The news.

The news saddens me, as a collective effort we seem so hopeless. For instance….

Pulling out from Afghanistan is insanity, a tragedy, a betrayal of all the lives lost, work and effort on all sides. Methinks quite what is the agenda, the reason for this?

The UK lockdown with massive financial handouts (and remember some folk got nothing ie black economy workers, the inept, and a dear friend of mine) can only trigger a dreadful inflation, but also the money will be squeezed from elsewhere. As shown on the news in the last few days, nurses are hardly rewarded for all their selfless frontline effort; Priti Patel is most reluctant to loosen the purse strings and the police are to get nothing, in effect to recede in income.

Dominic Cummings lurks in the shadows to occasionally be caught in the limelight flashing his traitors dagger, so clever a man with his 20/20 hindsight yet his own tenure often created little more than discord and change for change sake; to rattle and to provoke needlessly. He thinks he is so clever, few others think likewise.

Herd immunity in the UK has crept in through the back door, Matt Hancock would never have allowed it, makes one wonder if it was engineered he would be got rid of for this purpose. He has my utmost sympathy.

Does anyone talk about transmissability and how the young are letting us all down; ie throngs of excited sub-thirty year olds here in the UK insisting on raves and partying for no purpose other than hedonistic thrill once that whistle blew at midnight. A ridiculous sight of people supposedly going on toward adulthood and right on the cusp of the delta variant taking hold. Madness and a sad indictment of Boris Johnson, when books are written he will not look good. My routine of masks, gloves, keeping distance and hand washing will remain. Already numskulls get too close at the checkout, I can see I will be speaking my mind on this.

UK track and trace is being allowed to run rampant, far more damaging than the thing it is supposed to be stopping. Is this the mark of yet another Dido Harding disaster?

UK death stats covid linked are too crude, of those able-bodied economic contributors what is their real number? There needs to be clear demarcation between the fit and those never able to withstand such a dreaded virus anyway.

Because of covid vast amounts of people are behind schedule for treatments, operations, or their cancer being attended to. Its tragic dedicated professionals and expert teams have not been allowed to get on with what they do best.

And why has the need to cope with climate change seemingly fallen off the page? I read little news of arctic warming, ice loss, of permafrost turning to mush and the ultimate extinction trigger of methane release. Theres a trickle of news re forthcoming COP but little else, very little pressure if any for us to change lifestyle and values. Commutes, SUVs, holidays abroad and burger consumption seemingly all go ahead at full tilt.

Forthcoming COP26 in Glasgow will be another melodrama of fine intentions but of insufficient real action. The frustration among scientists and informed individuals must be horrendous and no doubt sadly the IPCC will again demonstrate how deaf they are and how far they lag behind. Poor Greta, she must be tearing her hair out at how hopeless we all are. I’m wondering, the IPCC appear so slow they would be better classified as a ‘historical society’ that only exists to write up, record and ponder long after the event.

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ps. I nearly forgot, the travesty of cutting aid from the UK to countries most in need. Can the bods in charge not realise or see in their minds eye how vital this money must be? Scandalous!

the virus in NE England….

All of this is only my guesswork in realising the need to self-isolate, but I bet I’m not far off the mark. Here I am in NE England and last nights Guardian website has a map of  the UK and by estimating the size of the pictorial data it looks to be seven deaths from the virus in the North East.

Lets say two weeks to show symptoms and a week to die therefore seven deaths show the scene at three weeks ago; at 1% fatality therefore 700 infected as of three weeks ago.

If contamination doubles every three days therefore 96,000 carriers are present right now Friday in this region ie north east England. Divide that by say thirty big supermarkets as a handy indicator of populations or areas (and where we still congregate) and it means 3,200 carriers in each of thirty areas across the region today.  Lets use the Morpeth, Northumberland area as an illustration, divide 96,000 carriers by 30 and we get 3,200 carriers in that area and probably most if not all shop at the main supermarket. As my g/f concedes everything I’ve feared / predicted has come true.

I’ve been using disposable gloves for a month, have feared groceries, post and deliveries for the last three weeks, all are left in the hallway for a few day before opening and post and parcels only received wearing fresh gloves that are immediately binned. I operate 3m not 2m distancing and get angry when I see needless waffle at the supermarket or wherever. Remember this virus as with all viruses has never been seen by any form of optical light microscope, only are they detectable as huge populations grown in the lab or by a scanning electron microscope. Covid-19 loves the respiratory tract and is delighted to hitch a free ride on the exhaled air from peoples lungs.

I can well see why the UK Government wants us all to be self-isolating and its importance for this simple arithmetic to indicate IT IS RIGHT NOW that we need to self-isolate.

My fears and prediction of the USA catastrophe is now apparent. A combination of trump idiocy and pay as you go is incendiary to the corona virus situation. His recent cant and BS of ‘all well by Easter’ is exactly the wrong message, this will excuse people to be less vigilant. I’ve always alluded to the similarity of Mao and trump, at this rate he’ll join the big-boy league of mass killings through incompetence posing as ability.

My fearful prediction sorry to say is that our sample area of Morpeth could well have thirty two deaths by three weeks time.  We heard on the bbc radio news a few days ago of instructions for each Parish to locate thirty burial plots and a site for a mass grave. It was unfortunate the term ‘herd immunity’ was much bandied two or three weeks ago, in fact this is what must happen but its not nice to hear.

I don’t think we need much of mathematical modelling from Imperial (no disrespect intended) to see what is happening, fag packet workings are sufficient, all we need know are transmission rates, multiplying factors such as rates of growth and time from infection to death and the exact numbers of deaths in the last 24 hrs. I’ve marked in my diary to revisit this post in three weeks ie Friday 17 April and see how close my fearful guesses have materialised.

I feel so sorry for frontline NHS Staff, badly let down with essential supplies and merely a face mask, ill-fitting pinny and gloves is tragic, to some extent the Johnson Government has repeatedly whitewashed over this glaring shortfall. I also feel so sorry for people in London and also supermarket check-out staff are in a woefully vulnerable position.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019

https://www.theguardian.com/world/coronavirus-outbreak

As detailed below in the Guardian today thank goodness only one country has a so-called leader so hopeless. I think also and I’ve never heard anyone say as such being out of the EU I think has allowed us to react (mostly) effectively.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/trump-narcissism-american-blood-coronavirus

And a day later an appraisal of trump performance yet again confirms his gross unsuitability to be a President of anything …. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster

 

Hint: never speak directly to anyone, turn 90 degrees if absolutely essential you must speak, merely nod at the supermarket check-out.

Minimise / elimate all needless chatter to anyone outside the home.

Make it a 3m rule, 2m is too close to be safe.  Exercise social distancing within the family, within the home, walk out for exercise but keep apart!

Only accept post and parcels with gloves, bin the gloves and leave the items unopened / untouched for a few days.

Wear disposable gloves at all times and particularly if needing to go to a shop. Try not to hop from shop to shop, ideally one shop only. If no gloves use a food bag or kitchen towel, bin all once out of the shop. Use a disposable bag and gloves when gripping the shopping basket or trolley, safer to self scan.

Ideally shed your outside or shopping clothes once home and wash them straight away.

Remember no-one has ever seen a virus through an optical microscope, they are so small, an analogy could be when fine ground chilli powder is everywhere and we know from experience how it can ‘get everywhere’ when cooking.

Avoid fools ! And regard everyone as being a carrier therefore avoid.

The unfortunate but accurate term ‘herd immunity’ means that possibly everyone will become infected.

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