IPCC underestimations …. COP 24

Are massive and most likely catastrophically so. The battle is with nature and the natural world of feedback systems. All were in place, fully functioning and in equilibrium  well before we walked upright.

To paraphrase the twit in the White House …. “Who would have thought Climate Change could be so complicated” … Yes and so powerful and so all enveloping. Its ‘everything’ and its as if the roulette wheel decides our fate on one cruel spin.

Carbon capture must happen, yet so far its exploratory and small scale. And may I interject that for each oversize SUV or needless pick-up there will be a swathe of carbon capture apparatus to offset the crap!

The IPCC for instance does not even factor in loss of Arctic ice; its computer modelling is twenty years behind the times and not one recognised Ice Scientist was on the panel. Its as if we are suffering from collective stupidity, the Brits cannot handle the Brexit problem, the Americans are saddled with an idiot in the White House.

Heres some exclamation marks !!!!!! and a few more !!!!!

Below is a vid tieing in Prof Peter Wadhams (Arctic Expert) and a presentation in immediate response to IPCC outdatedness / time lag / ineptitude.

Salient points ….

  • IPCC much over complacent.
  • Controversial area of geo-engineering not explored.
  • IPCC contains / embraces discredited modelling ie ice won’t disappear till end of century.
  • IPCC ignores albedo effect ie reflectivity of the suns warming rays instead of worst case being absorbed (think Arctic methane) .
  • IPCC ignores increased melting of Greenland.
  • IPCC not factoring in loss of ice caps.
  • Govts can quote any target for the future, yet we all know theres always a shortfall that is excused away sometime hence…

To contradict the IPCC, reaforestation is in a practical world not feasible; timescale too! But it always makes nice tv to see junior school bods piddling about with seedlings… Germany for instance is stripping forests to get at open cast mining of lignite  … dirty dirty dirty.

Also the bitchiness, obfuscation and sheer downright twattery of Science reared its head when Dr Wadhams chapter on arctic methane was omitted from a written book / presentation for a Conference in China (without informing Prof Wadhams)  because we are told the Harvard Prof in charge did not believe Arctic methane was a possibility !!!  Remember that methane will arrive from three sources, geological, microbial and the release from thawing frozen hydrates; all from vast areas previously frozen we never visit nor can visualise in their seemingly endless expanse, ie East Siberian ice shelf which exists in huge swathes of shallow sea.

Interestingly Stuarts presentation included ‘Villian of the Day’ naming Theresa May in which she has sanctioned fracking and fossil fuel infrastructure; I don’t know details.

 

 

Also, a brief list ….

https://www.scientistswarning.org/

https://paulbeckwith.net/https://paulbeckwith.net/

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/

 

 

 

Watch the ice …

Succinct and direct vid and also illustrates the flow outwards of ice into the North Atlantic. I wld have liked more written text but I assume format precludes, its an intentional brief hit of info.

Note also that its thickness that matters, from above we can still see some of the whiter older ice but at what thickness? Likewise Grenland, likewise everywhere. Here 7th Dec NE England its far too warm this morning, car thermometer tells me 10deg C.

https://nowthisnews.com/videos/future/nasa-animation-shows-arctic-ice-rapidly-depleting

climate change links …

My hope is that anyone stumbling upon this blog of mine will realise its my intention readers click back to older posts to find an unfolding list of useful material and associated serious and valuable websites, I generally only post repeated sources such as news sites hoping otherwise ppl will realise to ‘drill down’ to get the good stuff.

So here I am contradicting myself and posting material that I cannot allow to drift away unread …

https://e360.yale.edu/features/escalator-to-extinction-can-mountain-species-adapt-to-climate-change

Heres an overview of their latest material … https://e360.yale.edu/digest

Thats lots to be reading and a little of something else just found re Arctic warming  …  https://wordpress.com/read/feeds/12481054/posts/2079388346     …. theres some good embeds from Prof Peter Wadhams, I have his book here ‘A Farewell to Ice’.

It is sad beyond words that most of us in the West are now able to lead a pleasant moderately civilised and comfortable life and to see it all taken away by Natures intolerance of human activity. Perhaps that displays how I regard my position in the social or class structure of this country, that I assume automatically that my forbears led lives of hard work, long hours and the niggling fear of what might be around the corner, what might happen next. But maybe I am running to false conclusions, perhaps they were able to gain some happiness or satisfaction contrary to their aching limbs, subservience to an employer and multiple deaths at every stage of life from childbirth onwards?  My arguament would be that it is only in the last few decades where emancipation, workers rights, better housing, personal mobility, education and better conditions at work and access to healthcare have appeared on the scene. Yes, it is only recently we are better off speaking as a working class person.

