This link tells us of the increase in Arctic methane, so many levers and triggers are tripping and falling in to operation as the once steady state is now on the move.
As this link below stresses and it is quoting Natalia Shakhova, University of Alaska (a world expert) when methane burps it will be exraordinarilly fast, hours, a day or two, not years. And note also the strength of methane over CO2 in a short time frame, I think its 120 fold over a five year period, imagine if that can be possible when its a two day or two week time-frame for the methane to do its work.
Today I’m using my old stack with Firefox and immediately a whole new world of links and information unfolds, I knew fine well my newer purchase of six months ago (Dell with windows 10) was holding me back from getting at the online news and reports that I need.
more to follow.
Arctic methane is the biggie, on a ten year timescale x120 more potent then CO2 … this we know already from many sources online, I mean blogs and material from sensible people not alarmist junk of which the latter I tend to avoid.
Explaining to a new friend yesterday its not just the two and three deg C rise by at my guess 2026 (I’ve a £1k wager on this for 3C+ by end 2026) that will in itself hurt us ie its just a hotter day to endure … BUT its the effect on world interconnected natural systems with locked in feedbacks and associated drives that respond at such fine-scale limits that will alter this biosphere to become un-livable, this literally one thou inch thick biosphere on an eight inch diameter childs football. This is thinner than any layer of modern varnish, more like the old fashioned shellac. Already the jet stream has split into two loops and is streaming hot moist air over the Arctic. My guess is that the end of the greenland ice sheet I quote “By 2100” as bandied in the general press is woefully overestimated; the nature of ice melt is a law unto itself.
Note that of recent years no-one is bandying the expression that ‘nature is resilient’ anymore …
8 inch dia = 8k miles dia of planet Earth
therefore .001 in (one thou inch) = 1 mile approx.
cigarette paper = 0.001 in (copier paper is 0.004 in)
And still diesel drivers idle their engines all day, at work, at supermarkets whilst waiting, during lunchbreaks etc etc.
So much if not all of our CO2 to O conversion shuts down at increased CO2 levels, it does not / can not ‘rise to the occasion’, ie green plants and forests, diatoms, algae. Likewise my particular ‘hobby horse’ and fascination with diatoms is a critical factor, the irony of using ancient deposits of oil and gas mainly derived from diatoms has led to their own and our demise, see also the loss of the symbiotic relationship of diatoms to bryozoans ie coral reef. No-one has ever seen with the naked eye a diatom yet nearly all of our petrol and oil carbon lifestyle is based upon them.
Yikes, ultra creepy temp increase … anything that says by 2100 Greenland Ice Massif will be gone … more like 2026 I’d say. This end of 2026 point in time is when i would think we are somewhere at a minimum of 3 to 4C global warming, you can wave goodbye to anything like a piddling 2C prediction … quite laughable sticking to 2C considering the interconnectedness of natures climate systems and feedback loops. If I’m not correct then I will donate £1k GBP to charities, no quibble. Remember, the accelerating nature of ice melt is working against us, any child knows wake up next morning and it can often be an exasperating sight to see all the ice and snow mostly gone overnight as often happens here in northern England. Realise too that with increased ice-melt the freshwater adds to increasing humidity and rainfall. Therefore no albedo effect ie the reflective nature of a white landscape is lost and ad infinitum heat absorbancy spirals way beyond most publicly available predictions. Permafrost becomes mush, methane tumbles upwards from microbial, geological and thawing hydrate; better sort some space for all the oxygen cylinders we will need.
And then what ?
Heres a pic of what its like up there in NWT … https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/mackenzie-valley-winter-road-closed-1.5064202
Postscript; thinking of ice loss, not even the term logarithmic in relationship to volume decay is applicable when the temperature is rapidly increasing as in the North West Territories cited above, any ‘steady state’ conformity to plotting arithmetic curves or laws of decay goes out the window or into the newly formed lake. Again, thinking of childhood observation of a quick thaw here in temperate England, all the melt seemed to merely sink into the earth itself which in a permafrost situation up north is the last thing we need. So therefore in my mind most ‘predictions’ are invalid, unreal because thawing ice behaves in its own unique way. Its back to what I fear by 2026.
