The title says it all, just about the last thing we need is the accumulation of carbon particles on Arctic ice with its increased absorption and hence melting all the quicker, as goes for a myriad of other interconnected feedback loops ie impending methane in its three forms, permafrost thawing, jet stream alteration (now very much in change) and Greenland ice loss, the demise of algae and plankton, bees and insects in decline, none of those things we need right now.
We have upset this chemistry set called planet Earth with its fag paper thin inhabitable zone as if a one thou cigarette paper clinging to a child eight inch diameter football as demonstrated by simple arithmetic.
Its not very well put actually, Prof Peter Wadhams does okay in his own style but the other two particularly Mark seem not too good with words, I’d have expected greater eloquence, must be hell to get a lecture from them, or maybe I should have been a lecturer myself.
Good to hear criticism of the IPCC, they have a powerful voice and grip on humankinds response to this climate catastrophe and impending mass extinction event.
It rambles and rumbles along, but I cannot share the enthusiasm at the loss of Stuart Scott the previous frontman for this, I always thought he was too much the lightweight, not much presence, too light a touch on the subject to get anyone to notice, too quiet a speaker. Maybe we need more of the Brian Blessed to get these discussions noticed!
Never mind, Mr Grumpy here, no harm intended, it starts very elementary and luckily gets better, salient points are mankinds inability with non-linear change and a hypothetical question at 28:00 that if we fast tracked solar generation into a five year period as how this would help or solve the matter of human extinction. Answer is ‘not really’ … all the changes are now ‘locked in’ to the unstoppable dynamic of climate change and extinction. Not much was made of the methane time bomb but when Prof Wadhams is quizzed into admitting five years as a possible diary marker for a cataclysmic event in my opinion I agree.
E&OE .. merely my personal views, no harm intended, copyright for text climate-change-briefing.com 2021
The IPCC is an organisation I am very sceptical of, the experts are ‘hand-sorted’ so to speak which as we know with the lamentable omission of Prof Peter Wadhams in their last big science-fest a few years ago and so by not publishing his work (the considerations of a world ranking Arctic ice expert) … this means mostly the IPCC can only offer a sanitised and diluted version of what could actually happen to us all.
Heres a case in point of the IPCC not liking the extent of what could occur in the next few years re climate change and how they throw out of the window any modelling that scares or offends them, its bad science, selective science of the worst sort, be sure to look at the chart …
It must be remembered that if we model climate on a childs eight inch football the portion that we inhabit ie half a mile up and half a mile down equates to the thickness of a cigarette paper, one thousandths of an inch which is half the thickness of a human hair… FACT.
This means the chemistry set known as our worldwide climate systems are easily jarred and reactive to new ingredients ie temperature, ocean flow, atmospheric modifications, jet stream modification, ice loss, methane eruption, carbon particles ie dust, the loss of algal activity in the oceans, changing weather patterns over whole continents, etc etc.
In other words ‘crazy cussed stuff’ … such as drought where we don’t want it (lets say Americas grainbelt or Chinas rice bowl) and rain where it should not be for example in the Gobi Desert or the Himalayas (just guessing). Today we hear in the news that California is losing its electricity supply, upstream theres not enough water to power the hydro-electric generators.
Therefore in the above link which exposes the IPCC dislike of what could happen andrefusal to accept modelling for a more catastrophic future than they are prepared to admit, I personally go with Sam Carana and fear the temperature rise will be greater than any contemplated by the IPCC, we are being spoon fed only what is deemed digestible by certain experts and vested interest.
What is fundamental to all this forecasting and modelling is that EVERYTHING seems somehow to be involved in a myriad of self reinforcing feedback loops. For instance today we hear on the news that Siberian fires are releasing carbon particles right up into the North Pole, this was easily seen on NASA Worldview a few days ago. Therefore the ice becomes darker, absorbs heat quicker and … BINGO melts faster from above, never mind the warmer water attacking from beneath. It will be near an instantaneous event when all ice ‘flashes’ from the Arctic, an event of probably weeks, months but not decades.
We have to fight, we cannot go down without a fight, but will it do any good? Not really.
It saddens me that hubris, name it what you will, will never un-mend peoples needs for vehicles of any sort which always one way or another carry huge carbon costs in manufacture and huge problems of disposal.
We need to live near our work, to walk there or maybe an electric or hydrogen trolleybus.
We need a one child policy everywhere. And applaud those with no children.
Car ownership of any sort needs to be a rarer thing.
Vastly reduce the American style burger culture.
Much reduce airflight for personal and even business need.
Minimise food waste, ie see your supermarket near closing, trolleyfulls of meat for disposal!
Only eat what you need.
Look at the footprint for concrete as a building material.
Look at the longevity of wind production, not so green.
etc etc name anything you like, there will be a downside to it!
