work (the considerations of a world ranking Arctic ice expert) … this means mostly the IPCC can only offer a sanitised and diluted version of what could actually happen to us all.
Heres a case in point of the IPCC not liking the extent of what could occur in the next few years re climate change and how they throw out of the window any modelling that scares or offends them, its bad science, selective science of the worst sort, be sure to look at the chart …
It must be remembered that if we model climate on a childs eight inch football the portion that we inhabit ie half a mile up and half a mile down equates to the thickness of a cigarette paper, one thousandths of an inch which is half the thickness of a human hair… FACT.
This means the chemistry set known as our worldwide climate systems are easily jarred and reactive to new ingredients ie temperature, ocean flow, atmospheric modifications, jet stream modification, ice loss, methane eruption, carbon particles ie dust, the loss of algal activity in the oceans, changing weather patterns over whole continents, etc etc.
In other words ‘crazy cussed stuff’ … such as drought where we don’t want it (lets say Americas grainbelt or Chinas rice bowl) and rain where it should not be for example in the Gobi Desert or the Himalayas (just guessing). Today we hear in the news that California is losing its electricity supply, upstream theres not enough water to power the hydro-electric generators.
Therefore in the above link which exposes the IPCC dislike of what could happen andrefusal to accept modelling for a more catastrophic future than they are prepared to admit, I personally go with Sam Carana and fear the temperature rise will be greater than any contemplated by the IPCC, we are being spoon fed only what is deemed digestible by certain experts and vested interest.
What is fundamental to all this forecasting and modelling is that EVERYTHING seems somehow to be involved in a myriad of self reinforcing feedback loops. For instance today we hear on the news that Siberian fires are releasing carbon particles right up into the North Pole, this was easily seen on NASA Worldview a few days ago. Therefore the ice becomes darker, absorbs heat quicker and … BINGO melts faster from above, never mind the warmer water attacking from beneath. It will be near an instantaneous event when all ice ‘flashes’ from the Arctic, an event of probably weeks, months but not decades.
We have to fight, we cannot go down without a fight, but will it do any good? Not really.
It saddens me that hubris, name it what you will, will never un-mend peoples needs for vehicles of any sort which always one way or another carry huge carbon costs in manufacture and huge problems of disposal.
We need to live near our work, to walk there or maybe an electric or hydrogen trolleybus.
We need a one child policy everywhere. And applaud those with no children.
Car ownership of any sort needs to be a rarer thing.
Vastly reduce the American style burger culture.
Much reduce airflight for personal and even business need.
Minimise food waste, ie see your supermarket near closing, trolleyfulls of meat for disposal!
Only eat what you need.
Look at the footprint for concrete as a building material.
Look at the longevity of wind production, not so green.
etc etc name anything you like, there will be a downside to it!
If we lived ‘biblically’ simple farmers and traders and craftspeople I’m sure we would not be in this mess.
Will any of the above bullet points help us all … not really.
From very little these last few months lately they are becoming more easily seen ie what can be construed as chemtrail. This blog here of mine has lots of chemtrail diary and photographs for the previous two or three years. Google searches indicate i am the UKs most prolific blogger on these things, maybe thats why theres little for me to photograph or record this last half year.
Many if not most people will not acknowledge the chemtrail phenomena, but ask any Californian, they get lots, likewise from NASA Worldview places to look are English Channel, Irish Sea, Isle of Man and Cumbria, also North Sea, Dogger Bank. Biscay used to get lots and into central France, not much seen lately if NASA Worldview is anything to go by, a very incomplete data source as to the ‘one-shot’ timing of the picture we are presented. I somehow need high def realtime satellite imagery …. how do i obtain this? Ideas anyone?
Yesterday Friday 23rd July 2021 here NE England in the sky above visible from early and until past sunset in the far western horizon, what i assume to be the west UK flight corridor.
Using my DQA system of a couple of years ago i rate as…
Duration = all day ie 10/10.
Quantity= moderate ie 3/10.
Affect= no dark ‘reaction clouds’ merely a spreading haze or whitening of the sky ie 3/10 only.
Therefore my DQA for yesterday Fri 23rd July 2021 is 10, 3, 3.
Q. Why are these lines in the sky not fading quickly, why so persistent, why widen out to form a much wider definite ‘band’ in the sky, they stay there for hours?
Why some days and not others?
Why sometimes in a repeated flight path, a corridor, a predictability for any one day?
Its my opinion ‘whitening of the skies’ will become much more mainstream, be introduced as such as a necessary step to counter climate change ( I’m guessing at forthcoming COP Glasgow). We know its all futile, there are so many grim interconnected feedback loops, its as if we are having to re-write the book of planetary weather systems, ie DMS (algae), methane, sulfate, ocean circulation systems, the loss of ocean oxygenators known as algae, etc etc. Yesterday I suddenly thought …. “What if our sewage treatment filter bed systems where we use live algae and plankton collapsed due to extreme heat, could this occur? Just about everything else is, its a joke of mine we just about have everything happening other than aliens! So far people just do not seem to be making the adjustments necessary.
