quick easy access high quality links and comment re climate change, encroaching fascism, pricking pretension and the obsession of thinking 'we are so modern' …
We need a greater sense of urgency re climate change ie Arctic ice loss, diatom loss (eqiv CO2>O conversion for all terrestial green things).
So much junk is getting in the way, the Tories are intransigent with the state of the NHS, latest Tory sleazeball Nadhim Zahawi somehow carelessly overlooked £23 million quid etc etc and the stupidity of HS2 in this digital age beggars belief, its not anything to do with transporting goods, merely bums on seats.
Both COP extraveganzas last year will amount to little if anything and the IPCC are so backward and emasculated, quite irrelevant to latest scientific thinking. World ice expert Prof Peter Wadhams mostly side-lined/ forgotten.
There are so many realworld momentous changes occurring, interconnected features and feedback loops like a vast chemistry experiment now set into dire motion and a quite unfavourable realignment, a realignment that does not favour homo saps nor most living things of any sort, if diatoms are severely compromised which is the foundation of the marine food chain and CANNOT be circumvented as to their essential contribution then the cards on the table indicate enjoy your life as you can, live a good life but imho 2026 is the line in the sand.
Its hard to know where to start …
Jet stream altering, expect crazy weather patterns and food prodn greatly altered. You can forget burgers.
Diatoms are on the decline, a total loss wld be equiv to all terrestial plants and trees for CO2>O conversion. Google the irony of that … origin of 70% of all world oil reserves etc.
Arctic ice loss, to some extent remains but thickness disappearing fast. One day soon it will all ‘flash melt’ and be gone.
Ice-free Arctic by summer 2023 … looks likely. Place your bets!
El Nino slow to start from the quieter La Nina, looks set to peak with sunspot max 2026… oh dear!
Methane is trickling slowly, as yet quite docile though at historically max levels, we have yet to receive the predicted large releases, as a short term catastrophe much higher effect than many will admit say min x200 of CO2 and one could guess a short term effect x1,000 that of CO2. IPCC is in all respects ‘dumb’ on this; shame upon them.
With inc CO2 or methane all green growing things go into reverse and will not be able to help us when we need it.
Reduction of aerosol masking effect ie ‘going green’ does nothing but inc temperature. The irony of it! Maybe that is why chemtrail is sprayed, but as its mainly nano-particle aluminium (near gaseous in its diffusion) it is non-healthy and imho greatly exacerbates wild fires.
I subscribe to updates from carbonbrief.org and this just arrived in this morning. Makes for interesting reading, and pertinent to these last few weeks wishing this countrys leadership can get back to focusing on climate change, the elimination of poverty and coping with the future.
But lets also remind ourselves of COP26 Glasgow … what did it achieve?
Were the right people invited?
How will COP26 be viewed in hindsight?
In actual effect was it pointless?
One could be certainly justified in saying it was pointless, the IPCC we must remember does not factor in the effects of methane, something that can arrive as microbial activity, thawing methane hydrate previously locked as ice, and subsea ice itself thawing and allowing vent to previously trapped methane fields. Also, I find it erroneous when the multiplication factor of say 80x is bandied around for methane which is a projection over an incredibly generous time frame, in reality with a series of big releases in one season of thawing our time on this planet would be measured in months, and at that timeframe the methane effect must surely be many hundreds that of CO2.
I’ve lain fallow on this for a few weeks following the damp squib of a wasted COP26 Glasgow, to let the dust settle so to speak, to reflect. The IPCC should hang their heads in shame.
The four years of a trump vested interest and an ‘in reverse’ shambles of what could only laughingly be called an ‘administration’ (note I deny him upper case) has not helped this planet or its peoples in any way whatsoever unless of course you are already an exceedingly rich US billionaire; lets face it millions are small change these days….
But trump is not a billionaire, no matter how crooked his schemes and evasions it has still left him hanging on propped up by debt from lenders of near last resort.
I worry about the Yemen, the inexcusable shambles of a deliberately callous Afghanistan withdrawl etc etc
In all this blog of say six hundred posts I reckon my sources are of good quality, will stand to scrutiny and illuminate and educate. Brave people, particularly in the USA, they face demotion or dismissal for speaking like this.
Heres two for climate change …
Note in the above from Dr Guy Macpherson his concern at the big hit from ozone depletion at 02:45 from rising sea level and hence the loss and destruction of nuclear generation (ie meltdown) and hence near instant ozone loss rendering the ‘out of doors’ uninhabitable. Its a chilling quote “The living will envy the dead” at 03:28. My own hobby horse is diatoms and the oceanic plankton that scrub half of the worlds carbon for us for free, all are near or are actually microscopic; trees and land based CO2 conversion will fail us I’m sure and unfortunately the plankton too. We’ve played with a world size chemistry set and it all appears inevitable. I found the link for the above on …. https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/
Here below is disturbing footage, note the blackened ice, note how beavers are colonising further north and flood the land / permafrost with their dams, the catastrophic opening of Arctic ocean seaways with accompanying noise pollution destroying marine mammal habitat and their ability to communicate and organise.
