How slow and stupid we are …

I read Sam Carana and anything from Guy McPherson; he has a critical enquiring mind, one of the youngest Professors ever appointed in the USA.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

The slowness,  blindness and inaccuracy of the IPCC is astounding. I think I’m correct in saying didn’t include subsea methane release in their most recent ‘modelling’ (highly inaccurate anyway) and ignored melting Arctic ice. Lewis Carrol could have written the script. Levels that are in the short term are the levels that will destroy us, say x130 for methane; theres no medium or long term worth considering, we’ll not be here.

Anyways, 2C will come and go v quickly, better start thinking 3C plus, which of course means human life is teetering and gone.  Think about it, feedback loops of enormous world encompassing comprehensivity, nature in the raw so to speak, grain production areas disabled, theres nowhere else it can be done, corporations had better get ‘superfood’ substitutes developed v quickly. Thank God I don’t live in a large centre of population, water distribution / delivery / pumping and sewage disposal will become so critical.  And so on and so on …

So many pundits / governments / media voices seem to wish to project a false prediction that somehow or other 2 degrees C of warming will leave us all at a levelling off, when in fact the whole system of nature is now a frightening series of triggers and feedback loops revving up to go faster.

  • ice loss
  • jet stream
  • weather patterns
  • sea level rise
  • methane
  • green growing things ‘go in reverse’ for CO2 conversion
  • algae / diatom crash the oceans die (witness diatom / bryozoan symbiosis ie coral reef.
  • grain production
  • insects (pollinators) gone
  • aluminium levels
  • drinking water
  • power stations are nearly all coastal
  • etc

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/new-high-temperature-records-set-in-alaska-again-as-heat-wave-is-set-to-relinquish-grip/70008760

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hottest-weather-of-season-on-tap-for-northeast-as-record-challenging-heat-wave-builds/70008824

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48810170

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/arctic-winter-warmest-record-temperature-global-warming-climate-change-north-pole-melting-ice-caps-a8243631.html

 

 

I am baffled …

I had held YaleClimateConnections as worthwhile and a valid source for climate change info, not that I’m much of an avid watcher of these things, I’ve a life to lead and have gleaned full well where we are heading. When will the penny drop that ppl have not the time for presentations of say fifteen minutes, youtube has many other items that need to be scanned as quickly as possible, an attached precis in document form would be mighty handy.  But this mornings visit has me baffled. For instance at 02:40 we are told “by 2100” (a misnomer in itself) that I quote loosely …  “Permafrost carbon feedback by 2100 ‘is’ smaller, much smaller than human fossil fuel emissions” … EH ! ? “Its about ten percent of that” …. CRIKEY. Sorry, invert your arguament then factor in a move of the decimal point.

I find this misinformation and crap hard to stomach. Methinks there is skewed thinking, Orwellian newspeak in action; its called trump, the EPA putting the screws on. Maybe shrouded as a general balm to quell any mass hysteria? IPCC is not much better, its most recent foray into ‘forecasting’ I think I’m right in saying deliberately did not include material contributed by Prof Peter Wadhams the worlds expert on Arctic ice and forgot to factor in Arctic methane !!!

Earlier the first nugget of wisdom in this pointless misinformation from Yale is of the plant life re-colonising and will transform some areas of thawing permafrost / methane release to a nett uptake ie 00:50 and onto 01:00 ! Blimey … now that is real optimism gone crazy. Sorry but even a child would say a thin layer of green encroachment is far outnumbered by the dirty soup of thawing permafrost that in itself provides physical depth and bulk, coupled with and absence of oxygen to generate the dreaded methane that is 80-120 times he potency of the already dreaded CO2. Short term potency is all we need consider, human life will not be here to see it extend to the medium term. Remember too that with increasing CO2 and methane green growing things actually back down and go into reverse in their much needed conversion. Already diatom / algal populations and conversion are going into reverse, also diatom / bryozoan symbiosis on coral reef needs explaining clearly, not just the glib ‘bleaching’. Yesterday even, reading of the tiny numbers of remaining Right Whale and the loss of their principal food no mention is made that it is the loss of lower food chain, again diatoms/ algae that will probably be at the root of this problem.

Maybe I should have been a scientist, I hope I could get at the truth better than this.

 

Theres nothing in this presentation / vid that i can let go unchallenged, its back to back misinformation and nonsense, its endless and what is most alarming is that its issued June 2019!

“The abrupt thaw could represent about a half of the total permafrost climate feedback” at 02:50 …  in my opinion try 1,000 % plus.