Lines in the sky diary Monday 26th 2021, plenty to see in the evening, say six or eight at any tine, including a criss cross example. I hadn’t time to keep looking up at the sky, work indoors kept me busy, so if we just count what was actually observed my DQA sytem rates it as 3,3,2. ie 3/10 duration, 3/10 quantity, 2/10 affect.
Next day Tues 26th July again tasks indoors keep me busy but also the sky itself is obscured, cloudy. However NASA Worldview shows what I from experience see as an altered ie chemtrail sky off the coast here in north east England. ie https://go.nasa.gov/3ye1BXW
Note above it is the ‘french grey’ colouring that is chemtrail, half of what you see above, the main solid lighter cloud presence in my opinion is natural. Click on the link and click to enlarge, this backs up my suspicion. Also, click the different layers and look at northern France ie Brittany.
This is indeed something the IPCC (ie a worldwide ‘formal’ association and so-called working group of bods pertinent to governments, policy, forecasting and climate change) which in reality lags way behind in vision and of forecasting the dreaded consequences of global warming.
So many crashes and disasters seem so under-reported and under-recognised, for instance to name just a few topics …. the Arctic, jet stream, diatoms, algae, plankton, marine food chain, loss of seabirds, loss of salmon, loss of bees, flying insects, decreasing soil health and microbial activity, methane, importance of ocean algae for DMS and oceanic weather systems, even the decline of the beloved wasp!
In my own garden and at a nature reserve I have visited near daily for decades I’m sure theres less bees and flying insects, hoverflies, Vanessids etc. At the rear of this house two out of three birdboxes have been taken over by bees these last couple of years, my ‘unusual’ garden providing lots of flowering plants and shrubs for them, all intentional. Say March to July I’m actually not in the further reaches of my back garden as I want nesting birds and fledglings to feel undisturbed, apart of course from the dreaded hawk that even last night whizzed past my head and I think had caused problems for the blackbirds, a single adult blackbird clucking the alarm call for more than twenty minutes, I’m guessing as much distress as warning to others. I even a few years ago witnessed a queen fly her flightless workers into the birdbox one by one, carried ‘piggy-back’ from the shrubbery and vegetation at the far edge of the lawn, a sight I’ll never forget. She must have brought them in by stages, grouped for the final hurdle into the birdbox. So that is no problem, I’ll stick another couple of birdboxes up soon, made by me of thicker heavier section wood than anything one can usually buy.
The IPCC seems slow and stagnant on everything. From my viewpoint as merely an interested layman I don’t think there is anything that the IPCC is not woefully slow or blind to at present nor cognisant of the fast happening realtime changes, Governmental deficiencies and their consequences. For instance its near impossible to find mention online of the diatom/ bryozoan symbiosis that constitutes a living coral reef, all we ever hear is ‘coral whitening’ but no practical explanations for the ‘mechanics’ for this to occur, why the bryozoans have perished. To my mind the great IPCC sticking point and the professionals that comprise its panels and working groups is the spectre of potentially losing ‘funding’ for speaking out or being avoided and shut out by colleagues. From what I’ve read the IPCC also seems unable to realise the importance of the interconnectedness of feedback loops, Sam Carana mentions this regularly. An example, increased CO2 triggers plants to reduce conversion of CO2 to O …. and their pollen becomes less nuitritional / of value to bees and insects and I think I’m right in saying there is a decrease in nuitritional of green plant food material to humans and animals as a food source. Happy days!
This is from the above link, if this doesn’t grab attention and motivate then nothing will.
Heres a vid below I’m adding a day later, my heart goes out to all the people and animals and whatever that are stuck with these horribly high temperatures. With the attendant drought we wonder if west coast living might become a thing of the past. We can assume as summer rolls on wildfire will set new records, setting more ash and soot onto the surface of arctic ice and melting it even quicker, the big time bomb (of many) in my mind will be when we lose most of the ice as presently visible by satellite, ice extent is still quite considerable but it is thickness that is rapidly decreasing, ie multi-year ice is fast diminishing.
You have to realise thinning can occur from underside as well as from the top. The former I’m guessing will be the downfall of the Antarctic ice shelves as they are levered away from the parent body, its a different set-up down south so to speak.
The action is in the Arctic as we read in the above, the highest and lowest extremes in Siberia at one same location has now set new records and sat imagery shows the depletion and the near non-existance of multi-year ice. You can add my tears to the ever increasing sea level.
Arctic News (arctic-news.blogspot.com) is also a valuable read. Locations such as the shallow Laptev Sea are forever burnt into my mind. I’ve a £1k wager with friend Gary who is a little sceptical of the severity of my forecast that if we have not reached 3deg C or above by end of 2026 then I will hand him £1k cash, no quibble. I don’t want it to be so but we must all realise the severity of what is happening with multiple feedback loops, all self and mutually reinforcing to greater and higher levels, its a lethal chemistry set we should never have set in motion, as if all the ingredients are present and its one big joke to see how we exploit, extract and set in motion the inevitable. If only we could have lived as in a Biblical simplicity.