To discuss Global Warming …

This link below provides a lot of topics for discussion, the primary one being the IPCC falls short of providing the full picture of where we are heading with Climate Change; of falling short of what could be likely reality in the years ahead.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

As I’ve always said (at least from Nov 2017 which was for the first time I switched on to Climate Change) …. the IPCC incorporates large scale carbon capture that has yet to be invented in any serious form and ignores the upcoming effect of methane in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates. Lets enumerate the points and note that I do agree with what Sam Carana has to say which I argue is not bias but reason, the evidence and common sense. When trump as yesterday states that the Climate Change Scientists are being ‘political’ he himself is operating at a totally political and morally unsound position. Every sane thinking person on the planet knows this, the canaries are screaming but trump and his twisted and bitter white old men of the GOP insist otherwise !!!

Let me work through to precis Sams points …

  1.  IPCC has moved the baseline (though I’ve yet to read the IPCC document) …  imagine already how much smelting, burning of coal, steam power had added carbon to the atmosphere already by 1850.
  2. IPCC erroneously applies a straight line projection for whatever lies ahead, in reality its a huge tangle of interconnected self and mutually re-inforcing feedback ever increasing feedback loops. What engineers call positive feedback ie an expotential knock-on and is an upward curve, never conforms to a straight line plot.
  3. IPCC ignores spikes, these causing the really nasty shock effects.
  4. IPCC baseline chosen to wallpaper over the worse view from any other historical baseline.
  5. IPCC playing with the stats.
  6. Anomaly as ocean temperature is at surface and land temp figs as air based figures, this Sam Carana tells us can introduce error.
  7. Method and missing data not embracing latest thinking / developments
  8. IPCC omits temp spikes of 2016 that would have as yet again increased the projected figures and are omitted.
  9. WOW … IPCC does not take into account all the real world happening now events ie snow and ice loss, albedo effect, methanes, last ten year carbon effect, aerosol effect, increased water vapour feedback, jet stream alteration, sea level rise and expansion, green plant CO2 conversion fall off, carbon from wildfires, etc etc. Each single point is so very interconnected and all exacerbate each other.  May I add loss of diatoms and plankton that are major CO2 to O converters as well as being part of ocean weather systems, losing coral reef being a symptom of a the more fundamental crash in ocean food chain, the diatoms. Its time now for a fast tracking approach to science, silly bloody clusters of cagouled junior scientists out on the ice shelf / mass is looking a bit twee; a two year peer review is too slow.
  10. IPCC seems stuck in a time bubble, looking at a carbon ‘budget’ approach when in fact carbon is a massive deficit, a carbon bankruptcy, a bankrupt carbon lifestyle that has to be fundamentally altered (which I doubt we can).
  11. Same old song, IPCC is deficient in abolishing fossil fuels.
  12. Tax or fees needed on polluters. Note the worlds obsession with cheap air travel, polluting gas guzzlers, car based lifestyle (of which I too am some way guilty). In my opinion even electric vehicles are suspect and not as green as we’d like to think.

 

Okay, enumerated rant over. As stated previously, I keep things brief here at this new blog of mine. Human nature being what it is, hubris, the desire for status-objects and lifestyle, recreational air travel, a meat diet … all are near insurmountable obstacles.  There would have to be unwavering catastrophe before affluent western populations realise changes must occur and of course global warming and climate change being what it is ie a cumulative self re-inforcing feedback all change would be too late.

There are three embedded vids at the bottom of Sam Caranas blog, lets listen to the first briefer version of Prof Peter Wadhams wise words (a practical Scientist, a lifelong specialist in sea ice) and pretend not to notice the tedious drawn out intro …

  • IPCC non-alarmist, soft pedalling on feedback machanisms.
  • IPCC pays no attention to potential run-away warming.
  • IPCC by not mentioning a major contributor/s its as if it doesn’t exist !
  • More of the same little sticking plasters or feelgood initiatives are no longer any good.
  • Note that even if we stopped all emmisions ie 100% … its already not sufficient to avert us to catastrophe.
  • World expert on sea ice Prof Wadhams tells us that what the IPCC says on sea ice is ‘daft’. Listen to this crap from the IPCC “An ice free summer once every hundred years”  !!!
  • To approximately quote Prof Wadhams “One would have thought that by now the IPCC would be so embarrassed by its out-dated modelling to have withdrawn that type of approach”. “Pretending the situation isn’t the way it is”.
  • Not a single well-known sea-ice researchers name on the author list from the IPCC.