If we lived ‘biblically’ simple farmers and traders and craftspeople I’m sure we would not be in this mess.
Will any of the above bullet points help us all … not really.
From very little these last few months lately they are becoming more easily seen ie what can be construed as chemtrail. This blog here of mine has lots of chemtrail diary and photographs for the previous two or three years. Google searches indicate i am the UKs most prolific blogger on these things, maybe thats why theres little for me to photograph or record this last half year.
Many if not most people will not acknowledge the chemtrail phenomena, but ask any Californian, they get lots, likewise from NASA Worldview places to look are English Channel, Irish Sea, Isle of Man and Cumbria, also North Sea, Dogger Bank. Biscay used to get lots and into central France, not much seen lately if NASA Worldview is anything to go by, a very incomplete data source as to the ‘one-shot’ timing of the picture we are presented. I somehow need high def realtime satellite imagery …. how do i obtain this? Ideas anyone?
Yesterday Friday 23rd July 2021 here NE England in the sky above visible from early and until past sunset in the far western horizon, what i assume to be the west UK flight corridor.
Using my DQA system of a couple of years ago i rate as…
Duration = all day ie 10/10.
Quantity= moderate ie 3/10.
Affect= no dark ‘reaction clouds’ merely a spreading haze or whitening of the sky ie 3/10 only.
Therefore my DQA for yesterday Fri 23rd July 2021 is 10, 3, 3.
Q. Why are these lines in the sky not fading quickly, why so persistent, why widen out to form a much wider definite ‘band’ in the sky, they stay there for hours?
Why some days and not others?
Why sometimes in a repeated flight path, a corridor, a predictability for any one day?
Its my opinion ‘whitening of the skies’ will become much more mainstream, be introduced as such as a necessary step to counter climate change ( I’m guessing at forthcoming COP Glasgow). We know its all futile, there are so many grim interconnected feedback loops, its as if we are having to re-write the book of planetary weather systems, ie DMS (algae), methane, sulfate, ocean circulation systems, the loss of ocean oxygenators known as algae, etc etc. Yesterday I suddenly thought …. “What if our sewage treatment filter bed systems where we use live algae and plankton collapsed due to extreme heat, could this occur? Just about everything else is, its a joke of mine we just about have everything happening other than aliens! So far people just do not seem to be making the adjustments necessary.
Lines in the sky diary Monday 26th 2021, plenty to see in the evening, say six or eight at any tine, including a criss cross example. I hadn’t time to keep looking up at the sky, work indoors kept me busy, so if we just count what was actually observed my DQA sytem rates it as 3,3,2. ie 3/10 duration, 3/10 quantity, 2/10 affect.
Next day Tues 26th July again tasks indoors keep me busy but also the sky itself is obscured, cloudy. However NASA Worldview shows what I from experience see as an altered ie chemtrail sky off the coast here in north east England. ie https://go.nasa.gov/3ye1BXW
Note above it is the ‘french grey’ colouring that is chemtrail, half of what you see above, the main solid lighter cloud presence in my opinion is natural. Click on the link and click to enlarge, this backs up my suspicion. Also, click the different layers and look at northern France ie Brittany.
This is indeed something the IPCC (ie a worldwide ‘formal’ association and so-called working group of bods pertinent to governments, policy, forecasting and climate change) which in reality lags way behind in vision and of forecasting the dreaded consequences of global warming.
So many crashes and disasters seem so under-reported and under-recognised, for instance to name just a few topics …. the Arctic, jet stream, diatoms, algae, plankton, marine food chain, loss of seabirds, loss of salmon, loss of bees, flying insects, decreasing soil health and microbial activity, methane, importance of ocean algae for DMS and oceanic weather systems, even the decline of the beloved wasp!
In my own garden and at a nature reserve I have visited near daily for decades I’m sure theres less bees and flying insects, hoverflies, Vanessids etc. At the rear of this house two out of three birdboxes have been taken over by bees these last couple of years, my ‘unusual’ garden providing lots of flowering plants and shrubs for them, all intentional. Say March to July I’m actually not in the further reaches of my back garden as I want nesting birds and fledglings to feel undisturbed, apart of course from the dreaded hawk that even last night whizzed past my head and I think had caused problems for the blackbirds, a single adult blackbird clucking the alarm call for more than twenty minutes, I’m guessing as much distress as warning to others. I even a few years ago witnessed a queen fly her flightless workers into the birdbox one by one, carried ‘piggy-back’ from the shrubbery and vegetation at the far edge of the lawn, a sight I’ll never forget. She must have brought them in by stages, grouped for the final hurdle into the birdbox. So that is no problem, I’ll stick another couple of birdboxes up soon, made by me of thicker heavier section wood than anything one can usually buy.
