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No10, Boris and climate change.

I subscribe to updates from carbonbrief.org and this just arrived in this morning. Makes for interesting reading, and pertinent to these last few weeks wishing this countrys leadership can get back to focusing on climate change, the elimination of poverty and coping with the future.

But lets also remind ourselves of COP26 Glasgow … what did it achieve?

Were the right people invited?

How will COP26 be viewed in hindsight?

In actual effect was it pointless?

One could be certainly justified in saying it was pointless, the IPCC we must remember does not factor in the effects of methane, something that can arrive as microbial activity, thawing methane hydrate previously locked as ice, and subsea ice itself thawing and allowing vent to previously trapped methane fields. Also, I find it erroneous when the multiplication factor of say 80x is bandied around for methane which is a projection over an incredibly generous time frame, in reality with a series of big releases in one season of thawing our time on this planet would be measured in months, and at that timeframe the methane effect must surely be many hundreds that of CO2.

Revealed: The 11 slides that finally convinced Boris Johnson about global warming

Lets add some substance to this, casting around re methane Al Jazeera have this worthwhile article and vid embed third of four lower down the page … https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/10/27/melting-arctic-ice-permafrost-uncontrolled-global-heating

My advice to COP26 Glasgow…

Get a pin, get a map of the world, place the point of the pin to the location of where your initiative, or project or energy saving or tree planting will occur.

RESULT = merely a pin prick in a whole world of CO2 and impending methane release and the myriad of interconnected self-reinforcing feedback effects.

What frightens me particularly is how puny the COP26 is proving to be, how long dated the deadlines actually are, something as by 2030 or 2050 is laughable …. we won’t be here as a species I fear.

Professor Peter Wadhams a world expert on ice and its demise I quote loosely “In that what is needed is a project many multiple times that of the Manhattan Project and of at least equal speed”

In other words of sufficient scale and speed.

Its a huge ocean out there, six sevenths of the worlds surface, its my opinion many of our solutions will have to be ocean based rather than land.

Will it happen …. I doubt it.

COP26 disaster …

COP26 is a failure, worse than I feared it would be.

Where are the scientists, where are the new ideas, the latest data, feedback projections?

It has dumbed down even below what a weak and blind IPCC could have stage managed.

I predicted a huge backlash to mans intransigence and eternal hubris and boy o boy theres going to be some very angry people, and in many senses rightly so.

Its my opinion the UK Government is delighted we are entering rapid and gross inflation, it will massage downwards the huge spend from Rishi, much of the money being quite un-needed, £10k lump sums to small businesses that didn’t need it and a furlough scheme that I reckon has been much abused and which continued for far too long. Covid is still out there but in many instances its a case of “Covid – what covid?”

I’m not impressed on the performance of bbc radio news on getting detail out on what really matters as we move forward to an unstoppable oven of catastrophe, this will make any war look as a minor scale dummy run.

We hardly hear of the feedback effect of multiple systems all catastrophically amplifying each others effect and eventually the collapse of one another, like a house of cards, in essence negating or destroying each single systems ability to survive; lets throw a few probable eventualities around…

diatoms and plankton will die, are in fact dieing, therefore half of the world CO2 to O collapses. Who mentions this?
the ability of land based green growing things decreases CO2 conversion as CO2 itself increases, never mind methane.
aerosol masking multiplier.
ice gone, particularly the importance of vertical melt.
fact: jet stream now in two parts, dragging warm wet air over the Arctic.
fact: sunspot max for 2026 and transition from El Nana to El Nino coincides!
weather systems will waver and abandon the worlds conventional food production areas.
meat production (burgers?) needs to be drastically curtailed / minimised.
live near to your work.
does anyone consider pollution from commercial sources, diesel fuelled agriculture, construction and the military?
if we are for a fact losing/ have lost insect populations, hence we are losing small songbirds then what if we lose earthworms … that would be catastrophe.
if the oceans are warmer and of greater bulk what of tectonic plate shift?
existing wind and solar depends on established conventional weather patterns, not weather in flux.
we need a one child policy.
methane
methane
methane
etc

Nero himself would be aghast as how we are holding our nerve and blind to what is happening, fiddling with inconsequentials when the big things need to be addressed. The tree problem for instance, unless its evergreen ie the conifer then here in northern latitudes we have a thing called autumn leaf fall, likewise most green growing things, for half the year are near to dormant. The tree thing is difficult in the UK, already near all land is used as is most appropriate, theres not much slack.