At least i’m doing ‘something’ even if its quite by chance or the new circumstances of my wife passing away three years ago which has enabled me to do things differently, ie much reduced mileage in the car as I’m happier being nearer to home (I’m the ideal profile for an electric vehicle) … washing machine bust and won’t be replaced, plastic bucket and a clothes line do all i want as theres no real dirt or grime to remove. Keeping the computer switched off most hours also helps in several ways, use books more, increase pleasure in sketching, copying, taking notes, memorise things … we don’t always need to be up on the latest news online, theres much human knowledge that is as good now as it was forty or a hundred years ago. I’ve no tv through choice and this suits me, bbc r3 and 4 provide sufficient, no mobile either and I’ve uninstalled the wireless remote heating thermostat. The only modern luxury I wish to retain is my central heating system and the pleasure of a hot bath !
Spinning and tumbling clothes dry here in England can be severely cut back and perhaps eliminated in many households, the washing line does all these things; particularly as these last few years we seldom have the rainfall here in NE England that we used to have.
On bbc r4 this week we had ‘Inside Science’ devote a segment to the prospect of the increasing methane levels in the next few years, Professor Euan Nisbet from Royal Holloway University of London emphasising tropical wetland methane but if my ears are working correctly never once mentioned Arctic methane.
I am assuming tropical methane is a more steady state influence yet the Arctic variety in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates is on an astoundingly high trajectory of growth ie explosions of methane off the chart so to speak.
bbc radio is often a bit wonky and yet another example and shame upon the presentation of the subject.
I’ve blogged on Arctic methane previously, plenty of tags.
One cannot help but feel we are plunged into darkness whilst having just entered a strange new room, our steps are tiny, we will tentatively, timidly grasp at anything.
I find it profoundly irritating (and I refuse to take part) that we have to ‘log in’ to use the listen again facilityfor bbc radio, this is new and a bloody nuisance …
Maybe they got it wrong, 30-40C I think should read F for Farenheit. This is why fifteen years ago I gave up reading the Grauniad and FT at weekends, cos sometimes they are just plain wrong; I used to see this in relation to design, gardening and such matters. Why should I waste my time reading contrived tripe from a junior. Remember, a lot of editorial / articles are there to fill the gaps between the ads or promote some pundit, personality or viewpoint.
At least I hope they got it wrong, at the moment I read Arctic warming as say 10-15deg Centigrade. And remember open sea will now absorb more heat than reflective ice, increased turbulence enhancing the effect of warming the subsea permafrost, also ice now has particles of smoke and a black algal or mold growth that also increases melt rate.
* from Paul Beckwith the first vid below confirms Arctic as of Feb 2018 is plus 30 C
All the same, the Grauniad is telling us (I need to corroborate this from elsewhere) that in Feb they now do not dip below freezing in the Arctic during the night, which really is all we need to know. This is catastrophic …. you’ve got ten years, don’t expect more. Yet still there is climate change denial! Why are ppl so dumbed down?
As Paul Beckwith tells us and many others now likewise the Jet Stream is much altered and has split and loops over the Arctic, again a disastrous development; bringing warm air and moisture to where it should not be. Ocean plankton is not converting CO2 as it did, the Pacific is inedible, food chains are dieing completely. From the median upcurve last year was a dip, so it looks this year 2018 will be the worst ever for fires, sky darkening, reduced crop yield, increased methane release ie geological, thawing hydrates and microbial. And on top of that we have idiots spraying the skies with chem trails that destroy ozone and yes third day running here its another chem trail day.
