I subscribe to updates from carbonbrief.org and this just arrived in this morning. Makes for interesting reading, and pertinent to these last few weeks wishing this countrys leadership can get back to focusing on climate change, the elimination of poverty and coping with the future.
But lets also remind ourselves of COP26 Glasgow … what did it achieve?
Were the right people invited?
How will COP26 be viewed in hindsight?
In actual effect was it pointless?
One could be certainly justified in saying it was pointless, the IPCC we must remember does not factor in the effects of methane, something that can arrive as microbial activity, thawing methane hydrate previously locked as ice, and subsea ice itself thawing and allowing vent to previously trapped methane fields. Also, I find it erroneous when the multiplication factor of say 80x is bandied around for methane which is a projection over an incredibly generous time frame, in reality with a series of big releases in one season of thawing our time on this planet would be measured in months, and at that timeframe the methane effect must surely be many hundreds that of CO2.
I’ve lain fallow on this for a few weeks following the damp squib of a wasted COP26 Glasgow, to let the dust settle so to speak, to reflect. The IPCC should hang their heads in shame.
The four years of a trump vested interest and an ‘in reverse’ shambles of what could only laughingly be called an ‘administration’ (note I deny him upper case) has not helped this planet or its peoples in any way whatsoever unless of course you are already an exceedingly rich US billionaire; lets face it millions are small change these days….
But trump is not a billionaire, no matter how crooked his schemes and evasions it has still left him hanging on propped up by debt from lenders of near last resort.
I worry about the Yemen, the inexcusable shambles of a deliberately callous Afghanistan withdrawl etc etc
In all this blog of say six hundred posts I reckon my sources are of good quality, will stand to scrutiny and illuminate and educate. Brave people, particularly in the USA, they face demotion or dismissal for speaking like this.
Heres two for climate change …
Note in the above from Dr Guy Macpherson his concern at the big hit from ozone depletion at 02:45 from rising sea level and hence the loss and destruction of nuclear generation (ie meltdown) and hence near instant ozone loss rendering the ‘out of doors’ uninhabitable. Its a chilling quote “The living will envy the dead” at 03:28. My own hobby horse is diatoms and the oceanic plankton that scrub half of the worlds carbon for us for free, all are near or are actually microscopic; trees and land based CO2 conversion will fail us I’m sure and unfortunately the plankton too. We’ve played with a world size chemistry set and it all appears inevitable. I found the link for the above on …. https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/
Here below is disturbing footage, note the blackened ice, note how beavers are colonising further north and flood the land / permafrost with their dams, the catastrophic opening of Arctic ocean seaways with accompanying noise pollution destroying marine mammal habitat and their ability to communicate and organise.
One country India should not have been allowed to water down the COP26 statement re coal use, the general concensus and plain common sense dictates how we should proceed. Its no use the individual doing his or her best to minimise carbon footprint when its the big emitters and industries that must offer clout and crunch the big numbers.
A statement, merely something on paper, this is what men in suits do best, when will the scientists and engineers be given chance to show their best? I think an alternative to COP needs to be instigated, I would hope such a thing is happening right now. But if you read and listen to tone and the possible outcome of many experts on this, those at the sharp end with knowledge, direct observation and data they too think as I do that a vast chemistry set of reactions has been set in motion and I doubt theres much we can do. For instance look at jet stream, arctic warming, Greenland ice melt, ocean plankton, etc etc.
COP26 was feeble, an obfuscation, fiddling whilst Rome burns.
In all practicality with impending arctic methane and the interconnectedness of amplifying feedbacks its all just window dressing so to speak but as responsible adults and responsible nations we must do our best, we must never give up on this. Though it would be useful to think we could look back and think we did our best the scene set is not good and immediate practical effect of our efforts looks very poor indeed. One point five will soon look irrelevant to everyone, it will blow away in the breeze, but if it helps minds focus then so be it.
Watching silly billionaires pour their money into junk spaceflights and super yachts is uncomfortable to watch; shame upon them, pity we couldn’t boycott their activities, I never have been keen on Amazon anyway. A glorified shopkeeper!
note in the above the heat over vast at present still withheld gas reserves in northern Canada and likewise the heat exactly over the shallow Laptev Sea ie northern Siberia. In time and we are already in my opinion at that point the Arctic instead of cooling the planet will become a vast engine, an agency of heating, our enemy so to speak. Its only in recent years scientists are working out the worlds water circulation into the Arctic, the importance and danger between fresh and saline, warm and cold.
