Climate change, a laymans guide.

I often feel there is difficulty in finding or locating the latest on climate change ie increasing methane, ice loss, feedback loops etc.

This overview by Sam Carana holds up well, succinct and eminently digestible for the layman; I am a layman.   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

It illustrates the stacking pernicious influences which in themselves arithmetically ensure sufficiently our downfall and even for this guaranteed scenario Sam Carana plays a light touch re the inevitable compounding and accelerating positive feedback loops that will push us into a whole new series of situations. Its all a quite dire mix, highly ironic as its mainly the consumption of oil and gas from ancient diatoms that has led to our demise, taking away the fundamental first layer of oceanic food chain and 20% of the worlds CO2 >O conversion. And yet no-one has ever seen a diatom with the naked eye.

I think I’m correct in saying it was independent scientist James Lovelock that discovered the gas DMS a product of oceanic plankton and its importance. I suggest read his autobiography, an instructive blend of practical science, talent and an independent thinking mind.

Also …  https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/dms–the-climate-gas-youve-never-heard-of/

Sam Carana in a more recent post highlights the disregard paid by the latest IPCC (Sept 2019) briefing / report in which NO FIGURE IS QUOTED for the effects of subsea methane in its three forms, frozen hydrates, microbial, capped gas deposits. The IPCC are criminal in this neglect. However not as criminal as donald trump in the rolling back and eradication of decades of wise strategies to husband the planet more sensibly; but of course trump would know nothing of the natural world.

 

IPCC and the refusal to acknowledge the importance of impending methane release.

IPCC is wrong.

Just now I heard on bbc r4 ‘Inside Science’ an interview with Phil Williamson  from Univ East Anglia ie https://people.uea.ac.uk/p_williamson   … concerning the latest report from the IPCC in which impending methane release is given very low priority. This is utterly baffling, quite erroneous and I think the placative ‘one metre by the end of the century’ to be shameful in its misleading nature.

There will not be any  ‘end of century’ to witness I am afraid.

Most of what was said I disagreed with from Phil Williamson, for instance stating that coral reefs could re-generate in fifteen years is utter nonsense, yet again no mention of the bryozoan / diatom symbiosis. Diatoms factor into so many perspectives of what we are going through. I may be wrong, merely an interested layman here. However to quote myself …

Diatoms also live a symbiotic relationship with Bryozoans ie the coloured animals that create and live in coral reefs. It is a dire irony that consuming the oil and gas of ancient diatoms ie comprising 70% of the oil and gas industry has led to both their own and our demise. No-one has ever seen a diatom with the naked eye.
diatoms – climate-change-briefing
climate-change-briefing.com/category/diatoms/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diatom

http://www.microscopy-uk.org.uk/micropolitan/marine/algae/index.html

I would have thought last years IPCC Annual Report in which low importance was given to impending methane release (ie thawing permafrost cap releasing already formed methane gas, rapidly rising microbial activity and thawing methane calthrates; both from land and from the horribly shallow East Siberian ice shelf )  would have now been aligned with enlightened thinking but no, its been swept under the carpet yet again by the IPCC and its select band of contributors. In addition Phils endeavour to constantly massage downward the numbers to 1.5 from 2.0 degrees warming is taking things too far, as dangerous as any over-exaggeration, in my opinion from what I read of other scientists 2 deg C will soon come and go, to be overshot rapidly.

Why is it Prof Peter Wadhams was not interviewed, he knows ice, a lifetimes work.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/aug/21/farewell-to-ice-peter-wadhams-review-climate-change

Its the nature of nature to ramp and accelerate as outside influences ie mans fossil fuel greed and polluting activities come home to roost. ‘Ye reap as ye shall sow’ seems appropriate. https://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/Bible-Verses-About-Reap-What-You-Sow/

Sorry to get Biblical but maybe its an ‘endtimes prompt’ because after all as time trundles on what else shall we cling to, occupy our time?

 

 

Work in progress, more info on IPCC obfuscation as info is obtained, merely the opinion of an interested layman.

