We will all know the Lena and the Ob.

Most certainly as these immense rivers bigger than we westerners can visualise every minute every day supply vast quantities of warmed water onto the East Siberian ice shelf, the home of vast up to 20km deep stored carbon in oxygenless ie anaerobic conditions; the perfect laboratory for the production of vast amounts of methane as well as a catastrophic volume of methane ready to blow. The underwater ice cap itself has luckily sealed the methane, that is now going fast as it anywhere and everywhere on the circumpolar map of the Arctic where it shows white or pale blue, theres lots.

We should also realise the rivers Yenisey and the Kolyma.

Its a simple fact even a small portion of this impending methane release will destroy all CO2 conversion as we know it and us with it, last week at last a news story carried re ocean cloud formation and plankton (DMS) … to my mind too little reporting, too light ie no mention of the irony of diatom collapse (see where our oil and gas originated) and CO2 reduction quite futile. As in the link below the IPCC report is way off target (the usual plain underestimation / reduced easier to swallow figures misleadingly put forward) … but hey … why alarm anyone or Governments when we can trundle onwards with half a smile and half a conscience.

Mostly I know where we are going and this latest s/h windows 10 acquisition seems to thwart new or latest links. I cannot listen to Paul Beckwith now, only a briefer zippier presentation could hold my interest. Names I will still google for are Prof Kevin Anderson, Prof Peter Wadhams, Prof Paul Erlich, links in order below.

Prof Kevin Anderson  … https://tyndall.ac.uk/people/kevin-anderson

Prof Peter Wadhams … http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/

Prof Paul Erlich … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich

 

 

Heres Sam Carana ie arctic-news.blogspot.

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/ipcc-report-climate-change-and-land.html

 

And below a screen capture and a link for Siberia, it is big, the biggest landmass and the shallowest iceshelf we could imagine. Yet who in the west until now thinks of the rivers Lena and the Ob? Note vast plumes of smoke from forest fires, zoom in to see the areas alight.

Siberia worldview screenshot 11 Aug 2019 https://go.nasa.gov/2OPxvI4
Siberia worldview screenshot 11 Aug 2019 https://go.nasa.gov/2OPxvI4

I honestly don’t think I’ll be sat here in ten years time, in 2029, its quite impossible; there is just no way basic laws and interactions of physics and chemistry can be thwarted.

 

 

I fear for and of Greenland …

Any google search for  ‘Greenland ice melt latest’  brings nothing but a picture of accelerated melting, which we knew fine well would happen and the much bandied around ‘by year 2100’ was just a load of baloney.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html

https://www.sciencealert.com/greenland-was-40-degrees-hotter-than-normal-this-week-and-things-are-getting-intense

https://scied.ucar.edu/longcontent/greenlands-ice-melting-faster

 

climate change …

Youtubes worth listening to re climate change …

 

I have a wager, a one sided wager of £1,000 GBP, the other man loses nothing regardless, that I will donate to my friend quite happily if I am wrong on this … that by the end of 2026 my gut feeling is that we will have most certainly have overshot 2 deg C and it will be 3 deg C plus. I cannot see how otherwise, the interconnectedness of feedback loops, methane etc etc

 

Climate change discussion.

Just found this … https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

… its in nature.com so it has validity.

With the temp rise, the loss of diatoms and the loss of coral (erroneously in my opinion termed ‘bleaching) the bryozoans fail, die because the microscopic partners have gone. Therefore to paraphrase trump … “Who would have known invisible things could be so complicated” … yup!

I got the link above from arctic-news … makes for the grimmest reading, but I’m glad its there. As I’ve learnt and repeated for the life of this blog the past year it is the sledge hammer threat from the thawing subsea methane that will stop the pendulum of life. Its a fact, its elementary observation and realisation, things as yet hardly seen that we cannot get politicians or the IPCC to take heed; the latter as generally acknowledged by climate-savvy scientists to be a report twenty years behind; witness the fact that the IPCC does not even recognise or factor in the importance of arctic methane release which in fact will be the death of us all.

Yet can we get ‘the man in the street’ to ponder on these things, to think a little bit more ???

