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Climate change, ice loss, the future.

Its not very well put actually, Prof Peter Wadhams does okay in his own style but the other two particularly Mark seem not too good with words, I’d have expected greater eloquence, must be hell to get a lecture from them, or maybe I should have been a lecturer myself.

Good to hear criticism of the IPCC, they have a powerful voice and grip on humankinds response to this climate catastrophe and impending mass extinction event.

It rambles and rumbles along, but I cannot share the enthusiasm at the loss of Stuart Scott the previous frontman for this, I always thought he was too much the lightweight, not much presence, too light a touch on the subject to get anyone to notice, too quiet a speaker. Maybe we need more of the Brian Blessed to get these discussions noticed!

Never mind, Mr Grumpy here, no harm intended, it starts very elementary and luckily gets better, salient points are mankinds inability with non-linear change and a hypothetical question at 28:00 that if we fast tracked solar generation into a five year period as how this would help or solve the matter of human extinction. Answer is ‘not really’ … all the changes are now ‘locked in’ to the unstoppable dynamic of climate change and extinction. Not much was made of the methane time bomb but when Prof Wadhams is quizzed into admitting five years as a possible diary marker for a cataclysmic event in my opinion I agree.

E&OE .. merely my personal views, no harm intended, copyright for text climate-change-briefing.com 2021

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IPCC

The IPCC is an organisation I am very sceptical of, the experts are ‘hand-sorted’ so to speak which as we know with the lamentable omission of Prof Peter Wadhams in their last big science-fest a few years ago and so by not publishing his work (the considerations of a world ranking Arctic ice expert) … this means mostly the IPCC can only offer a sanitised and diluted version of what could actually happen to us all.

Heres a case in point of the IPCC not liking the extent of what could occur in the next few years re climate change and how they throw out of the window any modelling that scares or offends them, its bad science, selective science of the worst sort, be sure to look at the chart …

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07/un-climate-panel-confronts-implausibly-hot-forecasts-future-warming

It must be remembered that if we model climate on a childs eight inch football the portion that we inhabit ie half a mile up and half a mile down equates to the thickness of a cigarette paper, one thousandths of an inch which is half the thickness of a human hair… FACT.

This means the chemistry set known as our worldwide climate systems are easily jarred and reactive to new ingredients ie temperature, ocean flow, atmospheric modifications, jet stream modification, ice loss, methane eruption, carbon particles ie dust, the loss of algal activity in the oceans, changing weather patterns over whole continents, etc etc.

In other words ‘crazy cussed stuff’ … such as drought where we don’t want it (lets say Americas grainbelt or Chinas rice bowl) and rain where it should not be for example in the Gobi Desert or the Himalayas (just guessing). Today we hear in the news that California is losing its electricity supply, upstream theres not enough water to power the hydro-electric generators.

Therefore in the above link which exposes the IPCC dislike of what could happen and refusal to accept modelling for a more catastrophic future than they are prepared to admit, I personally go with Sam Carana and fear the temperature rise will be greater than any contemplated by the IPCC, we are being spoon fed only what is deemed digestible by certain experts and vested interest.

What is fundamental to all this forecasting and modelling is that EVERYTHING seems somehow to be involved in a myriad of self reinforcing feedback loops. For instance today we hear on the news that Siberian fires are releasing carbon particles right up into the North Pole, this was easily seen on NASA Worldview a few days ago. Therefore the ice becomes darker, absorbs heat quicker and … BINGO melts faster from above, never mind the warmer water attacking from beneath. It will be near an instantaneous event when all ice ‘flashes’ from the Arctic, an event of probably weeks, months but not decades.

We have to fight, we cannot go down without a fight, but will it do any good? Not really.

It saddens me that hubris, name it what you will, will never un-mend peoples needs for vehicles of any sort which always one way or another carry huge carbon costs in manufacture and huge problems of disposal.

  • We need to live near our work, to walk there or maybe an electric or hydrogen trolleybus.
  • We need a one child policy everywhere. And applaud those with no children.
  • Car ownership of any sort needs to be a rarer thing.
  • Vastly reduce the American style burger culture.
  • Much reduce airflight for personal and even business need.
  • Minimise food waste, ie see your supermarket near closing, trolleyfulls of meat for disposal!
  • Only eat what you need.
  • Look at the footprint for concrete as a building material.
  • Look at the longevity of wind production, not so green.
  • etc etc name anything you like, there will be a downside to it!