We read that the Greenland ice sheet will take 500 years to go, I think that is BS … no more than fifty and probably less; we can call it the Swiss Cheese effect. I’m an engineer and am used to looking at things and working intuitively. Rivers of surface meltwater are running fiercely underground and it will soon all melt, likewise in the south the Antarctic where unseen undercutting of the vast ice massif itself will shock us all when it starts folding into the sea bigtime. Its reckoned its at least a global 60m sea level rise. IPCC models are useless, no account of methane and a childlike incorporation of large scale carbon capture that has yet to be invented. You have now entered a crazy Orwellian world, where trump and Scott Pruitt ban the term climate change and global warming is demoted to a trivial tweet. Imagine, trump could build another wall, say around his beloved NY and every other coastal city. Thats why he is so blindly hellbent on getting the wall with Mexico to keep out frantic mass migration and to hand back massive amounts of tax to the already filthy rich, he knows fine well the future is dire with climate change and hence so adamantly will not acknowledge as such. Hitler and Goebbels will be looking up from their special place in hell and thinking ‘Thats my boy’ !
Luckily there are photographs of frozen places and glaciers from a century ago, these illustrate the amount of ice loss. A lot of scientific data only goes back to say the 1970’s or the 50’s.
A spelling mistake on I think CNBC an hour ago … ‘oars are quarried’ !! …. So I sent an email. Makes you wonder if 50% of journalism is just trash. Ores we know are metallic elements and I reckon most are mined. Gives a false impression to the young! Also ‘opencast’ is nearer than quarried if its above surface extraction.
Yesterday Friday was a full day of climate control ie chem trails here in NE England and looking at the brown hue to some phoney clouds I wonder if they’ve been spraying overnight?? Looks like trails a hour or two old merging into haze, not many so far today. We need websites to be logged in to and data to be collected. And a formalised reporting system or screen report card ie number of trails, time when first noticed, weather before trails or at start of observation, duration, effects and the receiving expert can fill in weather fronts and barometric data.
Who would have thought climate, weather systems are so finely balanced, so sensitive and so interconnected! And all have existed for far longer before some squatting proto hominid banged two rocks together somewhere in Africa or Asia. In the next few years people will turn to religion of whatever form, Christ, Buddha, Allah, their ancestors, shamanism, Dao, Tao, nature or hedonism and we’ll see more Bible quotes thats for sure …’As ye sow ye shall reap’ I think is the expression, quite apt actually considering Monsanto wants everyone to adopt their disease and drought resisitant GM crops which will actually be all that you can grow for the ‘lucky’ ten percent that persist.
Note at 09:40 Pauls shows the latest data as plus 30C for the Arctic as of right now.
Youtube often only provides a layer or slice of what is available, successive sessions over days often yields new material as with below.
Here below is another unexpected find and immensely worthwhile too, Paul R Erlich; I have his book ‘The Machinery of Nature’ and finding this vid pushes me to get more of his books. https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_machinery_of_nature.html?id=WpJzAAAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y
Remember:- a rise of 2 or 3C sounds nothing but it is the trigger for a whole cascade of weather and natural world re-jigs, all interconnected and all now set into self re-inforcing feedback loops. Our refrigerator the Arctic has gone, circulation ie Jet Stream is on walkabout and has split into two loops over the Arctic, natural CO2 conversion failing ie from plankton; western lifestyle, sewage, water, electricity, petroleum availability all highly vulnerable as Paul outlines. No wonder trump wants to and is ramping up the Military.
The present aim of Continuous Economic Growth is not sustainable, I personally do not think human kind can be changed, the better off in this world will not relinquish their advantaged lifestyles. We will ‘go down’ consuming.
Please realise though 2C sounds nothing it has triggered along with higher CO2 levels our weather systems to go into a self increasing feedback mode from a previous ‘steady state’ and this planets lifeforms to be severely thrust into turmoil. Polar bears will soon only exist as memory, can you see any bees in summer? We are losing Arctic and Antarctic ice, at the North Pole it is stupidly over-heated and now exists only as water, ie this is now and is plain fact. Constant chem trail activity hinders solar power, destroys ozone, hinders food production. Please … BE AWARE !!!
Note I’m quoting from the last link above … More than 100 previous studies have shown that elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide decrease the nutritional value of plants, such as wheat and rice. unquote.
