To discuss Global Warming …

This link below provides a lot of topics for discussion, the primary one being the IPCC falls short of providing the full picture of where we are heading with Climate Change; of falling short of what could be likely reality in the years ahead.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

As I’ve always said (at least from Nov 2017 which was for the first time I switched on to Climate Change) …. the IPCC incorporates large scale carbon capture that has yet to be invented in any serious form and ignores the upcoming effect of methane in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates. Lets enumerate the points and note that I do agree with what Sam Carana has to say which I argue is not bias but reason, the evidence and common sense. When trump as yesterday states that the Climate Change Scientists are being ‘political’ he himself is operating at a totally political and morally unsound position. Every sane thinking person on the planet knows this, the canaries are screaming but trump and his twisted and bitter white old men of the GOP insist otherwise !!!

Let me work through to precis Sams points …

  1.  IPCC has moved the baseline (though I’ve yet to read the IPCC document) …  imagine already how much smelting, burning of coal, steam power had added carbon to the atmosphere already by 1850.
  2. IPCC erroneously applies a straight line projection for whatever lies ahead, in reality its a huge tangle of interconnected self and mutually re-inforcing feedback ever increasing feedback loops. What engineers call positive feedback ie an expotential knock-on and is an upward curve, never conforms to a straight line plot.
  3. IPCC ignores spikes, these causing the really nasty shock effects.
  4. IPCC baseline chosen to wallpaper over the worse view from any other historical baseline.
  5. IPCC playing with the stats.
  6. Anomaly as ocean temperature is at surface and land temp figs as air based figures, this Sam Carana tells us can introduce error.
  7. Method and missing data not embracing latest thinking / developments
  8. IPCC omits temp spikes of 2016 that would have as yet again increased the projected figures and are omitted.
  9. WOW … IPCC does not take into account all the real world happening now events ie snow and ice loss, albedo effect, methanes, last ten year carbon effect, aerosol effect, increased water vapour feedback, jet stream alteration, sea level rise and expansion, green plant CO2 conversion fall off, carbon from wildfires, etc etc. Each single point is so very interconnected and all exacerbate each other.  May I add loss of diatoms and plankton that are major CO2 to O converters as well as being part of ocean weather systems, losing coral reef being a symptom of a the more fundamental crash in ocean food chain, the diatoms. Its time now for a fast tracking approach to science, silly bloody clusters of cagouled junior scientists out on the ice shelf / mass is looking a bit twee; a two year peer review is too slow.
  10. IPCC seems stuck in a time bubble, looking at a carbon ‘budget’ approach when in fact carbon is a massive deficit, a carbon bankruptcy, a bankrupt carbon lifestyle that has to be fundamentally altered (which I doubt we can).
  11. Same old song, IPCC is deficient in abolishing fossil fuels.
  12. Tax or fees needed on polluters. Note the worlds obsession with cheap air travel, polluting gas guzzlers, car based lifestyle (of which I too am some way guilty). In my opinion even electric vehicles are suspect and not as green as we’d like to think.

 

Okay, enumerated rant over. As stated previously, I keep things brief here at this new blog of mine. Human nature being what it is, hubris, the desire for status-objects and lifestyle, recreational air travel, a meat diet … all are near insurmountable obstacles.  There would have to be unwavering catastrophe before affluent western populations realise changes must occur and of course global warming and climate change being what it is ie a cumulative self re-inforcing feedback all change would be too late.

There are three embedded vids at the bottom of Sam Caranas blog, lets listen to the first briefer version of Prof Peter Wadhams wise words (a practical Scientist, a lifelong specialist in sea ice) and pretend not to notice the tedious drawn out intro …

  • IPCC non-alarmist, soft pedalling on feedback machanisms.
  • IPCC pays no attention to potential run-away warming.
  • IPCC by not mentioning a major contributor/s its as if it doesn’t exist !
  • More of the same little sticking plasters or feelgood initiatives are no longer any good.
  • Note that even if we stopped all emmisions ie 100% … its already not sufficient to avert us to catastrophe.
  • World expert on sea ice Prof Wadhams tells us that what the IPCC says on sea ice is ‘daft’. Listen to this crap from the IPCC “An ice free summer once every hundred years”  !!!
  • To approximately quote Prof Wadhams “One would have thought that by now the IPCC would be so embarrassed by its out-dated modelling to have withdrawn that type of approach”. “Pretending the situation isn’t the way it is”.
  • Not a single well-known sea-ice researchers name on the author list from the IPCC.

Lets not forget thawing permafrost and the East Siberian iceshelf.

I’ve thought for years that a condensed print onto paper resume of such talkie vids would save time, get the point across quicker. You can name the app after me …..