You have to realise thinning can occur from underside as well as from the top. The former I’m guessing will be the downfall of the Antarctic ice shelves as they are levered away from the parent body, its a different set-up down south so to speak.
The action is in the Arctic as we read in the above, the highest and lowest extremes in Siberia at one same location has now set new records and sat imagery shows the depletion and the near non-existance of multi-year ice. You can add my tears to the ever increasing sea level.
Arctic News (arctic-news.blogspot.com) is also a valuable read. Locations such as the shallow Laptev Sea are forever burnt into my mind. I’ve a £1k wager with friend Gary who is a little sceptical of the severity of my forecast that if we have not reached 3deg C or above by end of 2026 then I will hand him £1k cash, no quibble. I don’t want it to be so but we must all realise the severity of what is happening with multiple feedback loops, all self and mutually reinforcing to greater and higher levels, its a lethal chemistry set we should never have set in motion, as if all the ingredients are present and its one big joke to see how we exploit, extract and set in motion the inevitable. If only we could have lived as in a Biblical simplicity.
There are so many factors and components and values feeding into the active equation that is planetary science, remember our space on this spinning ball of eight inches diameter scales at one thousandth of an inch ie 0.001in equivilant to a cigarette paper licked and placed on a childs eight inch toy ball.
There is nothing we do re carbon emission that will take any effect inside of a decade, the latest scares and truths in fact are many, loss of the aerosol masking effect, arctic methane, loss of high altitude cloud cover, and my own pet hobby horse of (near never reported) of the loss of the oceanic plankton particularly diatoms, quite ironic as it is ancient diatoms that form the basis for 70% of the worlds oil and gas supplies.
Arch clown, otherwise now realised to be a ‘stand-up president’ as in comedian namely trump should be tried at The Hague for his four year climate denial, this is a crime against humanity, four valuable years lost.
What would help is a universal one child policy, a move from the American burger culture, to live close to work and abandon your car in whatever form it takes petrol or electric, none of them are particularly green. Everything starts and rests with the individual, I deliberately have hand washed my laundry for the last couple of years, its no problem to me as luckily I have a clean job, here in north east England works fine, a quick wring and the washing line does the rest, none of the endless tumbling and spinning of the electrical machine.
Theres approx five hundred posts on this paid for blog, please explore.
This link tells us of the increase in Arctic methane, so many levers and triggers are tripping and falling in to operation as the once steady state is now on the move.
As this link below stresses and it is quoting Natalia Shakhova, University of Alaska (a world expert) when methane burps it will be exraordinarilly fast, hours, a day or two, not years. And note also the strength of methane over CO2 in a short time frame, I think its 120 fold over a five year period, imagine if that can be possible when its a two day or two week time-frame for the methane to do its work.
Today I’m using my old stack with Firefox and immediately a whole new world of links and information unfolds, I knew fine well my newer purchase of six months ago (Dell with windows 10) was holding me back from getting at the online news and reports that I need.
Arctic methane is the biggie, on a ten year timescale x120 more potent then CO2 … this we know already from many sources online, I mean blogs and material from sensible people not alarmist junk of which the latter I tend to avoid.
Explaining to a new friend yesterday its not just the two and three deg C rise by at my guess 2026 (I’ve a £1k wager on this for 3C+ by end 2026) that will in itself hurt us ie its just a hotter day to endure … BUT its the effect on world interconnected natural systems with locked in feedbacks and associated drives that respond at such fine-scale limits that will alter this biosphere to become un-livable, this literally one thou inch thick biosphere on an eight inch diameter childs football. This is thinner than any layer of modern varnish, more like the old fashioned shellac. Already the jet stream has split into two loops and is streaming hot moist air over the Arctic. My guess is that the end of the greenland ice sheet I quote “By 2100” as bandied in the general press is woefully overestimated; the nature of ice melt is a law unto itself.
Note that of recent years no-one is bandying the expression that ‘nature is resilient’ anymore …
8 inch dia = 8k miles dia of planet Earth
therefore .001 in (one thou inch) = 1 mile approx.
cigarette paper = 0.001 in (copier paper is 0.004 in)
And still diesel drivers idle their engines all day, at work, at supermarkets whilst waiting, during lunchbreaks etc etc.