Go back to my post half a year ago ‘making a model of planet Earth’ we are in fact a habitable zone of a wet cigarette paper placed on a childs 8inch football. Thats all we have and so hence our habitable layer is ultra sensitive to change, is staggeringly interconnected in all climate systems, jet stream, oceanic waterflow, gulf stream, accelerated melting of Greenland ad infinitum …  never mind the fun down in the Antarctic.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/01/global-extinction-within-18-34-months.html

Please note I always have my radar turned on for either plain simple crackpot sites or sites designed to mislead or render a subject as ‘nuts’ ie misinformation. Beware that general media can be ‘loaded’ in this respect. My own beef being bbc radio news r4 being so un-crtical of trump and their choice of words actually sounding to support him or serve him up in the best light. That is what I think is the value of my blog, quality material.

postscript …. we may as well have the video from the latest arctic-news, it makes a valuable contribution.

 

Its just hit me, this year I cannot recall seeing the little hoverflies that used to be so prevalant at my local nature reserve the ‘pit heap’.

In five years time will I be able to see any honeybees, any pied flycatchers here in the UK ?? … I think the answer will be negative.

IPCC underestimations …. COP 24

Are massive and most likely catastrophically so. The battle is with nature and the natural world of feedback systems. All were in place, fully functioning and in equilibrium  well before we walked upright.

To paraphrase the twit in the White House …. “Who would have thought Climate Change could be so complicated” … Yes and so powerful and so all enveloping. Its ‘everything’ and its as if the roulette wheel decides our fate on one cruel spin.

Carbon capture must happen, yet so far its exploratory and small scale. And may I interject that for each oversize SUV or needless pick-up there will be a swathe of carbon capture apparatus to offset the crap!

The IPCC for instance does not even factor in loss of Arctic ice; its computer modelling is twenty years behind the times and not one recognised Ice Scientist was on the panel. Its as if we are suffering from collective stupidity, the Brits cannot handle the Brexit problem, the Americans are saddled with an idiot in the White House.

Heres some exclamation marks !!!!!! and a few more !!!!!

Below is a vid tieing in Prof Peter Wadhams (Arctic Expert) and a presentation in immediate response to IPCC outdatedness / time lag / ineptitude.

Salient points ….

  • IPCC much over complacent.
  • Controversial area of geo-engineering not explored.
  • IPCC contains / embraces discredited modelling ie ice won’t disappear till end of century.
  • IPCC ignores albedo effect ie reflectivity of the suns warming rays instead of worst case being absorbed (think Arctic methane) .
  • IPCC ignores increased melting of Greenland.
  • IPCC not factoring in loss of ice caps.
  • Govts can quote any target for the future, yet we all know theres always a shortfall that is excused away sometime hence…

To contradict the IPCC, reaforestation is in a practical world not feasible; timescale too! But it always makes nice tv to see junior school bods piddling about with seedlings… Germany for instance is stripping forests to get at open cast mining of lignite  … dirty dirty dirty.

Also the bitchiness, obfuscation and sheer downright twattery of Science reared its head when Dr Wadhams chapter on arctic methane was omitted from a written book / presentation for a Conference in China (without informing Prof Wadhams)  because we are told the Harvard Prof in charge did not believe Arctic methane was a possibility !!!  Remember that methane will arrive from three sources, geological, microbial and the release from thawing frozen hydrates; all from vast areas previously frozen we never visit nor can visualise in their seemingly endless expanse, ie East Siberian ice shelf which exists in huge swathes of shallow sea.

Interestingly Stuarts presentation included ‘Villian of the Day’ naming Theresa May in which she has sanctioned fracking and fossil fuel infrastructure; I don’t know details.

 

 

Also, a brief list ….

https://www.scientistswarning.org/

https://paulbeckwith.net/https://paulbeckwith.net/

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/

 

 

 

Watch the ice …

Succinct and direct vid and also illustrates the flow outwards of ice into the North Atlantic. I wld have liked more written text but I assume format precludes, its an intentional brief hit of info.

Note also that its thickness that matters, from above we can still see some of the whiter older ice but at what thickness? Likewise Grenland, likewise everywhere. Here 7th Dec NE England its far too warm this morning, car thermometer tells me 10deg C.

https://nowthisnews.com/videos/future/nasa-animation-shows-arctic-ice-rapidly-depleting