There are so many factors and components and values feeding into the active equation that is planetary science, remember our space on this spinning ball of eight inches diameter scales at one thousandth of an inch ie 0.001in equivilant to a cigarette paper licked and placed on a childs eight inch toy ball.
There is nothing we do re carbon emission that will take any effect inside of a decade, the latest scares and truths in fact are many, loss of the aerosol masking effect, arctic methane, loss of high altitude cloud cover, and my own pet hobby horse of (near never reported) of the loss of the oceanic plankton particularly diatoms, quite ironic as it is ancient diatoms that form the basis for 70% of the worlds oil and gas supplies.
Arch clown, otherwise now realised to be a ‘stand-up president’ as in comedian namely trump should be tried at The Hague for his four year climate denial, this is a crime against humanity, four valuable years lost.
What would help is a universal one child policy, a move from the American burger culture, to live close to work and abandon your car in whatever form it takes petrol or electric, none of them are particularly green. Everything starts and rests with the individual, I deliberately have hand washed my laundry for the last couple of years, its no problem to me as luckily I have a clean job, here in north east England works fine, a quick wring and the washing line does the rest, none of the endless tumbling and spinning of the electrical machine.
Theres approx five hundred posts on this paid for blog, please explore.
trumps performance at Davos as everywhere he goes is repugnant to any caring, free thinking sensible citizen, in the last couple of days all we hear is trump carnage and apparent ineptitude, but however the gold plated turd does in fact seem to have some ie a little energy and momentary focus, witness the removal of wetland protection and environmental safeguards for water quality … like that runny clear thing that is the cornerstone to a families establishment and a communities survival.
Destruction and the lowest common denominator is the trump byword, nothing good comes from trump. He is a showman, a fairground barker, a Father Coglan; trump mobilises hate. trump has no real ethical talent, he just knows that de-stabilising the sludge at the bottom of the barrel might just keep him in Office.
I particularly am horrified at trumps absolute refusal to take notice of the natural world (ie that thing outside the window that makes the clouds roll by) … of climate and how quickly unfriendly feedbacks are cascading into a most horrible scenario.
It beggars belief the White House has sunk so low, the web / social media aiding his prospects enormously.
I think the above image ie NY Times doesn’t quite help us realise that it is running water that is under threat, that people and communities DOWNSTREAM expect better and deserve better than in the days of old.
When a seasoned, experienced no frills highly regarded Scientist (and many like him) use the term ‘existential impasse’ and stresses the absolute need for real world CO2 draw-down and which entails developing the technique and then implementing practical solutions with apparatus (huge apparatus) on a multi-scale Manhattan Project style venture around the globe and that these things we know are not happening in any forseeable large scale venture, then we know our days as a species are numbered. At least of those that are of ordinary means and not of obscene and excessive wealth who for a time will be able to bypass the inevitable (I’m thinking methane release, East Siberian Ice Shelf). Remember trees are no good, once increased CO2 hits as well as the methane the trees will shrink from the task, a question of timescale too, but never mind, pretend, its good for planetary sanity.
Look at the multi lane freeways, look at the adoration of huge personal vehicles, dinosaurs on wheels, can anyone detect a lessening of this fixation? No, men still want their big toys and outward success still has the same talismans to display. Of consumption, red meat, food waste, far too many airflights merely for leisure, diesels idling needlessly whilst the other person shops, everything spun and tumble-dried when the washing line used to suffice, food flown in from across the world, excessive lighting when not needed, the American burger culture, hubris and ego. No wonder we are struggling as a species and throwing all the others into jeopardy.
This year theres no short-eared owls to be seen here in NE UK, therefore we can assume vole populations are down (their food chain also) and how is the earthworm faring as chemtrail aluminium wreaks whatever destruction is unseen by most people. Already we know insect populations are much reduced hence songbird food sources are much scarcer, bees are critical, its supposedly dementia, again another nano-particle aluminium tie-in. By the time we get it as confirmed peer-reviewed scientific findings it will all be too late.
And heres a little idea of mine, living and spending much time so close to agricultural land, the landscape, a century ago stone walls were much commoner, we even had ‘hemels’ dotted around the agricultural landscape here in the North of England, ideal habitat / housing for small mammals and nesting sites. These days the vogue is for wire fencing and often with wildlife margins allowed, but its nothing near like the value of a stone wall, or winter protection for sheep for instance. Another example of how ‘we’ are trying so hard to be clever but absolutely missing the point. No-one observes, no-one evaluates, no critical thinking, what at one time would be termed the umbrella term COMMON SENSE.
I’m using a Mark Gertler painting below as what I perceive as the Merry-go-round of consumption, they all look hell bent on enjoying themselves, noisy and blind. The year 1916 and how very observant of Mark.