This link is usually my first port of call for Arctic warming, a highly qualified professional well worth reading. He knows all the active professionals / scientists and is certainly their equal, this is acknowledged. He says what he thinks, he no longer has any academic position / daytime job to fear losing.
Yikes, ultra creepy temp increase … anything that says by 2100 Greenland Ice Massif will be gone … more like 2026 I’d say. This end of 2026 point in time is when i would think we are somewhere at a minimum of 3 to 4C global warming, you can wave goodbye to anything like a piddling 2C prediction … quite laughable sticking to 2C considering the interconnectedness of natures climate systems and feedback loops. If I’m not correct then I will donate £1k GBP to charities, no quibble. Remember, the accelerating nature of ice melt is working against us, any child knows wake up next morning and it can often be an exasperating sight to see all the ice and snow mostly gone overnight as often happens here in northern England. Realise too that with increased ice-melt the freshwater adds to increasing humidity and rainfall. Therefore no albedo effect ie the reflective nature of a white landscape is lost and ad infinitum heat absorbancy spirals way beyond most publicly available predictions. Permafrost becomes mush, methane tumbles upwards from microbial, geological and thawing hydrate; better sort some space for all the oxygen cylinders we will need.
And then what ?
Heres a pic of what its like up there in NWT … https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/mackenzie-valley-winter-road-closed-1.5064202
Postscript; thinking of ice loss, not even the term logarithmic in relationship to volume decay is applicable when the temperature is rapidly increasing as in the North West Territories cited above, any ‘steady state’ conformity to plotting arithmetic curves or laws of decay goes out the window or into the newly formed lake. Again, thinking of childhood observation of a quick thaw here in temperate England, all the melt seemed to merely sink into the earth itself which in a permafrost situation up north is the last thing we need. So therefore in my mind most ‘predictions’ are invalid, unreal because thawing ice behaves in its own unique way. Its back to what I fear by 2026.
At least i’m doing ‘something’ even if its quite by chance or the new circumstances of my wife passing away three years ago which has enabled me to do things differently, ie much reduced mileage in the car as I’m happier being nearer to home (I’m the ideal profile for an electric vehicle) … washing machine bust and won’t be replaced, plastic bucket and a clothes line do all i want as theres no real dirt or grime to remove. Keeping the computer switched off most hours also helps in several ways, use books more, increase pleasure in sketching, copying, taking notes, memorise things … we don’t always need to be up on the latest news online, theres much human knowledge that is as good now as it was forty or a hundred years ago. I’ve no tv through choice and this suits me, bbc r3 and 4 provide sufficient, no mobile either and I’ve uninstalled the wireless remote heating thermostat. The only modern luxury I wish to retain is my central heating system and the pleasure of a hot bath !
Spinning and tumbling clothes dry here in England can be severely cut back and perhaps eliminated in many households, the washing line does all these things; particularly as these last few years we seldom have the rainfall here in NE England that we used to have.
Its difficult to get up-to-date information on this, i am also ‘stuck for time’; three and four years ago there was massive Pacific seabird collapse and likewise with oceanic diatom collapse whenever I ask online questions I never get a reply.
Lets start with …
Plenty of news coverage yesterday re insect decline, bizarre predictions of ‘100 years’ seem so silly, if insect loss stands as it does now I’d say three years, five or seven. How else, if they’re ‘dropping like flies’ (horrible pun) with nicotinoids and unmentioned aluminium levels then the tail off will can only be drastic. I feel so sorry for the knock on effects, to lose garden song birds will be so sad. Likewise bees, butterflies, and i wonder at earthworms. I garden for birds here, strangers have told me so, yet we use the term ‘garden songbird’ when in fact gardens suitable for them, swathes of urban garden are punctuated with barren grass patches at best or paving and gravel and the dreaded dreaded membrane. People just do not seem to connect, few people plant a garden hedge, there are other preoccupations, other toys to play with nowadays. People are so THICK …
My garden is a maze of carefully thought out ‘jumble’, niche corners, shrubs, flowering things, every day of the year theres something in flower. All done at little expense, lots from seed and cuttings.
