Climate change, a laymans guide.

I often feel there is difficulty in finding or locating the latest on climate change ie increasing methane, ice loss, feedback loops etc.

This overview by Sam Carana holds up well, succinct and eminently digestible for the layman; I am a layman.   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

It illustrates the stacking pernicious influences which in themselves arithmetically ensure sufficiently our downfall and even for this guaranteed scenario Sam Carana plays a light touch re the inevitable compounding and accelerating positive feedback loops that will push us into a whole new series of situations. Its all a quite dire mix, highly ironic as its mainly the consumption of oil and gas from ancient diatoms that has led to our demise, taking away the fundamental first layer of oceanic food chain and 20% of the worlds CO2 >O conversion. And yet no-one has ever seen a diatom with the naked eye.

I think I’m correct in saying it was independent scientist James Lovelock that discovered the gas DMS a product of oceanic plankton and its importance. I suggest read his autobiography, an instructive blend of practical science, talent and an independent thinking mind.

Also …  https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/dms–the-climate-gas-youve-never-heard-of/

Sam Carana in a more recent post highlights the disregard paid by the latest IPCC (Sept 2019) briefing / report in which NO FIGURE IS QUOTED for the effects of subsea methane in its three forms, frozen hydrates, microbial, capped gas deposits. The IPCC are criminal in this neglect. However not as criminal as donald trump in the rolling back and eradication of decades of wise strategies to husband the planet more sensibly; but of course trump would know nothing of the natural world.

 

Greenland ice melt.

I keep it brief, we know fine well what is to happen;  I haven’t the patience nor attention span for a fifteen minute ‘presentation’ or anyone droning on with minutae so to speak.

Its obvious already we are into extreme weather events both in ferocity and frequency,   likewise ice melt is heading in a most awful direction, note undersea ice volume as unseen from sat images will soon in a year or two at most surprise us all. Most arctic ice quite horribly is 0.5 metres or less.

Chemtrails are getting clever too, Tuesday morning last before any visible light from the Sun I could see huge definite parallel trails across the sky, I photographed them too with tripod and timer. Also this morning weather sat revealed huge amount of chemtrails NW of Ireland in the North Atlantic heading towards Ireland and Europe. Remember this most likely I am assuming contains aluminium, barium, strontium, etc in nano-particle form.

Therefore I am mindful to ‘keep it simple’ to live a righteous considerate life, gain pleasure where I can, to help whoever I may and am so sorry we are at such ‘interesting times’.

The real big triggers are ice loss, disappearing permafrost and the dreaded arctic methane (say x120 the nastiness of CO2 in the first five years) which are land based and beneath shallow water ie under 50m water depth of the East Siberian Iceshelf, as illustrated on any map of the north polar region.

For Arctic ice google Prof Peter Wadhams. http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/

Look also how near un-reported is the loss of diatoms a particular interest of mine, these being the actual originators of 70% of the worlds oil and gas reserves, no-one has ever seen a single diatom with the naked eye yet to my untrained amateur mind the loss of diatoms is directly linked to massive widespread pacific seabird collapse, coral decline and the probable loss of ocean cloud systems and associated generation of DMS and the conversion of or generation of 20% of the worlds oxygen. By diatoms we can also include other marine / water based algae. Plankton is the next level of food chain above algae, both much neglected as a news item for the general public.

We all know as kids how ice melts, we wake up and next morning its all gone.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/07/greenland-melting-second-time-this-summer-bad/

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

 

 

Methane and climate change – the basics.

arctic-news-blogspot.com in my opinion is the ‘touchstone’ for up to date climate change info. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

Here is a previous post from Sam Carana that explains the methane conundrum / problem / emergency…  http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html

I can read a text based post much quicker and is a more satisfying and efficient experience than listening to a fifteen minute recap of what I could read in a text format much quicker.  Paul?

It is all irreversible, is by its own nature of interconnected climate change feedback loops irreversible. Who would have thought warming ‘dirt’ would be so dangerous!

Note also the demise of diatoms, a particular keen interest if mine; the gas DMS a product of diatoms and algae is fundamental to ocean cloud formation. We think ourselves so slick and clever but our lifestyles are anathema to this planet.

 

We will all know the Lena and the Ob.

Most certainly as these immense rivers bigger than we westerners can visualise every minute every day supply vast quantities of warmed water onto the East Siberian ice shelf, the home of vast up to 20km deep stored carbon in oxygenless ie anaerobic conditions; the perfect laboratory for the production of vast amounts of methane as well as a catastrophic volume of methane ready to blow. The underwater ice cap itself has luckily sealed the methane, that is now going fast as it anywhere and everywhere on the circumpolar map of the Arctic where it shows white or pale blue, theres lots.

We should also realise the rivers Yenisey and the Kolyma.

Its a simple fact even a small portion of this impending methane release will destroy all CO2 conversion as we know it and us with it, last week at last a news story carried re ocean cloud formation and plankton (DMS) … to my mind too little reporting, too light ie no mention of the irony of diatom collapse (see where our oil and gas originated) and CO2 reduction quite futile. As in the link below the IPCC report is way off target (the usual plain underestimation / reduced easier to swallow figures misleadingly put forward) … but hey … why alarm anyone or Governments when we can trundle onwards with half a smile and half a conscience.

Mostly I know where we are going and this latest s/h windows 10 acquisition seems to thwart new or latest links. I cannot listen to Paul Beckwith now, only a briefer zippier presentation could hold my interest. Names I will still google for are Prof Kevin Anderson, Prof Peter Wadhams, Prof Paul Erlich, links in order below.