So much if not all of our CO2 to O conversion shuts down at increased CO2 levels, it does not / can not ‘rise to the occasion’, ie green plants and forests, diatoms, algae. Likewise my particular ‘hobby horse’ and fascination with diatoms is a critical factor, the irony of using ancient deposits of oil and gas mainly derived from diatoms has led to their own and our demise, see also the loss of the symbiotic relationship of diatoms to bryozoans ie coral reef. No-one has ever seen with the naked eye a diatom yet nearly all of our petrol and oil carbon lifestyle is based upon them.
Yikes, ultra creepy temp increase … anything that says by 2100 Greenland Ice Massif will be gone … more like 2026 I’d say. This end of 2026 point in time is when i would think we are somewhere at a minimum of 3 to 4C global warming, you can wave goodbye to anything like a piddling 2C prediction … quite laughable sticking to 2C considering the interconnectedness of natures climate systems and feedback loops. If I’m not correct then I will donate £1k GBP to charities, no quibble. Remember, the accelerating nature of ice melt is working against us, any child knows wake up next morning and it can often be an exasperating sight to see all the ice and snow mostly gone overnight as often happens here in northern England. Realise too that with increased ice-melt the freshwater adds to increasing humidity and rainfall. Therefore no albedo effect ie the reflective nature of a white landscape is lost and ad infinitum heat absorbancy spirals way beyond most publicly available predictions. Permafrost becomes mush, methane tumbles upwards from microbial, geological and thawing hydrate; better sort some space for all the oxygen cylinders we will need.
Postscript; thinking of ice loss, not even the term logarithmic in relationship to volume decay is applicable when the temperature is rapidly increasing as in the North West Territories cited above, any ‘steady state’ conformity to plotting arithmetic curves or laws of decay goes out the window or into the newly formed lake. Again, thinking of childhood observation of a quick thaw here in temperate England, all the melt seemed to merely sink into the earth itself which in a permafrost situation up north is the last thing we need. So therefore in my mind most ‘predictions’ are invalid, unreal because thawing ice behaves in its own unique way. Its back to what I fear by 2026.
At least i’m doing ‘something’ even if its quite by chance or the new circumstances of my wife passing away three years ago which has enabled me to do things differently, ie much reduced mileage in the car as I’m happier being nearer to home (I’m the ideal profile for an electric vehicle) … washing machine bust and won’t be replaced, plastic bucket and a clothes line do all i want as theres no real dirt or grime to remove. Keeping the computer switched off most hours also helps in several ways, use books more, increase pleasure in sketching, copying, taking notes, memorise things … we don’t always need to be up on the latest news online, theres much human knowledge that is as good now as it was forty or a hundred years ago. I’ve no tv through choice and this suits me, bbc r3 and 4 provide sufficient, no mobile either and I’ve uninstalled the wireless remote heating thermostat. The only modern luxury I wish to retain is my central heating system and the pleasure of a hot bath !
Spinning and tumbling clothes dry here in England can be severely cut back and perhaps eliminated in many households, the washing line does all these things; particularly as these last few years we seldom have the rainfall here in NE England that we used to have.
On bbc r4 this week we had ‘Inside Science’ devote a segment to the prospect of the increasing methane levels in the next few years, Professor Euan Nisbet from Royal Holloway University of London emphasising tropical wetland methane but if my ears are working correctly never once mentioned Arctic methane.
I am assuming tropical methane is a more steady state influence yet the Arctic variety in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates is on an astoundingly high trajectory of growth ie explosions of methane off the chart so to speak.
bbc radio is often a bit wonky and yet another example and shame upon the presentation of the subject.
I’ve blogged on Arctic methane previously, plenty of tags.
One cannot help but feel we are plunged into darkness whilst having just entered a strange new room, our steps are tiny, we will tentatively, timidly grasp at anything.
I find it profoundly irritating (and I refuse to take part) that we have to ‘log in’ to use the listen again facilityfor bbc radio, this is new and a bloody nuisance …
Maybe they got it wrong, 30-40C I think should read F for Farenheit. This is why fifteen years ago I gave up reading the Grauniad and FT at weekends, cos sometimes they are just plain wrong; I used to see this in relation to design, gardening and such matters. Why should I waste my time reading contrived tripe from a junior. Remember, a lot of editorial / articles are there to fill the gaps between the ads or promote some pundit, personality or viewpoint.
At least I hope they got it wrong, at the moment I read Arctic warming as say 10-15deg Centigrade. And remember open sea will now absorb more heat than reflective ice, increased turbulence enhancing the effect of warming the subsea permafrost, also ice now has particles of smoke and a black algal or mold growth that also increases melt rate.
* from Paul Beckwith the first vid below confirms Arctic as of Feb 2018 is plus 30 C
All the same, the Grauniad is telling us (I need to corroborate this from elsewhere) that in Feb they now do not dip below freezing in the Arctic during the night, which really is all we need to know. This is catastrophic …. you’ve got ten years, don’t expect more. Yet still there is climate change denial! Why are ppl so dumbed down?