Many farmers are not the best of operators in ensuring biodiversity, often on my rambles hedges are left to fail and thin and then remain as a few straggling hawthorn sixty years later. A most useful small / mini wood at the entrance to Old B Church was destroyed a few years ago, snowdrop churned to muck, for no purpose, the Forestry Commission a hundred miles away telling me they granted a license to fell and there will be i assume grant aid to develop another artificial synthetic planting. Here in our local Park much used by urban dogwalkers similar nonsense is occurring, an obsession in destroying potential butterfly habitat ie strimming and putting out of reach leaf litter for blackbirds with an obsession with wood chippings; maybe I’m wrong, maybe it will house worms and woodlice, I shall have to check.
Likewise at a couple of separate places i visit, i place bird seed in useful rough weathered fencepost, for twenty years yellowhammer have always accompanied me along that road in spring and summer, its the least i can do. I feed horses too, initially a little neglected, twenty years ago, nowadays the owners realise they need to make an effort. Its what you do that matters, not platitudes or vacuous observations with no follow up. In the bad snow of seven years ago it was only one visit in six weeks that I missed a 28 mile round trip to feed each afternoon; snow tyres being essential.
Do kids do gardening at school? They’ve stopped the wood and metalwork decades ago. And I always wonder that once the photo-op has passed what are the results of their efforts with trowel and seed packet? The consistency, the regularity of effort?
I recall my years eleven to sixteen in a village Secondary School NE England … the microscopes only ever came out of the cupboard once in five years, the biology / science teacher hopeless and uninterested, many lessons devoted to playing ‘hangman’ while he played around with his admin tasks!
We most definitely are bringing up kids that cannot make perform simple tasks to satisfactorily conclusion, cannot complete a practical task. The term ‘using ones hands’ still carries to many a derogatory inflexion to it. Lets blame the Educationalists, they have eradicated so much that is practical and geared toward a finished piece of work, not just fannying on with the apron and plastic specs. We live in a bullshit world, we are getting what we deserve.
An American style obsession driven by big business, all sizes of business with red meat and burgers will have to be re-thought, likewise population control; likewise what we spray on the fields. Probably its too late, but i would never give in, never decline to make the effort.
Aluminium levels are much ignored, not embraced as mainstream and my interest in diatoms is just too obscure (fundamental to the marine food chain) to yield anything from online searches!
Isn’t that a beautiful rendition of the lapwing! So accurate, so characterful, a credit to the artist. Their antics, their beautiful rippling warble across upland landscape is joyful, a masterpiece of creation. To those that don’t know it, they are sadly lacking.
So lets remind ourselves and also learn …
The Esquire article holds worthwhile links to get a grip on climate change, it would benefit donald j trump enormously to get a handle on this ….
With warming oceans you can forget abt the marine food chain, lower strata and indispensable diatoms, algae, plankton hardly get mentioned yet are crucial. Its my opinion its diatom collapse that we’ve lost coral reef, its a symbiotic relationship and have yet to find one article stating this case. Its burning the oil and gas remains of diatoms that has led us to this predicament, ironic in the extreme. A few months ago i posted a ‘make a model of planet Earth’ whereby the usable space ie a mile total on this planet is represented by a one thousandths of an inch cigarette paper moistened onto the surface of a kids eight inch diameter football. Scale one thou inch equals one mile. A lot of the ice is melting from below, as when kids, we are so suprised next day its gone. As Sam Carana tells us its when grain production fails that we will really be in a predicament. Its as if everything we have, nature etc is merely a scummy film ready to be wiped off.
trump is a dickhead of an extreme and dangerous kind, seems theres a word to express his wish to incubate, spread and render viable the worst of ignorance for the common masses i mean those people he cares not one jot for other than poll and voting numbers … the spread of ignorance agnotology.
postscript : here a link from the above Esquire article, near total absence of insects and butterflies from Puerto Rican forest as visited by scientific professionals ie 98% of ground dwelling insects are gone … https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/15/insect-collapse-we-are-destroying-our-life-support-systems
Just found this … https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1
… its in nature.com so it has validity.
With the temp rise, the loss of diatoms and the loss of coral (erroneously in my opinion termed ‘bleaching) the bryozoans fail, die because the microscopic partners have gone. Therefore to paraphrase trump … “Who would have known invisible things could be so complicated” … yup!