If we lived ‘biblically’ simple farmers and traders and craftspeople I’m sure we would not be in this mess.

Will any of the above bullet points help us all … not really.

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Global warming.

This is indeed something the IPCC (ie a worldwide ‘formal’ association and so-called working group of bods pertinent to governments, policy, forecasting and climate change) which in reality lags way behind in vision and of forecasting the dreaded consequences of global warming.

So many crashes and disasters seem so under-reported and under-recognised, for instance to name just a few topics …. the Arctic, jet stream, diatoms, algae, plankton, marine food chain, loss of seabirds, loss of salmon, loss of bees, flying insects, decreasing soil health and microbial activity, methane, importance of ocean algae for DMS and oceanic weather systems, even the decline of the beloved wasp!

In my own garden and at a nature reserve I have visited near daily for decades I’m sure theres less bees and flying insects, hoverflies, Vanessids etc. At the rear of this house two out of three birdboxes have been taken over by bees these last couple of years, my ‘unusual’ garden providing lots of flowering plants and shrubs for them, all intentional. Say March to July I’m actually not in the further reaches of my back garden as I want nesting birds and fledglings to feel undisturbed, apart of course from the dreaded hawk that even last night whizzed past my head and I think had caused problems for the blackbirds, a single adult blackbird clucking the alarm call for more than twenty minutes, I’m guessing as much distress as warning to others. I even a few years ago witnessed a queen fly her flightless workers into the birdbox one by one, carried ‘piggy-back’ from the shrubbery and vegetation at the far edge of the lawn, a sight I’ll never forget. She must have brought them in by stages, grouped for the final hurdle into the birdbox. So that is no problem, I’ll stick another couple of birdboxes up soon, made by me of thicker heavier section wood than anything one can usually buy.

The IPCC seems slow and stagnant on everything. From my viewpoint as merely an interested layman I don’t think there is anything that the IPCC is not woefully slow or blind to at present nor cognisant of the fast happening realtime changes, Governmental deficiencies and their consequences. For instance its near impossible to find mention online of the diatom/ bryozoan symbiosis that constitutes a living coral reef, all we ever hear is ‘coral whitening’ but no practical explanations for the ‘mechanics’ for this to occur, why the bryozoans have perished. To my mind the great IPCC sticking point and the professionals that comprise its panels and working groups is the spectre of potentially losing ‘funding’ for speaking out or being avoided and shut out by colleagues. From what I’ve read the IPCC also seems unable to realise the importance of the interconnectedness of feedback loops, Sam Carana mentions this regularly. An example, increased CO2 triggers plants to reduce conversion of CO2 to O …. and their pollen becomes less nuitritional / of value to bees and insects and I think I’m right in saying there is a decrease in nuitritional of green plant food material to humans and animals as a food source. Happy days!

At least some of our best brains do their best to get ahead on the subject …. Arctic News: Heatwaves and the danger of the Arctic Ocean heating up (arctic-news.blogspot.com)

This is from the above link, if this doesn’t grab attention and motivate then nothing will.

Heres a vid below I’m adding a day later, my heart goes out to all the people and animals and whatever that are stuck with these horribly high temperatures. With the attendant drought we wonder if west coast living might become a thing of the past. We can assume as summer rolls on wildfire will set new records, setting more ash and soot onto the surface of arctic ice and melting it even quicker, the big time bomb (of many) in my mind will be when we lose most of the ice as presently visible by satellite, ice extent is still quite considerable but it is thickness that is rapidly decreasing, ie multi-year ice is fast diminishing.

These temperatures are actually beyond what humans can survive, the phenomena ‘wet bulb temperature’ I first read on Sam Caranas arctic-news.blogspot.com an invaluable information source and my ‘go to’ for anything climate change. Arctic News: It could be unbearably hot in many places within a few years time (arctic-news.blogspot.com)

The vid, a news report …. Western US in grips of hottest, driest summer in 1000 years? | DW News – YouTube

Heres the wiki explaining wet bulb temperature and its dangers …. Wet-bulb temperature – Wikipedia

postscript, this is a worthwhile read ….. Climate-Change Summary – Nature Bats Last (guymcpherson.com)

Climate change, a laymans guide.