A few hours later and bbc r4 again broadcasts the radio programme ‘Inside Science’ from five hours previously. Never before have I been so glad of a quick repeat. I feel sorry for Phil Williamson, I can hear in his voice the tension between what the IPCC expects and his own self worth and integrity; he invites others to reach their own conclusions, this I applaud. This also highlights the IPCC to focus on published papers where in fact change is happening SO FAST that published and peer reviewed papers have a self defeating time lag that we now need to circumvent, a view I’ve held since I first latched on to climate change a couple of years ago. Therefore the best we can be sure of is to listen to the likes of Peter Wadhams and for instance Jason Box and Natalia Shakhova.

https://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/blogs/99-russian-scientists-excluded-from-presenting-important-research-as-nasa-goddard-director-tries-to-discredit-observational-scientific-research

From the above I quote …

The event, held a fortnight ago, is still causing controversy beyond the negative tweeting by NASA Goddard Director, Dr Gavin Schmidt. Schmidt aimed his presentation at discrediting the Russian’s work, using theoretical models, without expertise in methane, or credible data. The end result is that the Russian team have composed a letter to Royal Society President, Sir Paul Nurse, asking for an opportunity to present their findings, including contributions from over 30 scientists working in the region for over 20 years.

end of quote.

Also,

https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2017/06/interview-by-nick-breeze-with-dr.html

How the Arctic climate drama runs its course

And …

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/09/ipcc-sea-level-rise-report/598765/

 

The ‘main man’ Sam Carana reports on the limp kow-towing IPCC Report and informs us that the IPCC doesn’t even add in methane from the submerged East Siberian ice-shelf ie what will be a quick warming and vast release of methane from less than 50m of underwater thaw; this beggars belief. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/09/ipcc-report-ocean-and-cryosphere-in-a-changing-climate.html

 

 

 

Northern Canada: +22C when it should be zero.

Yikes, ultra creepy temp increase  … anything that says by 2100 Greenland Ice Massif will be gone … more like 2026 I’d say. This end of 2026 point in time is when i would think we are somewhere at a minimum of  3 to 4C global warming, you can wave goodbye to anything like a piddling 2C prediction … quite laughable sticking to 2C considering the interconnectedness of natures climate systems and feedback loops. If I’m not correct then I will donate £1k GBP to charities, no quibble.  Remember, the accelerating nature of ice melt is working against us, any child knows wake up next morning and it can often be an exasperating sight to see all the ice and snow mostly gone overnight as often happens here in northern England. Realise too that with increased ice-melt the freshwater adds to increasing humidity and rainfall. Therefore no albedo effect ie the reflective nature of a white landscape is lost and ad infinitum heat absorbancy spirals way beyond most publicly available predictions. Permafrost becomes mush, methane tumbles upwards from microbial, geological and thawing hydrate; better sort some space for all the oxygen cylinders we will need.

And then what ?

 

Heres a pic of what its like up there in NWT … https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/mackenzie-valley-winter-road-closed-1.5064202

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/truck-plunges-deline-ice-road-1.3477869

 

Postscript; thinking of ice loss, not even the term logarithmic in relationship to volume decay is applicable when the temperature is rapidly increasing as in the North West Territories cited above, any ‘steady state’ conformity to plotting arithmetic curves or laws of decay goes out the window or into the newly formed lake. Again, thinking of childhood observation of a quick thaw here in temperate England, all the melt seemed to merely sink into the earth itself which in a permafrost situation up north is the last thing we need. So therefore in my mind most ‘predictions’ are invalid, unreal because thawing ice behaves in its own unique way. Its back to what I fear by 2026.

At least i’m doing ‘something’ even if its quite by chance or the new circumstances of my wife passing away three years ago which has enabled me to do things differently, ie much reduced mileage in the car as I’m happier being nearer to home (I’m the ideal profile for an electric vehicle) …  washing machine bust and won’t be replaced, plastic bucket and a clothes line do all i want as theres no real dirt or grime to remove. Keeping the computer switched off most hours also helps in several ways, use books more, increase pleasure in sketching, copying, taking notes, memorise things … we don’t always need to be up on the latest news online, theres much human knowledge that is as good now as it was forty or a hundred years ago. I’ve no tv through choice and this suits me, bbc r3 and 4 provide sufficient, no mobile either and I’ve uninstalled the wireless remote heating thermostat. The only modern luxury I wish to retain is my central heating system and the pleasure of a hot bath !

Spinning and tumbling clothes dry here in England can be severely cut back and perhaps eliminated in many households, the washing line does all these things; particularly as these last few years we seldom have the rainfall here in NE England that we used to have.