Still thinking trees, we only have land surface to play with and most of that being unsuitable, yet six sevenths of the worlds surface is water, therefore in my opinion a solution must be water based / oceanic.

Heres an idea, rather than carbon offset which is in itself an often dubious mechanism we could have death offset, pay poor brown people to die instead of ourselves … mighty quicker than a one child policy! Whoops, gallows humour.

But seriously here is a scientist talking …

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

To the specific page in response to the COP26 cop-out …. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/the-exclusion-of-climate-science-from-cop-meetings.html

Timescale? I just read stuff (preferably by scientists) … year 2026 will I fear be a much different place than where we are now, see the above bullet point list, year 2030 may well have seen homo sapiens much compromised if not near extinct.

Read up on aerosols ….http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html

read up on thermal expansion … http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/thermal-expansion.html

note in the above further down the page mention of ‘hole in sea ice in Laptev Sea 2010’,

The Laptev Sea will become famous for its shallowness and store of methane hydrate now set into melt mode. One could spend day upon day compiling this information, I only hope readers delve further than what at preseent at least at this address appears google presenting an obstacle at seeking out the latest scientific opinion, if it was fashion or burgers or stupid social networking it would be presenting me with a myriad of connections.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/runaway-warming.html

http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

The news.

The news saddens me, as a collective effort we seem so hopeless. For instance….

Pulling out from Afghanistan is insanity, a tragedy, a betrayal of all the lives lost, work and effort on all sides. Methinks quite what is the agenda, the reason for this?

The UK lockdown with massive financial handouts (and remember some folk got nothing ie black economy workers, the inept, and a dear friend of mine) can only trigger a dreadful inflation, but also the money will be squeezed from elsewhere. As shown on the news in the last few days, nurses are hardly rewarded for all their selfless frontline effort; Priti Patel is most reluctant to loosen the purse strings and the police are to get nothing, in effect to recede in income.

Dominic Cummings lurks in the shadows to occasionally be caught in the limelight flashing his traitors dagger, so clever a man with his 20/20 hindsight yet his own tenure often created little more than discord and change for change sake; to rattle and to provoke needlessly. He thinks he is so clever, few others think likewise.

Herd immunity in the UK has crept in through the back door, Matt Hancock would never have allowed it, makes one wonder if it was engineered he would be got rid of for this purpose. He has my utmost sympathy.

Does anyone talk about transmissability and how the young are letting us all down; ie throngs of excited sub-thirty year olds here in the UK insisting on raves and partying for no purpose other than hedonistic thrill once that whistle blew at midnight. A ridiculous sight of people supposedly going on toward adulthood and right on the cusp of the delta variant taking hold. Madness and a sad indictment of Boris Johnson, when books are written he will not look good. My routine of masks, gloves, keeping distance and hand washing will remain. Already numskulls get too close at the checkout, I can see I will be speaking my mind on this.

UK track and trace is being allowed to run rampant, far more damaging than the thing it is supposed to be stopping. Is this the mark of yet another Dido Harding disaster?

UK death stats covid linked are too crude, of those able-bodied economic contributors what is their real number? There needs to be clear demarcation between the fit and those never able to withstand such a dreaded virus anyway.

Because of covid vast amounts of people are behind schedule for treatments, operations, or their cancer being attended to. Its tragic dedicated professionals and expert teams have not been allowed to get on with what they do best.

And why has the need to cope with climate change seemingly fallen off the page? I read little news of arctic warming, ice loss, of permafrost turning to mush and the ultimate extinction trigger of methane release. Theres a trickle of news re forthcoming COP but little else, very little pressure if any for us to change lifestyle and values. Commutes, SUVs, holidays abroad and burger consumption seemingly all go ahead at full tilt.

Forthcoming COP26 in Glasgow will be another melodrama of fine intentions but of insufficient real action. The frustration among scientists and informed individuals must be horrendous and no doubt sadly the IPCC will again demonstrate how deaf they are and how far they lag behind. Poor Greta, she must be tearing her hair out at how hopeless we all are. I’m wondering, the IPCC appear so slow they would be better classified as a ‘historical society’ that only exists to write up, record and ponder long after the event.

ps. I nearly forgot, the travesty of cutting aid from the UK to countries most in need. Can the bods in charge not realise or see in their minds eye how vital this money must be? Scandalous!