I often feel there is difficulty in finding or locating the latest on climate change ie increasing methane, ice loss, feedback loops etc.

This overview by Sam Carana holds up well, succinct and eminently digestible for the layman; I am a layman.   http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

It illustrates the stacking pernicious influences which in themselves arithmetically ensure sufficiently our downfall and even for this guaranteed scenario Sam Carana plays a light touch re the inevitable compounding and accelerating positive feedback loops that will push us into a whole new series of situations. Its all a quite dire mix, highly ironic as its mainly the consumption of oil and gas from ancient diatoms that has led to our demise, taking away the fundamental first layer of oceanic food chain and 20% of the worlds CO2 >O conversion. And yet no-one has ever seen a diatom with the naked eye.

I think I’m correct in saying it was independent scientist James Lovelock that discovered the gas DMS a product of oceanic plankton and its importance. I suggest read his autobiography, an instructive blend of practical science, talent and an independent thinking mind.

Also …  https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/dms–the-climate-gas-youve-never-heard-of/

Sam Carana in a more recent post highlights the disregard paid by the latest IPCC (Sept 2019) briefing / report in which NO FIGURE IS QUOTED for the effects of subsea methane in its three forms, frozen hydrates, microbial, capped gas deposits. The IPCC are criminal in this neglect. However not as criminal as donald trump in the rolling back and eradication of decades of wise strategies to husband the planet more sensibly; but of course trump would know nothing of the natural world.

 

IPCC and the refusal to acknowledge the importance of impending methane release.

IPCC is wrong.

Just now I heard on bbc r4 ‘Inside Science’ an interview with Phil Williamson  from Univ East Anglia ie https://people.uea.ac.uk/p_williamson   … concerning the latest report from the IPCC in which impending methane release is given very low priority. This is utterly baffling, quite erroneous and I think the placative ‘one metre by the end of the century’ to be shameful in its misleading nature.

There will not be any  ‘end of century’ to witness I am afraid.

Most of what was said I disagreed with from Phil Williamson, for instance stating that coral reefs could re-generate in fifteen years is utter nonsense, yet again no mention of the bryozoan / diatom symbiosis. Diatoms factor into so many perspectives of what we are going through. I may be wrong, merely an interested layman here. However to quote myself …

Diatoms also live a symbiotic relationship with Bryozoans ie the coloured animals that create and live in coral reefs. It is a dire irony that consuming the oil and gas of ancient diatoms ie comprising 70% of the oil and gas industry has led to both their own and our demise. No-one has ever seen a diatom with the naked eye.
diatoms – climate-change-briefing
climate-change-briefing.com/category/diatoms/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diatom

http://www.microscopy-uk.org.uk/micropolitan/marine/algae/index.html

I would have thought last years IPCC Annual Report in which low importance was given to impending methane release (ie thawing permafrost cap releasing already formed methane gas, rapidly rising microbial activity and thawing methane calthrates; both from land and from the horribly shallow East Siberian ice shelf )  would have now been aligned with enlightened thinking but no, its been swept under the carpet yet again by the IPCC and its select band of contributors. In addition Phils endeavour to constantly massage downward the numbers to 1.5 from 2.0 degrees warming is taking things too far, as dangerous as any over-exaggeration, in my opinion from what I read of other scientists 2 deg C will soon come and go, to be overshot rapidly.

Why is it Prof Peter Wadhams was not interviewed, he knows ice, a lifetimes work.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/aug/21/farewell-to-ice-peter-wadhams-review-climate-change

Its the nature of nature to ramp and accelerate as outside influences ie mans fossil fuel greed and polluting activities come home to roost. ‘Ye reap as ye shall sow’ seems appropriate. https://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/Bible-Verses-About-Reap-What-You-Sow/

Sorry to get Biblical but maybe its an ‘endtimes prompt’ because after all as time trundles on what else shall we cling to, occupy our time?

 

 

Work in progress, more info on IPCC obfuscation as info is obtained, merely the opinion of an interested layman.