Ice is funny stuff, once huge bodies of it ie the Greenland ice sheet is most obviously melting with endless melt pools and rivers falling thousands of feet into the interior of the ice massif then theres nothing that in all practicality can be done to halt this process. In pure vengeance I’d like to winch trump and his cronies beneath a helicopter and dump them in the middle of the fast thawing wilderness, a childish idea perhaps, but for the harm and delay they have caused I think perfectly justifiable.
Watch out for methane which exists in three forms, vast trapped reserves, subsea frozen hydrate and as the result of a warming of ancient carbon deposits now being prompted to microbial activity. As repeated already the irony of burning ancient diatomaceous oil and associated gas deposits has led to their oceanic demise, thats half of the world CO2 conversion gone, increasing CO2 also means trees and green land based CO2 conversion activity will also decrease, its their natural reaction. Fun times ahead.
postscript, please read arctic-news.blogspot … here i copy and paste re methane and the IPCC total refusal to acknowledge its importance or apparently its existence !!!
copy and paste …”One of the largest threats is seafloor methane and despite repeated warning from some of the best experts in the field, the IPCC simply waves away this threat. This and other elements in the bar have been discussed in detail in many earlier posts such as this one and on the extinction page.”
COP26 is a failure, worse than I feared it would be.
Where are the scientists, where are the new ideas, the latest data, feedback projections?
It has dumbed down even below what a weak and blind IPCC could have stage managed.
I predicted a huge backlash to mans intransigence and eternal hubris and boy o boy theres going to be some very angry people, and in many senses rightly so.
Its my opinion the UK Government is delighted we are entering rapid and gross inflation, it will massage downwards the huge spend from Rishi, much of the money being quite un-needed, £10k lump sums to small businesses that didn’t need it and a furlough scheme that I reckon has been much abused and which continued for far too long. Covid is still out there but in many instances its a case of “Covid – what covid?”
I’m not impressed on the performance of bbc radio news on getting detail out on what really matters as we move forward to an unstoppable oven of catastrophe, this will make any war look as a minor scale dummy run.
We hardly hear of the feedback effect of multiple systems all catastrophically amplifying each others effect and eventually the collapse of one another, like a house of cards, in essence negating or destroying each single systems ability to survive; lets throw a few probable eventualities around…
diatoms and plankton will die, are in fact dieing, therefore half of the world CO2 to O collapses. Who mentions this?
the ability of land based green growing things decreases CO2 conversion as CO2 itself increases, never mind methane.
aerosol masking multiplier.
ice gone, particularly the importance of vertical melt.
fact: jet stream now in two parts, dragging warm wet air over the Arctic.
fact: sunspot max for 2026 and transition from El Nana to El Nino coincides!
weather systems will waver and abandon the worlds conventional food production areas.
meat production (burgers?) needs to be drastically curtailed / minimised.
live near to your work.
does anyone consider pollution from commercial sources, diesel fuelled agriculture, construction and the military?
if we are for a fact losing/ have lost insect populations, hence we are losing small songbirds then what if we lose earthworms … that would be catastrophe.
if the oceans are warmer and of greater bulk what of tectonic plate shift?
existing wind and solar depends on established conventional weather patterns, not weather in flux.
we need a one child policy.
Nero himself would be aghast as how we are holding our nerve and blind to what is happening, fiddling with inconsequentials when the big things need to be addressed. The tree problem for instance, unless its evergreen ie the conifer then here in northern latitudes we have a thing called autumn leaf fall, likewise most green growing things, for half the year are near to dormant. The tree thing is difficult in the UK, already near all land is used as is most appropriate, theres not much slack.
Still thinking trees, we only have land surface to play with and most of that being unsuitable, yet six sevenths of the worlds surface is water, therefore in my opinion a solution must be water based / oceanic.
Heres an idea, rather than carbon offset which is in itself an often dubious mechanism we could have death offset, pay poor brown people to die instead of ourselves … mighty quicker than a one child policy! Whoops, gallows humour.
Timescale? I just read stuff (preferably by scientists) … year 2026 will I fear be a much different place than where we are now, see the above bullet point list, year 2030 may well have seen homo sapiens much compromised if not near extinct.
note in the above further down the page mention of ‘hole in sea ice in Laptev Sea 2010’,
The Laptev Sea will become famous for its shallowness and store of methane hydrate now set into melt mode. One could spend day upon day compiling this information, I only hope readers delve further than what at preseent at least at this address appears google presenting an obstacle at seeking out the latest scientific opinion, if it was fashion or burgers or stupid social networking it would be presenting me with a myriad of connections.