Lets not forget thawing permafrost and the East Siberian iceshelf.

I’ve thought for years that a condensed print onto paper resume of such talkie vids would save time, get the point across quicker. You can name the app after me …..

It vexes me at the increasing and needless number of ever bigger SUVs and even more expensive cars that my neighbours buy; quite needless as we can hardly assume they are involved in ‘light haulage’! I assume they a) feel they need them and b) are drawn into such a value system. I’ve a neighbour that eats nothing but meat and most others that value a meal at its meat content or its closeness to an oversized burger. Others that thrill at their endless air travel, even a weekend break involves the airport or the insanity of a weekend home a thousand miles away. I’m no angel, far from it but strive to somehow do better, to keep things simple, a lighter carbon footprint and have done for years; at least my work is nearby and I’ve no need to venture more than a few miles.

 

Climate change links …

Heres useful info … http://neven1.typepad.com/

look at the articles linked at right ie …

https://www.iflscience.com/environment/incredible-nasa-image-reveals-how-much-of-the-world-is-on-fire-right-now-/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record

…. well worth an hour or two of close investigation.

As stated before, an idiot in the White House does NOT help. IPCC predictions and modelling is woefully and increasingly off target incorporating by this time large scale carbon capture that has yet to be invented and totally blind to any release of methane in its three forms. Too many scientists and organisations are treading too carefully, a mindset promulgated from the bizarre stance of the trumps disastrous EPA.

All of what I write demonstrates the total control that nature and simple physics, the forces and interconnected systems of nature plays in this film-thin layer of life on the globe of our planet. Even plants and growing things, algae, diatoms, forests etc are acting in ways contrary to our needs, reducing their vital transpiration ie CO2 to O conversion as trigerred by increasing CO2. Whoops we say “Is that the way its really supposed to happen?”

An example of stupidity, these last couple of weeks seen a highly unusual vehicle for these parts an American Humvee type monstrosity complete with ‘HUM’ personalised reg plate.  I can only conclude … you can guess the words. If nothing else an example of money to burn.

In actual practical conclusion, whatever we try to do in minimising affluent carbon lifestyle is firstly not going to be realised as so many are addicted and welded to their outwardly visible SUV dashing around ‘we are consuming’ lifestyle but also once the methane really starts to release (which it will sooner than ten years) our own efforts ie mankind will be quite ineffective. However, to give up, to not fight is untenable; unthinkable. We need a worldwide one child policy, we need to live in a more sophisticated ie ‘simpler’ manner – not a contradiction in terms. Its quite brainless to buy and consume.  Populations must be prepared for the worst, move or starve, flooding, traditional growing areas no longer viable, extremes. Its all happened before in various forms, its just this time we have too much baggage.

Fran Ulmer on Climate Change.

I’m impressed, good speaker and better if left uninterrupted.

This one hour gets through lots of material, worthwhile, the Q&A works well.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran_Ulmer

We hear that existing infrastructure and homes on what was previously stable permafrost are having to be relocated.

At 30 mins we hear of the Russian excitement to open up Arctic seaways.

At 37 mins a considered, honest and realistic responese to the Q of “What is trump doing” …. and I’m glad she mentions that companies, corporation, states, cities are making their own way forward on climate change.

Theres lots, worthwhile !

Also Fran Ulmer : https://medium.com/@StanfordWoods/three-reasons-the-arctic-is-changing-and-why-you-should-care-q-a-with-fran-ulmer-69ada71102cc

http://www.kyuk.org/post/scientists-fear-presidential-administration-will-wipe-climate-change-data-government-websites

 

ps… My previous point still holds, that it would be mighty handy if we could get hold of time indexed transcript for talks such as these, I mean talks that are valuable and worthwhile. Surely voice recognition can convert easily and quickly to that ‘lil old thing called ‘the printed word’ ? On paper too, which I enjoy.

Climate Change links …

I started this blog half a year ago to bring together pithy to the point links and worthwhile material to try and save time for others. It sort of works as I hoped, visitor numbers are woefully low but if nothing else its been an education for myself and a valuable repository.  I bring you only quality material … ie science / pro contributors. Hint: click these film channels to see more.

 

 

 

Above at 05:20 note that the top ten percent on the planet produce 50% of the CO2 emissions. People knock China for instance (and India) but aren’t we lucky the bicycle was their mode of transport for the ordinary, the masses. And to see an Indian train with hundreds cling to the exterior must surely be max utilisation of motive power.