Prof Kevin Anderson  … https://tyndall.ac.uk/people/kevin-anderson

Prof Peter Wadhams … http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/

Prof Paul Erlich … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich

 

 

Heres Sam Carana ie arctic-news.blogspot.

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/ipcc-report-climate-change-and-land.html

 

And below a screen capture and a link for Siberia, it is big, the biggest landmass and the shallowest iceshelf we could imagine. Yet who in the west until now thinks of the rivers Lena and the Ob? Note vast plumes of smoke from forest fires, zoom in to see the areas alight.

Siberia worldview screenshot 11 Aug 2019 https://go.nasa.gov/2OPxvI4
Siberia worldview screenshot 11 Aug 2019 https://go.nasa.gov/2OPxvI4

I honestly don’t think I’ll be sat here in ten years time, in 2029, its quite impossible; there is just no way basic laws and interactions of physics and chemistry can be thwarted.

 

 

arctic methane.

Arctic methane is the biggie, on a ten year timescale x120 more potent then CO2 … this we know already from many sources online, I mean blogs and material from sensible people not alarmist junk of which the latter I tend to avoid.

Explaining to a new friend yesterday its not just the two and three deg C rise by at my guess 2026 (I’ve a £1k wager on this for 3C+ by end 2026) that will in itself hurt us ie its just a hotter day to endure … BUT its the effect on world interconnected natural systems with locked in feedbacks and associated drives that respond at such fine-scale limits that will alter this biosphere to become un-livable, this literally one thou inch thick biosphere on an eight inch diameter childs football.  This is thinner than any layer of modern varnish, more like the old fashioned shellac.  Already the jet stream has split into two loops and is streaming hot moist air over the Arctic. My guess is that the end of the greenland ice sheet I quote “By 2100” as bandied in the general press is woefully overestimated; the nature of ice melt is a law unto itself.

Note that of recent years no-one is bandying the expression that ‘nature is resilient’ anymore …

8 inch dia = 8k miles dia of planet Earth

therefore .001 in (one thou inch) = 1 mile approx.

cigarette paper = 0.001 in (copier paper is 0.004 in)

And still diesel drivers idle their engines all day, at work, at supermarkets whilst waiting, during lunchbreaks etc etc.

So much if not all of our CO2 to O conversion shuts down at increased CO2 levels, it does not / can not ‘rise to the occasion’, ie green plants and forests, diatoms, algae.  Likewise my particular ‘hobby horse’ and fascination with diatoms is a critical factor, the irony of using ancient deposits of oil and gas mainly derived from diatoms has led to their own and our demise, see also the loss of the symbiotic relationship of diatoms to bryozoans ie coral reef.  No-one has ever seen with the naked eye a diatom yet nearly all of our petrol and oil carbon lifestyle is based upon them.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251

 

 

 

 

Things microscopic …

Exc pic of chalk as per White Cliffs of Dover … coccolithophores.

 

A man that is fascinated with such things and he too talks of diatoms – a vast genus that will prove so crucial to this planets unfortunate demise as we know it, for instance symbiosis with coral reef ie Bryozoans and its the exploitationof ancient oil and gas from diatoms ( 70% originates from diatoms) that with cruel irony is our demise. Diatoms produce DMS a gas discovered by James Lovelock in the 1970’s that is fundamental in weather systems / cloud formation out in the oceans, likewise diatoms provide 20% of the worlds CO2 to O conversion. And invisible to the naked eye. No expensive microscope, a secondhand students microscope set to low mag ie x100 will do all you want.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diatom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coccolithophore

and from the above wiki we get a link to DMS …. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimethyl_sulfide

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_hypothesis

Interesting to see Lynn Margulis, i have a most fascinating book here, beautifully illustrated bought say twenty years ago ‘What is Life’ exploring the ideas of Ernst Shrodinger and his book of three quarters of a century ago. Note Sagan as in wife of Carl.

Another book, important and packed with knowledge is James Lovelock ‘Gaia’ a most incredible Independant Scientist, i’ve also his autobiography a very interesting read, easy too. But the Gai I have here suffers from too much colour in its explanations, more confusing than helpful in many cases. Never mind, i’m sure James Lovelock can hardly be held responsible once the publishers get their hands on it.

coccolithophore
coccolithophore

Thom tells it like it is !

Useful ten minutes from Thom Hartmann, shorter vids are better vids, thanks Thom.

Heres the comment i made, makes sense ….

to quote myself ….

I’ve a benchmark pinned to my kitchen wall, it will be somewhere between three to four degrees C by end of 2026, if i’m wrong and it doesn’t reach that temperature then I’ll donate £1k GBP to the poor and needy (but i cannot see how it can be avoided by say 2030). From what I’ve read the interconnectedness of feedback loops is quite staggering and how very insightful independant scientist James Lovelock was in his book ‘Gaia’ to open this to the layman. I fear Greenland is going to de-ice a lot quicker than the ‘2100’ figure that is bandied about. Air travel, beef consumption and the need for multi-car households are all going to have to be crow-barred from the hands of the affluent west. I fear many will want to continue ‘as is’ until they are gasping for breath, in a confused state and eating basic rations merely to survive. And the rich? ….. maybe its time the rich were taxed a little more significantly. It annoys me at present at the silence from better reporting of the Pacific seabird die-off three and four years ago and near universal omission to mention the role diatoms play both as the base of the marine food chain, symbiosis with the now departed bryozoans and producing DMS and conversion of CO2 to O. As you rightly say IPCC is a most emasculated and lamentable in some respects charade, i realise its better than nothing but do we continually have to be making excuses? They didn’t even include Prof Peter Wadhams re Arctic ice !! The worlds expert.

unquote.

And i forgot to say the IPCC do not even factor in the impending release of methane in its three forms ie geological, microbial and thawing hydrates.