Another fun ingredient to add to the tally of global warming events and I’m assuming will rear its ugly head sooner or later, how else can it be, as explained below if the weight of ice disappears from Greenland than how else can the ground itself react but readjust its tectonic plate structure. Likewise subsea landslides are a real danger.
Not much seems forthcoming on this subject of tectonic plate readjustment / movement, maybe google is sometimes a hindrance than a boon? Or maybe articles pitched at the ‘layman’ aren’t so abundant? The achademic three year peer review system needs drastically to be shortened, we haven’t time.
Anyway, to read it and it is five minutes well spent. As always I hold self-education as vital, just like as in the olden days ….
A couple of days ago we hear on bbc radio news that experts announce that the German and European floods could well be a sign of climate change. Wow, that is a serious under-reaction to ever increasing problems.
A petty grumble of mine but what really pips my noodle is cars especially diesel SUVs idling over in supermarket car parks whilst ‘the other half’ gets the shopping in ….. GRRRR !
Second grumble of the day is how lagging the IPCC are in all this, as if not wanting to upset anyone, they are supposed to be predicting the future and to motivate a worldwide response by scientists, engineers, governments, individuals etc. When a bomb was involved it was the Manhattan project, we need that seriousness of response multiple times over as well as vastly reducing our own personal carbon footprints, maybe its fruitless in actual reality but we cannot go down without a fight.
Aljazeera writes achingly sad re the famine in Madagascar, as when I read of the mass starvation during the Chinese Great Leap Forward and then the Cultural Revolution of people reduced to trying to eat scraps of leather or trying to scavenge nuts or berries that they know fine well is slowly killing them then we know the situation is bad, is irreversible for them. I think I shall be making my Christmas charity donations in the next few days. Interestingly a few years ago I learnt that in the Moslem world a working adult will contribute 1/40 of their income as charity contribution each year, I think a lot of us should work by that example and perhaps the tragedy of Yemen, Madagascar, refugees etc may find some relief from their plight.
The IPCC is an organisation I am very sceptical of, the experts are ‘hand-sorted’ so to speak which as we know with the lamentable omission of Prof Peter Wadhams in their last big science-fest a few years ago and so by not publishing his work (the considerations of a world ranking Arctic ice expert) … this means mostly the IPCC can only offer a sanitised and diluted version of what could actually happen to us all.
Heres a case in point of the IPCC not liking the extent of what could occur in the next few years re climate change and how they throw out of the window any modelling that scares or offends them, its bad science, selective science of the worst sort, be sure to look at the chart …
It must be remembered that if we model climate on a childs eight inch football the portion that we inhabit ie half a mile up and half a mile down equates to the thickness of a cigarette paper, one thousandths of an inch which is half the thickness of a human hair… FACT.
This means the chemistry set known as our worldwide climate systems are easily jarred and reactive to new ingredients ie temperature, ocean flow, atmospheric modifications, jet stream modification, ice loss, methane eruption, carbon particles ie dust, the loss of algal activity in the oceans, changing weather patterns over whole continents, etc etc.
In other words ‘crazy cussed stuff’ … such as drought where we don’t want it (lets say Americas grainbelt or Chinas rice bowl) and rain where it should not be for example in the Gobi Desert or the Himalayas (just guessing). Today we hear in the news that California is losing its electricity supply, upstream theres not enough water to power the hydro-electric generators.
Therefore in the above link which exposes the IPCC dislike of what could happen andrefusal to accept modelling for a more catastrophic future than they are prepared to admit, I personally go with Sam Carana and fear the temperature rise will be greater than any contemplated by the IPCC, we are being spoon fed only what is deemed digestible by certain experts and vested interest.
What is fundamental to all this forecasting and modelling is that EVERYTHING seems somehow to be involved in a myriad of self reinforcing feedback loops. For instance today we hear on the news that Siberian fires are releasing carbon particles right up into the North Pole, this was easily seen on NASA Worldview a few days ago. Therefore the ice becomes darker, absorbs heat quicker and … BINGO melts faster from above, never mind the warmer water attacking from beneath. It will be near an instantaneous event when all ice ‘flashes’ from the Arctic, an event of probably weeks, months but not decades.