We need more like this man, Prof Kevin Anderson. He knows fine well his viewers are served well by his quick delivery, in the talk below he gets through lots of points because there are lots of points … its called survival of the planet !!!
He’s certainly bright and like a breath of fresh air; a genuine hero among men.
I implore anyone and everyone to listen through completely the above presentation. He draws in the many factors all feeding into the dilemma of trying to lower carbon consumption when the dangers of hubris, of trump, of the slowness of governments and how the better off in this world are most reluctant to let go of present lifestyle. A good point he makes is realising how our affluent carbon lifestyle, air travel etc is destroying the chance of the poor accessing even a basic supply of electricity. So next time air travel is booked just think how the debit of carbon is hindering someone, a family on the other side of the world. I personally do not think the top consumers can shift their mentality, nor realise the urgency. Its an 80/20 rule and it fits. Likewise, IPCC forecasts and modelling are so ‘out of step’ with real-life data ie incorporating carbon capture when as yet the technology hasn’t been invented for the large scale required; likewise with no IPCC mention of the expected methane ‘time bomb’. Their figures will be shredded to ‘so much confetti’.
Its going to be very difficult to get the World to accept new outlooks and targets, the Economists constant desire for growth in untenable with climate changing so fundamentally. Its a bit like my experience of ‘managers’ in industry, often its always too late.
We need a few hundred more people like Prof Kevin Anderson on this planet. Heres his blog …
For those that can stand a little more reading …. heres a useful quote speaking with Amy Goodman ie http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-27/scientists-issue-dire-warning-climate-change-key-researcher-urges-changes-live/
I quote: KEVIN ANDERSON: Well, if you think about it, the renewable industry itself requires lots of people working in it. But also, we have to retrofit the existing infrastructure that we have in our society. If you look at the U.S., it’s very high energy consumption. That needs to change rapidly. That means retrofitting buildings and properties, people’s houses. It means much greater electrification of the energy system than we see today. There’s just a huge amount of construction work, engineering work, design work. You know, this is about really a 30-year jobs program for all of the industrialized parts of the world to transition from the very high-carbon infrastructure we have now to the low-carbon infrastructure of tomorrow. So, in that sense, surely, if his commitment to the Dust Belt was really a sincere one and he had some innovative capacity, he would see that the climate change agenda is a jobs agenda for the people that voted for him. end of quote.
In other words we need to get ‘on the ball’ and be doing all of this NOW.
Its particulary frustrating as trump is so incapable of any of this, so adamant in his refusal to acknowledge what everyone else knows; that is a statement that sums him up doesn’t it so many ways! Not even trumps usual derisory … SAD… is sufficient to describe the direction he is heading (ie backwards) more accurately CRIMINAL in his neglect and insistence on reacting as if uninformed yet always able to hear and implement the dinosaur oil and coal lobby! The boy that couldn’t read …..
And to contradict trump and his cronies … theres no such thing as clean coal.
From Kevin Anderson above I quote … If … “he had some innovative capacity” unquote, that just about sums trump up, nothing good, nothing positive, nothing created as a step forward for humanity, just a bizarre yearning by a person with an extremely contrived hair make-over to be back in the 1930’s when society was rough and stratified, when greed and impulse were fed quite easily if pockets were deep enough and political ambition fed upon upset and yearning; for the ordinary God fearing person it was not an easy a time to live through and then we had ’39-45. The sad apology trump despises science, data and learning; doing his best to run down, shift or dismiss scientists of the EPA through the Grim Reaper aka Scott Pruitt. I’d describe trump with his refusal of scientific data and learned educated opinion, hatred of minorities and folk of other colour or religious persuasion as a strange repugnant mix of Mao, Hitler and a hundred other despots throughout history.
Be vary of trump wanting a war, he’s doing his best to set nations and beliefs against each other; then as Naomi Klein sagely points out all manner of restrictions and laws will appear that a short while ago would have seemed so unthinkable, so draconian.