“If we can slow down human carbon emissions” … no its all set in motion, nice optimism, but interconnected feedback loops and the workings of nature are so very stacked against us ie 03:25

“Hit our economy” …. yes indeed!

This is like something made by twelve year olds.

 

 

postscript … note the term ‘restricted grammar and limited vocabulary’ … reminds one of the Idiot in Chief presently occupying (sometimes) the Oval Office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspeak

One could say quite fairly that in this fag paper thin layer that we inhabit viewing the world as a childs football (ie 0.001in on an eight inch sphere) … drilling and capturing mostly the oil and gas from ancient diatoms that has upset the equilibrium which first allowed humankind to thrive and therefore latterly upset the amazing and horrifying multiplicity of feedback loops have now been forced to realign to the newly introduced contaminants and effluent that now trigger the chemical formula and physical  laws that are quite unstoppable.

trumps refusal and crowbar silencing (as with YaleClimateConnections above) are far worse than any war crime and he should be tried as such. Whilst we’ve got people in the dock maybe Carl Benz, Rudolf Diesel and Henry Ford are to be answerable. Strange but true.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

arctic methane.

Arctic methane is the biggie, on a ten year timescale x120 more potent then CO2 … this we know already from many sources online, I mean blogs and material from sensible people not alarmist junk of which the latter I tend to avoid.

Explaining to a new friend yesterday its not just the two and three deg C rise by at my guess 2026 (I’ve a £1k wager on this for 3C+ by end 2026) that will in itself hurt us ie its just a hotter day to endure … BUT its the effect on world interconnected natural systems with locked in feedbacks and associated drives that respond at such fine-scale limits that will alter this biosphere to become un-livable, this literally one thou inch thick biosphere on an eight inch diameter childs football.  This is thinner than any layer of modern varnish, more like the old fashioned shellac.  Already the jet stream has split into two loops and is streaming hot moist air over the Arctic. My guess is that the end of the greenland ice sheet I quote “By 2100” as bandied in the general press is woefully overestimated; the nature of ice melt is a law unto itself.

Note that of recent years no-one is bandying the expression that ‘nature is resilient’ anymore …

8 inch dia = 8k miles dia of planet Earth

therefore .001 in (one thou inch) = 1 mile approx.

cigarette paper = 0.001 in (copier paper is 0.004 in)

And still diesel drivers idle their engines all day, at work, at supermarkets whilst waiting, during lunchbreaks etc etc.

So much if not all of our CO2 to O conversion shuts down at increased CO2 levels, it does not / can not ‘rise to the occasion’, ie green plants and forests, diatoms, algae.  Likewise my particular ‘hobby horse’ and fascination with diatoms is a critical factor, the irony of using ancient deposits of oil and gas mainly derived from diatoms has led to their own and our demise, see also the loss of the symbiotic relationship of diatoms to bryozoans ie coral reef.  No-one has ever seen with the naked eye a diatom yet nearly all of our petrol and oil carbon lifestyle is based upon them.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251

 

 

 

 

climate change …

Youtubes worth listening to re climate change …

 

I have a wager, a one sided wager of £1,000 GBP, the other man loses nothing regardless, that I will donate to my friend quite happily if I am wrong on this … that by the end of 2026 my gut feeling is that we will have most certainly have overshot 2 deg C and it will be 3 deg C plus. I cannot see how otherwise, the interconnectedness of feedback loops, methane etc etc

 

Permafrost is one quarter of northen hemisphere landmass.

Just read the fact that a quarter of all northern hemisphere land mass is permafrost over at National Geographic; this is quite staggering really.

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/environment/2018/08/exclusive-some-arctic-ground-no-longer-freezing-even-winter

Thinking aloud … if we factor in the permafrost that lies beneath shallow seas ie the East Siberian ice-shelf then I assume the at present mostly frozen but rapidly thawing methane hydrate and impending microbial activity might well account for half land mass in the northern hemisphere that is likely to massively overtake man made contributions to rising CO2?

Our slick western values and means of doing things seems that we live in our own self-aggrandised bubble, think trump at its extreme. For years I’ve never been easy with the constant hop on idea of air travel, thirty years since I’ve flown. Why do you need a second home in another country, another continent? The gravity of what is to unfold cannot justify selfish long distance vehicular travel in any form.