The IPCC seems slow and stagnant on everything. From my viewpoint as merely an interested layman I don’t think there is anything that the IPCC is not woefully slow or blind to at present nor cognisant of the fast happening realtime changes, Governmental deficiencies and their consequences. For instance its near impossible to find mention online of the diatom/ bryozoan symbiosis that constitutes a living coral reef, all we ever hear is ‘coral whitening’ but no practical explanations for the ‘mechanics’ for this to occur, why the bryozoans have perished. To my mind the great IPCC sticking point and the professionals that comprise its panels and working groups is the spectre of potentially losing ‘funding’ for speaking out or being avoided and shut out by colleagues. From what I’ve read the IPCC also seems unable to realise the importance of the interconnectedness of feedback loops, Sam Carana mentions this regularly. An example, increased CO2 triggers plants to reduce conversion of CO2 to O …. and their pollen becomes less nuitritional / of value to bees and insects and I think I’m right in saying there is a decrease in nuitritional of green plant food material to humans and animals as a food source. Happy days!
This is from the above link, if this doesn’t grab attention and motivate then nothing will.
Heres a vid below I’m adding a day later, my heart goes out to all the people and animals and whatever that are stuck with these horribly high temperatures. With the attendant drought we wonder if west coast living might become a thing of the past. We can assume as summer rolls on wildfire will set new records, setting more ash and soot onto the surface of arctic ice and melting it even quicker, the big time bomb (of many) in my mind will be when we lose most of the ice as presently visible by satellite, ice extent is still quite considerable but it is thickness that is rapidly decreasing, ie multi-year ice is fast diminishing.
But no moths in two hours whatsoever have entered into my kitchen and this is from a large garden full of established shrubs and including beyond countless various nooks and crannies.
There is something wrong, that is for sure.
But a google search reveals next to nothing of up to the minute (or year) moth decline here in the UK.
Luckily my garden displays maturity, complex planting ie a great jumble of many different things and many many niche environments, all mostly never disturbed by any human ie me.
As per usual after the summer solstice the nights seem to be cutting in quickly. This is not something I revel in, luckily a couple of nights ago I treat myself to a car ride up to where for near twenty years we fed horses and me n whatever pet dog went round on our circular walk of an hour. The place is loaded with memories, I fully realise the value of this ‘extra-curricular activity’ and am moving toward when time permitting to ‘get out more’ to stay in touch with this focus of location from years gone past.
The June shutdown of birdsong seemed early this year, I generally name it as the ‘June 13th shutdown’, but this year things seem a bit off course, earlier. A pigeons nest I suspect rock pigeon, was found destroyed and eggs scattered in my garden this morning. I wonder at the new tenants in the let property next door, very cat orientated but also I suspect against garden birds and their song. Why do I think this …. leylandii next door felled to zilch, I suspect her complaints, a dark woman I suspect wanting her own way, I doubt she’ll have much to do with me. Also obviously ‘very set in their ways’, as if at thirty five going on seventy.
Good news is that both birdboxes on rear of house host bee colonies. My garden provides lots of flowering plants, but I look further afield at neighbouring gardens and its a pathetic spectacle, I look around and all is barren, ignorant nothingness and I reckon the birds, insects and small animals likewise think the same. I think its fair to say they vote with their feet so to speak and most winged things flock to my place.
You have to realise thinning can occur from underside as well as from the top. The former I’m guessing will be the downfall of the Antarctic ice shelves as they are levered away from the parent body, its a different set-up down south so to speak.
The action is in the Arctic as we read in the above, the highest and lowest extremes in Siberia at one same location has now set new records and sat imagery shows the depletion and the near non-existance of multi-year ice. You can add my tears to the ever increasing sea level.
Arctic News (arctic-news.blogspot.com) is also a valuable read. Locations such as the shallow Laptev Sea are forever burnt into my mind. I’ve a £1k wager with friend Gary who is a little sceptical of the severity of my forecast that if we have not reached 3deg C or above by end of 2026 then I will hand him £1k cash, no quibble. I don’t want it to be so but we must all realise the severity of what is happening with multiple feedback loops, all self and mutually reinforcing to greater and higher levels, its a lethal chemistry set we should never have set in motion, as if all the ingredients are present and its one big joke to see how we exploit, extract and set in motion the inevitable. If only we could have lived as in a Biblical simplicity.
There are so many factors and components and values feeding into the active equation that is planetary science, remember our space on this spinning ball of eight inches diameter scales at one thousandth of an inch ie 0.001in equivilant to a cigarette paper licked and placed on a childs eight inch toy ball.
There is nothing we do re carbon emission that will take any effect inside of a decade, the latest scares and truths in fact are many, loss of the aerosol masking effect, arctic methane, loss of high altitude cloud cover, and my own pet hobby horse of (near never reported) of the loss of the oceanic plankton particularly diatoms, quite ironic as it is ancient diatoms that form the basis for 70% of the worlds oil and gas supplies.