It vexes me at the increasing and needless number of ever bigger SUVs and even more expensive cars that my neighbours buy; quite needless as we can hardly assume they are involved in ‘light haulage’! I assume they a) feel they need them and b) are drawn into such a value system. I’ve a neighbour that eats nothing but meat and most others that value a meal at its meat content or its closeness to an oversized burger. Others that thrill at their endless air travel, even a weekend break involves the airport or the insanity of a weekend home a thousand miles away. I’m no angel, far from it but strive to somehow do better, to keep things simple, a lighter carbon footprint and have done for years; at least my work is nearby and I’ve no need to venture more than a few miles.

 

Climate change links …

Heres useful info … http://neven1.typepad.com/

look at the articles linked at right ie …

https://www.iflscience.com/environment/incredible-nasa-image-reveals-how-much-of-the-world-is-on-fire-right-now-/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record

…. well worth an hour or two of close investigation.

As stated before, an idiot in the White House does NOT help. IPCC predictions and modelling is woefully and increasingly off target incorporating by this time large scale carbon capture that has yet to be invented and totally blind to any release of methane in its three forms. Too many scientists and organisations are treading too carefully, a mindset promulgated from the bizarre stance of the trumps disastrous EPA.

All of what I write demonstrates the total control that nature and simple physics, the forces and interconnected systems of nature plays in this film-thin layer of life on the globe of our planet. Even plants and growing things, algae, diatoms, forests etc are acting in ways contrary to our needs, reducing their vital transpiration ie CO2 to O conversion as trigerred by increasing CO2. Whoops we say “Is that the way its really supposed to happen?”

An example of stupidity, these last couple of weeks seen a highly unusual vehicle for these parts an American Humvee type monstrosity complete with ‘HUM’ personalised reg plate.  I can only conclude … you can guess the words. If nothing else an example of money to burn.

In actual practical conclusion, whatever we try to do in minimising affluent carbon lifestyle is firstly not going to be realised as so many are addicted and welded to their outwardly visible SUV dashing around ‘we are consuming’ lifestyle but also once the methane really starts to release (which it will sooner than ten years) our own efforts ie mankind will be quite ineffective. However, to give up, to not fight is untenable; unthinkable. We need a worldwide one child policy, we need to live in a more sophisticated ie ‘simpler’ manner – not a contradiction in terms. Its quite brainless to buy and consume.  Populations must be prepared for the worst, move or starve, flooding, traditional growing areas no longer viable, extremes. Its all happened before in various forms, its just this time we have too much baggage.

Fran Ulmer on Climate Change.

I’m impressed, good speaker and better if left uninterrupted.

This one hour gets through lots of material, worthwhile, the Q&A works well.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran_Ulmer

We hear that existing infrastructure and homes on what was previously stable permafrost are having to be relocated.

At 30 mins we hear of the Russian excitement to open up Arctic seaways.

At 37 mins a considered, honest and realistic responese to the Q of “What is trump doing” …. and I’m glad she mentions that companies, corporation, states, cities are making their own way forward on climate change.

Theres lots, worthwhile !

Also Fran Ulmer : https://medium.com/@StanfordWoods/three-reasons-the-arctic-is-changing-and-why-you-should-care-q-a-with-fran-ulmer-69ada71102cc

http://www.kyuk.org/post/scientists-fear-presidential-administration-will-wipe-climate-change-data-government-websites

 

ps… My previous point still holds, that it would be mighty handy if we could get hold of time indexed transcript for talks such as these, I mean talks that are valuable and worthwhile. Surely voice recognition can convert easily and quickly to that ‘lil old thing called ‘the printed word’ ? On paper too, which I enjoy.

Climate Change links …

I started this blog half a year ago to bring together pithy to the point links and worthwhile material to try and save time for others. It sort of works as I hoped, visitor numbers are woefully low but if nothing else its been an education for myself and a valuable repository.  I bring you only quality material … ie science / pro contributors. Hint: click these film channels to see more.

 

 

 

Above at 05:20 note that the top ten percent on the planet produce 50% of the CO2 emissions. People knock China for instance (and India) but aren’t we lucky the bicycle was their mode of transport for the ordinary, the masses. And to see an Indian train with hundreds cling to the exterior must surely be max utilisation of motive power.

 

A map of natures reaction …

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/07/can-we-weather-the-danger-zone.html

Its three posts ago from arctic-news but this map I’ve pasted below is certainly worth contemplation and committing to memory, I find it stunning. Titled vulnerable carbon pools.

Here also we can find the same map, its in several sites across the web … http://cosmology.com/ClimateChange101.html

Also from Aug 2013 … https://www.sbs.com.au/news/comment-methane-and-the-risk-of-runaway-global-warming

I cannot get it to copy and paste and being an old geezer my instant reaction is draw it on paper, but taking pics and uploading is a chore for me now mostly. Recently its popped into my mind several times that drawing maps freehand would be a useful hobby for me and in fact for kids too … most are woefully ignorant of the shape of countries, location, the assemblage of the land masses. Something to draw you out of yourself and is not connected with money and also the pursuit of what I call an American style  ‘leisure lifestyle’  and sold to us as consumerism… create some quiet time, another version of a Tea Ceremony! Use an atlas in book form, no need for a screen for this one. Screens in fact are page specific likewise the material delivered by google, books in some or many instances can provide a so much broader and serependitious view ie you can leaf through the pages. Thank goodness I grew up in a pre-web age.