A few hours later and bbc r4 again broadcasts the radio programme ‘Inside Science’ from five hours previously. Never before have I been so glad of a quick repeat. I feel sorry for Phil Williamson, I can hear in his voice the tension between what the IPCC expects and his own self worth and integrity; he invites others to reach their own conclusions, this I applaud. This also highlights the IPCC to focus on published papers where in fact change is happening SO FAST that published and peer reviewed papers have a self defeating time lag that we now need to circumvent, a view I’ve held since I first latched on to climate change a couple of years ago. Therefore the best we can be sure of is to listen to the likes of Peter Wadhams and for instance Jason Box and Natalia Shakhova.

https://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/blogs/99-russian-scientists-excluded-from-presenting-important-research-as-nasa-goddard-director-tries-to-discredit-observational-scientific-research

From the above I quote …

The event, held a fortnight ago, is still causing controversy beyond the negative tweeting by NASA Goddard Director, Dr Gavin Schmidt. Schmidt aimed his presentation at discrediting the Russian’s work, using theoretical models, without expertise in methane, or credible data. The end result is that the Russian team have composed a letter to Royal Society President, Sir Paul Nurse, asking for an opportunity to present their findings, including contributions from over 30 scientists working in the region for over 20 years.

end of quote.

Also,

https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2017/06/interview-by-nick-breeze-with-dr.html

How the Arctic climate drama runs its course

And …

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/09/ipcc-sea-level-rise-report/598765/

 

The ‘main man’ Sam Carana reports on the limp kow-towing IPCC Report and informs us that the IPCC doesn’t even add in methane from the submerged East Siberian ice-shelf ie what will be a quick warming and vast release of methane from less than 50m of underwater thaw; this beggars belief. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/09/ipcc-report-ocean-and-cryosphere-in-a-changing-climate.html

 

 

 

Northern Canada: +22C when it should be zero.

Yikes, ultra creepy temp increase  … anything that says by 2100 Greenland Ice Massif will be gone … more like 2026 I’d say. This end of 2026 point in time is when i would think we are somewhere at a minimum of  3 to 4C global warming, you can wave goodbye to anything like a piddling 2C prediction … quite laughable sticking to 2C considering the interconnectedness of natures climate systems and feedback loops. If I’m not correct then I will donate £1k GBP to charities, no quibble.  Remember, the accelerating nature of ice melt is working against us, any child knows wake up next morning and it can often be an exasperating sight to see all the ice and snow mostly gone overnight as often happens here in northern England. Realise too that with increased ice-melt the freshwater adds to increasing humidity and rainfall. Therefore no albedo effect ie the reflective nature of a white landscape is lost and ad infinitum heat absorbancy spirals way beyond most publicly available predictions. Permafrost becomes mush, methane tumbles upwards from microbial, geological and thawing hydrate; better sort some space for all the oxygen cylinders we will need.

And then what ?

 

Heres a pic of what its like up there in NWT … https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/mackenzie-valley-winter-road-closed-1.5064202

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/truck-plunges-deline-ice-road-1.3477869

 

Postscript; thinking of ice loss, not even the term logarithmic in relationship to volume decay is applicable when the temperature is rapidly increasing as in the North West Territories cited above, any ‘steady state’ conformity to plotting arithmetic curves or laws of decay goes out the window or into the newly formed lake. Again, thinking of childhood observation of a quick thaw here in temperate England, all the melt seemed to merely sink into the earth itself which in a permafrost situation up north is the last thing we need. So therefore in my mind most ‘predictions’ are invalid, unreal because thawing ice behaves in its own unique way. Its back to what I fear by 2026.

At least i’m doing ‘something’ even if its quite by chance or the new circumstances of my wife passing away three years ago which has enabled me to do things differently, ie much reduced mileage in the car as I’m happier being nearer to home (I’m the ideal profile for an electric vehicle) …  washing machine bust and won’t be replaced, plastic bucket and a clothes line do all i want as theres no real dirt or grime to remove. Keeping the computer switched off most hours also helps in several ways, use books more, increase pleasure in sketching, copying, taking notes, memorise things … we don’t always need to be up on the latest news online, theres much human knowledge that is as good now as it was forty or a hundred years ago. I’ve no tv through choice and this suits me, bbc r3 and 4 provide sufficient, no mobile either and I’ve uninstalled the wireless remote heating thermostat. The only modern luxury I wish to retain is my central heating system and the pleasure of a hot bath !

Spinning and tumbling clothes dry here in England can be severely cut back and perhaps eliminated in many households, the washing line does all these things; particularly as these last few years we seldom have the rainfall here in NE England that we used to have.