Arch clown, otherwise now realised to be a ‘stand-up president’ as in comedian namely trump should be tried at The Hague for his four year climate denial, this is a crime against humanity, four valuable years lost.
What would help is a universal one child policy, a move from the American burger culture, to live close to work and abandon your car in whatever form it takes petrol or electric, none of them are particularly green. Everything starts and rests with the individual, I deliberately have hand washed my laundry for the last couple of years, its no problem to me as luckily I have a clean job, here in north east England works fine, a quick wring and the washing line does the rest, none of the endless tumbling and spinning of the electrical machine.
Theres approx five hundred posts on this paid for blog, please explore.
… is mostly better when I switch back to the old stack ie firefox and XP O/S. Immediately I can get at the info I’m looking for, the newer windows 10 is like a straightjacket re results and also the O/S interface is abysmal.
Immediately I find a website that is new to me, firstly melting permafrost and secondly a Jan 15 2020 article of yet again seabird die-off. My own hobby horse and fascination has been algae and plankton and my concern with the hardly barely reported loss of diatoms, the irony being 70% of the worlds oil and gas is derived from ancient deposits accrued from diatoms. And oh yes … every fifth breath we take we owe to the oxygenating properties of diatoms.
I’m also still vexed that trump and his crooked hangers-on waste the news cycle and the time of adults when we have better things to be attending to ie climate change.
trumps performance at Davos as everywhere he goes is repugnant to any caring, free thinking sensible citizen, in the last couple of days all we hear is trump carnage and apparent ineptitude, but however the gold plated turd does in fact seem to have some ie a little energy and momentary focus, witness the removal of wetland protection and environmental safeguards for water quality … like that runny clear thing that is the cornerstone to a families establishment and a communities survival.
Destruction and the lowest common denominator is the trump byword, nothing good comes from trump. He is a showman, a fairground barker, a Father Coglan; trump mobilises hate. trump has no real ethical talent, he just knows that de-stabilising the sludge at the bottom of the barrel might just keep him in Office.
I particularly am horrified at trumps absolute refusal to take notice of the natural world (ie that thing outside the window that makes the clouds roll by) … of climate and how quickly unfriendly feedbacks are cascading into a most horrible scenario.
It beggars belief the White House has sunk so low, the web / social media aiding his prospects enormously.
I think the above image ie NY Times doesn’t quite help us realise that it is running water that is under threat, that people and communities DOWNSTREAM expect better and deserve better than in the days of old.
When a seasoned, experienced no frills highly regarded Scientist (and many like him) use the term ‘existential impasse’ and stresses the absolute need for real world CO2 draw-down and which entails developing the technique and then implementing practical solutions with apparatus (huge apparatus) on a multi-scale Manhattan Project style venture around the globe and that these things we know are not happening in any forseeable large scale venture, then we know our days as a species are numbered. At least of those that are of ordinary means and not of obscene and excessive wealth who for a time will be able to bypass the inevitable (I’m thinking methane release, East Siberian Ice Shelf). Remember trees are no good, once increased CO2 hits as well as the methane the trees will shrink from the task, a question of timescale too, but never mind, pretend, its good for planetary sanity.
Look at the multi lane freeways, look at the adoration of huge personal vehicles, dinosaurs on wheels, can anyone detect a lessening of this fixation? No, men still want their big toys and outward success still has the same talismans to display. Of consumption, red meat, food waste, far too many airflights merely for leisure, diesels idling needlessly whilst the other person shops, everything spun and tumble-dried when the washing line used to suffice, food flown in from across the world, excessive lighting when not needed, the American burger culture, hubris and ego. No wonder we are struggling as a species and throwing all the others into jeopardy.
This year theres no short-eared owls to be seen here in NE UK, therefore we can assume vole populations are down (their food chain also) and how is the earthworm faring as chemtrail aluminium wreaks whatever destruction is unseen by most people. Already we know insect populations are much reduced hence songbird food sources are much scarcer, bees are critical, its supposedly dementia, again another nano-particle aluminium tie-in. By the time we get it as confirmed peer-reviewed scientific findings it will all be too late.
And heres a little idea of mine, living and spending much time so close to agricultural land, the landscape, a century ago stone walls were much commoner, we even had ‘hemels’ dotted around the agricultural landscape here in the North of England, ideal habitat / housing for small mammals and nesting sites. These days the vogue is for wire fencing and often with wildlife margins allowed, but its nothing near like the value of a stone wall, or winter protection for sheep for instance. Another example of how ‘we’ are trying so hard to be clever but absolutely missing the point. No-one observes, no-one evaluates, no critical thinking, what at one time would be termed the umbrella term COMMON SENSE.
I’m using a Mark Gertler painting below as what I perceive as the Merry-go-round of consumption, they all look hell bent on enjoying themselves, noisy and blind. The year 1916 and how very observant of Mark.