One thing I do miss about the pre-web days is how easy it was to stumble upon new things, for instance art in its various forms, architecture, sculpture, paintings, watercolours, sketches; thought made visible by clever and talented people.

Got it …..

carbon-pools-1

Its more than just a ‘map of the land’ my initial choice of ‘nature’ in the post title fits better as the change and disturbance of temperature means that the brown areas ie high altitude peatlands are in for a catastrophic awakening. Remember that methane exists in three forms, geological deposits, frozen hydrate and microbial action. But on reflection ‘reaction’ fits better as boy-o-boy these huge unpopulated land masses are most certainly going to react. Remember too the slowing down of transpiration of green growing things in reaction to increased CO2; diatoms / algae much affected (another converter out in the oceans)  reduced regeneration or new growth of trees due to water and heat stress and the myriad of self amplifying and interconnected amplifying interconnected feedback loops. Certainly the increasing desire for a meat based diet is wasteful of resources, too expensive ecologically and can be seen to lag fifty years as to what we should be doing nowadays. Its not easy to keep this to an intentional brief post as is the fashion these days. Thats why theres previous posts here to read through. I’m learning as I go …..

For instance to quote from http://www.sbs.com.au posted 2013  …

In 2010 a Russian marine survey conducted more than 5000 observations of dissolved methane showing that more than 80% of East Siberian shelf bottom waters and more than 50% of surface waters are supersaturated with methane. Atmospheric methane levels (during glacial periods: 300–400 parts per billion; during interglacial periods: 600–700 ppb) have recently reached 1850 ppb – the highest in 400,000 years (see Figure 2b)

Much food for thought and would have liked to think could prod for Governmental and worldwide action. The only country to pull out of the Paris Agreement, trump is an odd character to say the least, he needs enlightened influence, not the circle of courtiers and grim outdated lobbyists at present whispering to his ear. Likewise Elon Musk, if he’s as clever as he portrays he should forget about cars (EV are not that green in a full carbon audit anyway) and get into carbon capture. If trump turned on this and got climate change savvy it would be the greatest boost possible for the world to like him, its win-win for everyone.

 

 

postscript … re drawing maps freehand. People wouldn’t do it but they’d blow thousands jetting to places they needn’t go. I am very anti air flight, always have been.

also, just found UK Guardian on current heatwave  …. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/13/heatwave-sees-record-high-temperatures-set-around-world-this-week

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/13/disaster-half-a-million-hectares-of-forest-bulldozed-in-great-barrier-reef-catchment

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/20/senate-to-probe-great-barrier-reef-grant-of-444m-to-small-charity

 

 

Googling for the Gulags ….

… and I find this incredibly interesting post re thawing permafrost:-

http://large.stanford.edu/publications/power/references/wolf/

Its subject is the Kolyma, something I’d never heard of but now seems so important, I need to get a pole centred map of the northern hemishere rigged up or maybe better to draw one myself and therefore learn by doing, to be better memorised. Funny, this would be a few evenings simple near zero cost hobby yet how few if any would ever do such a thing, its not premade or drawn all coloured and finished down a wire and the outcome is that I will have memorised the map I have drawn myself. Likewise google the places, the rivers and get a sense of it all. Zero cost carbon free travel.

This link above is all you need for sixty minutes of getting an idea of the vast uninhabited spaces in Russia that are or were permafrost. Literally, as the permafrost thaws all the bits of hair, skin and whatever will now be coming alive with microbial activity, releasing some CO2 and mostly methane because of being in an anaerobic ie oxygen deprived situation trapped beneath the surface.

You can have all the apps, ten lane highways, three car families and wifi control in the world but its all irrelevant junk as nature and simple chemistry and physics run to a new as yet unknown equilibrium for the planet.

WordPress likes a pic, heres a link ….

Follow the link to see ownership, its not mine. The strata displayed is fascinating and something that I would always be looking for, taking notice of in my five decades of rambling; looking at land disturbance, exposed strata, quarry faces, lots! Likewise the sky, thats why chemtrails jarr so much with me.

Heres another thin yet profitable ‘link’ or connection that unfolds … theres a Dreadnoughts sea shanty ‘Old Maui’ that mentions the Kamchatka Sea and lo and behold we have another profitable area of study.

Read of the Yukaghir people and their unique language, sadly disappearing … https://www.rbth.com/society/2014/01/17/the_yukaghirs_a_nomadic_siberian_tribe_on_the_bring_of_extinction_33149.html