I got the link above from arctic-news … makes for the grimmest reading, but I’m glad its there. As I’ve learnt and repeated for the life of this blog the past year it is the sledge hammer threat from the thawing subsea methane that will stop the pendulum of life. Its a fact, its elementary observation and realisation, things as yet hardly seen that we cannot get politicians or the IPCC to take heed; the latter as generally acknowledged by climate-savvy scientists to be a report twenty years behind; witness the fact that the IPCC does not even recognise or factor in the importance of arctic methane release which in fact will be the death of us all.
Yet can we get ‘the man in the street’ to ponder on these things, to think a little bit more ???
Go back to my post half a year ago ‘making a model of planet Earth’ we are in fact a habitable zone of a wet cigarette paper placed on a childs 8inch football. Thats all we have and so hence our habitable layer is ultra sensitive to change, is staggeringly interconnected in all climate systems, jet stream, oceanic waterflow, gulf stream, accelerated melting of Greenland ad infinitum … never mind the fun down in the Antarctic.
Please note I always have my radar turned on for either plain simple crackpot sites or sites designed to mislead or render a subject as ‘nuts’ ie misinformation. Beware that general media can be ‘loaded’ in this respect. My own beef being bbc radio news r4 being so un-crtical of trump and their choice of words actually sounding to support him or serve him up in the best light. That is what I think is the value of my blog, quality material.
postscript …. we may as well have the video from the latest arctic-news, it makes a valuable contribution.
Its just hit me, this year I cannot recall seeing the little hoverflies that used to be so prevalant at my local nature reserve the ‘pit heap’.
In five years time will I be able to see any honeybees, any pied flycatchers here in the UK ?? … I think the answer will be negative.
Are massive and most likely catastrophically so. The battle is with nature and the natural world of feedback systems. All were in place, fully functioning and in equilibrium well before we walked upright.
To paraphrase the twit in the White House …. “Who would have thought Climate Change could be so complicated” … Yes and so powerful and so all enveloping. Its ‘everything’ and its as if the roulette wheel decides our fate on one cruel spin.
Carbon capture must happen, yet so far its exploratory and small scale. And may I interject that for each oversize SUV or needless pick-up there will be a swathe of carbon capture apparatus to offset the crap!
The IPCC for instance does not even factor in loss of Arctic ice; its computer modelling is twenty years behind the times and not one recognised Ice Scientist was on the panel. Its as if we are suffering from collective stupidity, the Brits cannot handle the Brexit problem, the Americans are saddled with an idiot in the White House.
Heres some exclamation marks !!!!!! and a few more !!!!!
Below is a vid tieing in Prof Peter Wadhams (Arctic Expert) and a presentation in immediate response to IPCC outdatedness / time lag / ineptitude.
Salient points ….
- IPCC much over complacent.
- Controversial area of geo-engineering not explored.
- IPCC contains / embraces discredited modelling ie ice won’t disappear till end of century.
- IPCC ignores albedo effect ie reflectivity of the suns warming rays instead of worst case being absorbed (think Arctic methane) .
- IPCC ignores increased melting of Greenland.
- IPCC not factoring in loss of ice caps.
- Govts can quote any target for the future, yet we all know theres always a shortfall that is excused away sometime hence…
To contradict the IPCC, reaforestation is in a practical world not feasible; timescale too! But it always makes nice tv to see junior school bods piddling about with seedlings… Germany for instance is stripping forests to get at open cast mining of lignite … dirty dirty dirty.
Also the bitchiness, obfuscation and sheer downright twattery of Science reared its head when Dr Wadhams chapter on arctic methane was omitted from a written book / presentation for a Conference in China (without informing Prof Wadhams) because we are told the Harvard Prof in charge did not believe Arctic methane was a possibility !!! Remember that methane will arrive from three sources, geological, microbial and the release from thawing frozen hydrates; all from vast areas previously frozen we never visit nor can visualise in their seemingly endless expanse, ie East Siberian ice shelf which exists in huge swathes of shallow sea.
Interestingly Stuarts presentation included ‘Villian of the Day’ naming Theresa May in which she has sanctioned fracking and fossil fuel infrastructure; I don’t know details.
Also, a brief list ….