As Paul Beckwith tells us and many others now likewise the Jet Stream is much altered and has split and loops over the Arctic, again a disastrous development; bringing warm air and moisture to where it should not be. Ocean plankton is not converting CO2 as it did, the Pacific is inedible, food chains are dieing completely. From the median upcurve last year was a dip, so it looks this year 2018 will be the worst ever for fires, sky darkening, reduced crop yield, increased methane release ie geological, thawing hydrates and microbial. And on top of that we have idiots spraying the skies with chem trails that destroy ozone and yes third day running here its another chem trail day.
We read that the Greenland ice sheet will take 500 years to go, I think that is BS … no more than fifty and probably less; we can call it the Swiss Cheese effect. I’m an engineer and am used to looking at things and working intuitively. Rivers of surface meltwater are running fiercely underground and it will soon all melt, likewise in the south the Antarctic where unseen undercutting of the vast ice massif itself will shock us all when it starts folding into the sea bigtime. Its reckoned its at least a global 60m sea level rise. IPCC models are useless, no account of methane and a childlike incorporation of large scale carbon capture that has yet to be invented. You have now entered a crazy Orwellian world, where trump and Scott Pruitt ban the term climate change and global warming is demoted to a trivial tweet. Imagine, trump could build another wall, say around his beloved NY and every other coastal city. Thats why he is so blindly hellbent on getting the wall with Mexico to keep out frantic mass migration and to hand back massive amounts of tax to the already filthy rich, he knows fine well the future is dire with climate change and hence so adamantly will not acknowledge as such. Hitler and Goebbels will be looking up from their special place in hell and thinking ‘Thats my boy’ !
Luckily there are photographs of frozen places and glaciers from a century ago, these illustrate the amount of ice loss. A lot of scientific data only goes back to say the 1970’s or the 50’s.
A spelling mistake on I think CNBC an hour ago … ‘oars are quarried’ !! …. So I sent an email. Makes you wonder if 50% of journalism is just trash. Ores we know are metallic elements and I reckon most are mined. Gives a false impression to the young! Also ‘opencast’ is nearer than quarried if its above surface extraction.
Yesterday Friday was a full day of climate control ie chem trails here in NE England and looking at the brown hue to some phoney clouds I wonder if they’ve been spraying overnight?? Looks like trails a hour or two old merging into haze, not many so far today. We need websites to be logged in to and data to be collected. And a formalised reporting system or screen report card ie number of trails, time when first noticed, weather before trails or at start of observation, duration, effects and the receiving expert can fill in weather fronts and barometric data.
Who would have thought climate, weather systems are so finely balanced, so sensitive and so interconnected! And all have existed for far longer before some squatting proto hominid banged two rocks together somewhere in Africa or Asia. In the next few years people will turn to religion of whatever form, Christ, Buddha, Allah, their ancestors, shamanism, Dao, Tao, nature or hedonism and we’ll see more Bible quotes thats for sure …’As ye sow ye shall reap’ I think is the expression, quite apt actually considering Monsanto wants everyone to adopt their disease and drought resisitant GM crops which will actually be all that you can grow for the ‘lucky’ ten percent that persist.
Note at 09:40 Pauls shows the latest data as plus 30C for the Arctic as of right now.
Youtube often only provides a layer or slice of what is available, successive sessions over days often yields new material as with below.
Remember:- a rise of 2 or 3C sounds nothing but it is the trigger for a whole cascade of weather and natural world re-jigs, all interconnected and all now set into self re-inforcing feedback loops. Our refrigerator the Arctic has gone, circulation ie Jet Stream is on walkabout and has split into two loops over the Arctic, natural CO2 conversion failing ie from plankton; western lifestyle, sewage, water, electricity, petroleum availability all highly vulnerable as Paul outlines. No wonder trump wants to and is ramping up the Military.
The present aim of Continuous Economic Growth is not sustainable, I personally do not think human kind can be changed, the better off in this world will not relinquish their advantaged lifestyles. We will ‘go down’ consuming.
Please realise though 2C sounds nothing it has triggered along with higher CO2 levels our weather systems to go into a self increasing feedback mode from a previous ‘steady state’ and this planets lifeforms to be severely thrust into turmoil. Polar bears will soon only exist as memory, can you see any bees in summer? We are losing Arctic and Antarctic ice, at the North Pole it is stupidly over-heated and now exists only as water, ie this is now and is plain fact. Constant chem trail activity hinders solar power, destroys ozone, hinders food production. Please … BE AWARE !!!
Note I’m quoting from the last link above … More than 100 previous studies have shown that elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide decrease the nutritional value of plants, such as wheat and rice. unquote.
climate-change-briefing 