We have to fight, we cannot go down without a fight, but will it do any good? Not really.
It saddens me that hubris, name it what you will, will never un-mend peoples needs for vehicles of any sort which always one way or another carry huge carbon costs in manufacture and huge problems of disposal.
We need to live near our work, to walk there or maybe an electric or hydrogen trolleybus.
We need a one child policy everywhere. And applaud those with no children.
Car ownership of any sort needs to be a rarer thing.
Vastly reduce the American style burger culture.
Much reduce airflight for personal and even business need.
Minimise food waste, ie see your supermarket near closing, trolleyfulls of meat for disposal!
Only eat what you need.
Look at the footprint for concrete as a building material.
Look at the longevity of wind production, not so green.
etc etc name anything you like, there will be a downside to it!
If we lived ‘biblically’ simple farmers and traders and craftspeople I’m sure we would not be in this mess.
Will any of the above bullet points help us all … not really.
From very little these last few months lately they are becoming more easily seen ie what can be construed as chemtrail. This blog here of mine has lots of chemtrail diary and photographs for the previous two or three years. Google searches indicate i am the UKs most prolific blogger on these things, maybe thats why theres little for me to photograph or record this last half year.
Many if not most people will not acknowledge the chemtrail phenomena, but ask any Californian, they get lots, likewise from NASA Worldview places to look are English Channel, Irish Sea, Isle of Man and Cumbria, also North Sea, Dogger Bank. Biscay used to get lots and into central France, not much seen lately if NASA Worldview is anything to go by, a very incomplete data source as to the ‘one-shot’ timing of the picture we are presented. I somehow need high def realtime satellite imagery …. how do i obtain this? Ideas anyone?
Yesterday Friday 23rd July 2021 here NE England in the sky above visible from early and until past sunset in the far western horizon, what i assume to be the west UK flight corridor.
Using my DQA system of a couple of years ago i rate as…
Duration = all day ie 10/10.
Quantity= moderate ie 3/10.
Affect= no dark ‘reaction clouds’ merely a spreading haze or whitening of the sky ie 3/10 only.
Therefore my DQA for yesterday Fri 23rd July 2021 is 10, 3, 3.
Q. Why are these lines in the sky not fading quickly, why so persistent, why widen out to form a much wider definite ‘band’ in the sky, they stay there for hours?
Why some days and not others?
Why sometimes in a repeated flight path, a corridor, a predictability for any one day?
Its my opinion ‘whitening of the skies’ will become much more mainstream, be introduced as such as a necessary step to counter climate change ( I’m guessing at forthcoming COP Glasgow). We know its all futile, there are so many grim interconnected feedback loops, its as if we are having to re-write the book of planetary weather systems, ie DMS (algae), methane, sulfate, ocean circulation systems, the loss of ocean oxygenators known as algae, etc etc. Yesterday I suddenly thought …. “What if our sewage treatment filter bed systems where we use live algae and plankton collapsed due to extreme heat, could this occur? Just about everything else is, its a joke of mine we just about have everything happening other than aliens! So far people just do not seem to be making the adjustments necessary.
Lines in the sky diary Monday 26th 2021, plenty to see in the evening, say six or eight at any tine, including a criss cross example. I hadn’t time to keep looking up at the sky, work indoors kept me busy, so if we just count what was actually observed my DQA sytem rates it as 3,3,2. ie 3/10 duration, 3/10 quantity, 2/10 affect.
Next day Tues 26th July again tasks indoors keep me busy but also the sky itself is obscured, cloudy. However NASA Worldview shows what I from experience see as an altered ie chemtrail sky off the coast here in north east England. ie https://go.nasa.gov/3ye1BXW
Note above it is the ‘french grey’ colouring that is chemtrail, half of what you see above, the main solid lighter cloud presence in my opinion is natural. Click on the link and click to enlarge, this backs up my suspicion. Also, click the different layers and look at northern France ie Brittany.
This is indeed something the IPCC (ie a worldwide ‘formal’ association and so-called working group of bods pertinent to governments, policy, forecasting and climate change) which in reality lags way behind in vision and of forecasting the dreaded consequences of global warming.
So many crashes and disasters seem so under-reported and under-recognised, for instance to name just a few topics …. the Arctic, jet stream, diatoms, algae, plankton, marine food chain, loss of seabirds, loss of salmon, loss of bees, flying insects, decreasing soil health and microbial activity, methane, importance of ocean algae for DMS and oceanic weather systems, even the decline of the beloved wasp!