Likewise all my washing of clothes is by hand in a bucket and drip dry on a washing line. Depths of winter will not be so easy but since Feb ie north east England quite do-able, I actually enjoy the process. The extra time it takes costs zero as opposed to the electricity needed and factored cost of depreciation/ replacement etc of the washing machine and people say my shirts, my towels look so clean! Maybe with constantly thinking technology and cleverer washing machines are always ‘better’ we have long forgotten what the original basic approach can achieve. Think also the obsession with ipads, iphones, connectivity, I have little or nothing of those things (detest the idea of 5G) and I think pen and paper are still worthwhile particularly if you wish to learn and memorise. I cut up old Bonio boxes and dog feed cartons and these are admirable carry-in-your-pocket crib sheets.

I’m happy I’ve halved my car miles, older, have explored my county sufficiently, have a rich ‘capital of happiness’ to draw from. Ten miles radius provides all I need, twenty miles would be a special outing!

Green up – carbon down!

 

 

 

Northern Canada: +22C when it should be zero.

Yikes, ultra creepy temp increase  … anything that says by 2100 Greenland Ice Massif will be gone … more like 2026 I’d say. This end of 2026 point in time is when i would think we are somewhere at a minimum of  3 to 4C global warming, you can wave goodbye to anything like a piddling 2C prediction … quite laughable sticking to 2C considering the interconnectedness of natures climate systems and feedback loops. If I’m not correct then I will donate £1k GBP to charities, no quibble.  Remember, the accelerating nature of ice melt is working against us, any child knows wake up next morning and it can often be an exasperating sight to see all the ice and snow mostly gone overnight as often happens here in northern England. Realise too that with increased ice-melt the freshwater adds to increasing humidity and rainfall. Therefore no albedo effect ie the reflective nature of a white landscape is lost and ad infinitum heat absorbancy spirals way beyond most publicly available predictions. Permafrost becomes mush, methane tumbles upwards from microbial, geological and thawing hydrate; better sort some space for all the oxygen cylinders we will need.

And then what ?

 

Heres a pic of what its like up there in NWT … https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/mackenzie-valley-winter-road-closed-1.5064202

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/truck-plunges-deline-ice-road-1.3477869

 

Postscript; thinking of ice loss, not even the term logarithmic in relationship to volume decay is applicable when the temperature is rapidly increasing as in the North West Territories cited above, any ‘steady state’ conformity to plotting arithmetic curves or laws of decay goes out the window or into the newly formed lake. Again, thinking of childhood observation of a quick thaw here in temperate England, all the melt seemed to merely sink into the earth itself which in a permafrost situation up north is the last thing we need. So therefore in my mind most ‘predictions’ are invalid, unreal because thawing ice behaves in its own unique way. Its back to what I fear by 2026.

At least i’m doing ‘something’ even if its quite by chance or the new circumstances of my wife passing away three years ago which has enabled me to do things differently, ie much reduced mileage in the car as I’m happier being nearer to home (I’m the ideal profile for an electric vehicle) …  washing machine bust and won’t be replaced, plastic bucket and a clothes line do all i want as theres no real dirt or grime to remove. Keeping the computer switched off most hours also helps in several ways, use books more, increase pleasure in sketching, copying, taking notes, memorise things … we don’t always need to be up on the latest news online, theres much human knowledge that is as good now as it was forty or a hundred years ago. I’ve no tv through choice and this suits me, bbc r3 and 4 provide sufficient, no mobile either and I’ve uninstalled the wireless remote heating thermostat. The only modern luxury I wish to retain is my central heating system and the pleasure of a hot bath !

Spinning and tumbling clothes dry here in England can be severely cut back and perhaps eliminated in many households, the washing line does all these things; particularly as these last few years we seldom have the rainfall here in NE England that we used to have.

A strange thing to talk about ….

On bbc r4 this week we had ‘Inside Science’ devote a segment to the prospect of the increasing methane levels in the next few years, Professor Euan Nisbet from Royal Holloway University of London emphasising tropical wetland methane but if my ears are working  correctly never once mentioned Arctic methane.

I am assuming tropical methane is a more steady state influence yet the Arctic variety in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates is on an astoundingly high trajectory of growth ie explosions of methane off the chart so to speak.

bbc radio is often a bit wonky and yet another example and shame upon the presentation of the subject.

I’ve blogged on Arctic methane previously, plenty of tags.

One cannot help but feel we are plunged into darkness whilst having just entered a strange new room, our steps are tiny, we will tentatively, timidly grasp at anything.

 

I find it profoundly irritating (and I refuse to take part) that we have to ‘log in’ to use the listen again facilityfor bbc radio, this is new and a bloody nuisance …

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0002r6y

https://www.royalholloway.ac.uk/about-us/news/royal-holloway-researchers-lead-project-to-remove-greenhouses-gases-from-the-atmosphere/