In my own garden and at a nature reserve I have visited near daily for decades I’m sure theres less bees and flying insects, hoverflies, Vanessids etc. At the rear of this house two out of three birdboxes have been taken over by bees these last couple of years, my ‘unusual’ garden providing lots of flowering plants and shrubs for them, all intentional. Say March to July I’m actually not in the further reaches of my back garden as I want nesting birds and fledglings to feel undisturbed, apart of course from the dreaded hawk that even last night whizzed past my head and I think had caused problems for the blackbirds, a single adult blackbird clucking the alarm call for more than twenty minutes, I’m guessing as much distress as warning to others. I even a few years ago witnessed a queen fly her flightless workers into the birdbox one by one, carried ‘piggy-back’ from the shrubbery and vegetation at the far edge of the lawn, a sight I’ll never forget. She must have brought them in by stages, grouped for the final hurdle into the birdbox. So that is no problem, I’ll stick another couple of birdboxes up soon, made by me of thicker heavier section wood than anything one can usually buy.
The IPCC seems slow and stagnant on everything. From my viewpoint as merely an interested layman I don’t think there is anything that the IPCC is not woefully slow or blind to at present nor cognisant of the fast happening realtime changes, Governmental deficiencies and their consequences. For instance its near impossible to find mention online of the diatom/ bryozoan symbiosis that constitutes a living coral reef, all we ever hear is ‘coral whitening’ but no practical explanations for the ‘mechanics’ for this to occur, why the bryozoans have perished. To my mind the great IPCC sticking point and the professionals that comprise its panels and working groups is the spectre of potentially losing ‘funding’ for speaking out or being avoided and shut out by colleagues. From what I’ve read the IPCC also seems unable to realise the importance of the interconnectedness of feedback loops, Sam Carana mentions this regularly. An example, increased CO2 triggers plants to reduce conversion of CO2 to O …. and their pollen becomes less nuitritional / of value to bees and insects and I think I’m right in saying there is a decrease in nuitritional of green plant food material to humans and animals as a food source. Happy days!
This is from the above link, if this doesn’t grab attention and motivate then nothing will.
Heres a vid below I’m adding a day later, my heart goes out to all the people and animals and whatever that are stuck with these horribly high temperatures. With the attendant drought we wonder if west coast living might become a thing of the past. We can assume as summer rolls on wildfire will set new records, setting more ash and soot onto the surface of arctic ice and melting it even quicker, the big time bomb (of many) in my mind will be when we lose most of the ice as presently visible by satellite, ice extent is still quite considerable but it is thickness that is rapidly decreasing, ie multi-year ice is fast diminishing.
Most certainly as these immense rivers bigger than we westerners can visualise every minute every day supply vast quantities of warmed water onto the East Siberian ice shelf, the home of vast up to 20km deep stored carbon in oxygenless ie anaerobic conditions; the perfect laboratory for the production of vast amounts of methane as well as a catastrophic volume of methane ready to blow. The underwater ice cap itself has luckily sealed the methane, that is now going fast as it anywhere and everywhere on the circumpolar map of the Arctic where it shows white or pale blue, theres lots.
We should also realise the rivers Yenisey and the Kolyma.
Its a simple fact even a small portion of this impending methane release will destroy all CO2 conversion as we know it and us with it, last week at last a news story carried re ocean cloud formation and plankton (DMS) … to my mind too little reporting, too light ie no mention of the irony of diatom collapse (see where our oil and gas originated) and CO2 reduction quite futile. As in the link below the IPCC report is way off target (the usual plain underestimation / reduced easier to swallow figures misleadingly put forward) … but hey … why alarm anyone or Governments when we can trundle onwards with half a smile and half a conscience.
Mostly I know where we are going and this latest s/h windows 10 acquisition seems to thwart new or latest links. I cannot listen to Paul Beckwith now, only a briefer zippier presentation could hold my interest. Names I will still google for are Prof Kevin Anderson, Prof Peter Wadhams, Prof Paul Erlich, links in order below.
And below a screen capture and a link for Siberia, it is big, the biggest landmass and the shallowest iceshelf we could imagine. Yet who in the west until now thinks of the rivers Lena and the Ob? Note vast plumes of smoke from forest fires, zoom in to see the areas alight.
I honestly don’t think I’ll be sat here in ten years time, in 2029, its quite impossible; there is just no way basic laws and interactions of physics and chemistry can be thwarted.